random thoughts from a clueless wizard

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Ms Varima-Garch, May 28, 2009.

  1. let me say this: i secretly hope you can make a living off trading

    the phrase ‘the odds are stacked against you over the long run’ is like saying ‘there is no Santa Claus’ to an eight-year-old

    we dream, we want to be free . . . i do too . . .

    but i don’t want to fall into the trap of ‘learning’ and ‘feeling thrilled’ while trading, just for the sake of it. markets are interesting, but i do want to make money. consistently

    what i don’t want to do is to simply transfer my savings to intermediaries, who have a vested interest in keeping a very high turnover. So they are energizing, galvanizing, stimulating, involving, revolving etc. the trading crowd

    i want to take a dry approach to the situation, instead

    if you’re doing it for fun, or hoping to make a quick buck now and then, that’s ok

    but if you’re undercapitalized vs your expectations, it may be more prudent to stay away, or paper trade, really

    for example, if you have $1 million, and you have decided you can commit $100,000 to your trading account (knowing that if you blow up, in the worst case scenario, you won’t be hurt, it won’t affect your lifestyle), you can probably make, what, 20-30% per year (just a guesstimate) on your trading account. if you’re good. 20-30K per year off trading. not bad, but nothing grand. still ok if you like what you’re doing

    but, taking another extreme, if you have a total wealth of $100,000, and can commit, say 10K to trading, there’s nothing wrong with that in itself. but do the math, and see if this suits you. well maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. but the plan should be balanced against expectations, at least I think so

    the unpleasant conclusion from this is that trading, including day trading, may be more suitable for already wealthy/rich people

    by the way, i think commodity trading is a slightly different story, although, for full disclosure, i’ve never live-traded commodities . .. there are successful people in commodities, and maybe more of them, on average, than in equities. maybe. but it’s a very dangerous game, and you better really know what you’re doing . . . you need to get special forces training before you go into an actual combat situation . ..

    Varima Garch
  2. There's this so-called expert Sy Harding from SyHardingBlog.com saying his return YTD is no better than the general market, which is like 2%. And he's soliciting subscribers. So far this year, I'm at 40%. Sy Harding ought to be paying me for advisory services!

    Also, from what I heard, commodities is where you lose your shirt.
  3. i don't know . . . . i really don't know anymore . .. maybe take a longer term view?

    ‘cat staff meeting’ by seth macfarlane, which can be found on youtube, shows how a more balanced, rational approach can help the investor

    Varima Garch