Each dot represents a day that there was a change in the account value. I will be busy with a number of things for the next several days so I have essentially gone to cash into the end of the qtr. This is an actual result from an account I manage and shows what I have done this qtr. I will start to post them at the end of each. Result was a gain of 15.81% before fees, 12.65% after fees vs the benchmark (Midcap S&P400) which gained 6.4% for the qtr. Brandon
Tuesday was a pretty bad day for the market after the Fed raised rates and indicated that it may not be done. However, as good as Tuesday was, Wednesday was 3 times better. We had new relative highs across the board, Nasdaq, Small Caps, Mid Caps, and Big Caps all had great days. Important sectors also led. We also saw heavy volume AND advancers led decliners by nearly 3 to 1 on the NYSE and 2 to 1 on the Nasdaq. No matter what, 3 to 1 and 2 to 1 A/D numbers are strong. Additionally we are starting to see strong leadership in a number of sectors which shows that we have broad participation right now. Among the best sectors are Oils and Energy, Transports, Biotechs, Fiber Optics, Financials and Consumer Goods. Something I want you to play close attention to is AAPL and GOOG. Now, GOOG just announced a SECOND secondary in the last 6 months to raise more cash, this is not something that is thrilling share holders. However, both stocks have drawn a line in the sand and that is important because they have been clear leaders of the bull market. With out them it would be difficult for the market to continue higher. AAPL bounced off its 200 day moving average almost to the penny. If I was short AAPL I would want to cover that trade. I will be watching this rally closely and the pullback even closer. A small pullback on light volume and I will be a buyer of AAPL. This weekend I am going to come out with a special report on Oil and Energy, but the short version is that the SECULAR BULL MARKET in energy stocks has resumed in my opinion after having pulled back for some time. I have been buying stocks that showed clear leadership when the sector pulled back. How do you find clear leaders? When an entire sector has a pullback, we as traders are given a gift by the market. How? Because as the group pulls back we want to identify the stocks that are NOT pulling back, we want to find the stocks that resist the selling pressure and hold strong. Examples include DO, DNR, DRQ, TRGL, PEIX, and WFT. Please note that I have had open long positions in each of these stocks since Tuesday. These are POSITION TRADES, which means that my intent is to hold them for one quarter or longer. In the case of energy I think it is very clear that we are in the middle of a secular bull market, and that Oil is the most likely sector to turn into a bubble. Please note that it has not yet turned into a bubble, I suspect this is a few years out and when it starts to get bubbly we definatly want to have some positions that have been open for some time to take advantage of the speculative excess. Aside from Energy FIber Optics are in vogue. Some fo the better names include FNSR, AVNX, MRVC and BWNG. This is a strong theme to keep an eye on and profit from, though I think the oil theme is by far THE STRONGEST IN THE MARKET. I think that Japan and the rest of Asia have resumed their upside march. Profits can probably be made with EWJ, JOF, EWS and FXI among others. Gold is another secular bull market that seems to be resuming its march higher. GLD is the the exchange traded fund which represents ownership in gold. I have also been getting myself exposure to the broader market by putting on positions in MDY, IJR and EEM. An important potential storm on the horizan to continue to be aware of is long term interest rates. A move over 5% breaks a multyear downtrend and could have severe implications for the market. IEF and TLT shorts provide a good way to play the short side of rates. If you have any questions or comments, or would like my assistance with your own personal portfolio please feel free to email me brandonlfredrickson@gmail.com
We live in a world with so many advancements. People are living longer and healthier lives than ever before which we all seem to take for granted. We take it for granted until we are slapped in the face with sharp reality and realize how fragile we all truely are. Our family has had that slap in the face over the last few days due to Toni's sister in law Ashley who is having a lot of complications with the birth of her first child. She went into the hospital Sunday night with sky high blood pressure, it was decided that it was so bad she needed to stay in the hospital until she had the baby which was due in 5 weeks. Yesterday around noon she all of the sudden just dove off a cliff health wise though and it was decided that they needed to immediatly deliver the baby or she was very likely to have a stroke and die. That was the plan until the stress of birth starting rising her blood pressure to the point that it was becoming a near certainty that she was either going to have a stroke or siezures, so they had to start giving her medication to stop her from having the baby. In the mean time the baby is the reason for the problem in the first place and they have broken her water, so it has to and is going to be coming out, but they are in a real catch 22. And if that all was not enough she is at a small community hospital that does not have the personel or technology for high risk births- however she is in such poor condition they don't dare move her. Ashely does have the strength of youth on her side, so we are all hoping that will help her and the baby at this time. Why do I bring this up? We all get so caught up in our own thing in the market and just life in general. We think that the world is ending because of this or because of that. Meanwhile a twenty year old girl is fighting for her and her child's life which really brings things into focus. I try to make it a point in my life to never walk away mad, focus on the positive and tell Toni, my mom, dad, sister and grandmother that I love them every time I talk to them, and I think this is a good thing because you never know what is going to happen and it would be a terrible guilt to carry if you had some petty thing going on the last time you see a person. Daylight savings time! Uggh..I swear that the guy who came up with this wretched idea is lucky he has been dead for a long time because if he was not I would be tempted to seriously hurt hte fellow! The market! What to make of it. Well..do you want the honest reply or should I make something up? My mom always told me honesty is the best policy so..what do I make of the market? I don't have a clue. Its all over, and even though we have new all time highs in small caps and mid caps and new relative highs in the major indexes to me the way we are trading feels the middle of a range which is my least favorite place to be trading. Its my least favorite because frankly I stink in a range. However, there are some themes out there that have been working very well, and by focusing on them I have been able to do well too. I just got my accounting finished for this quarter and I beat my benchmark small cap index by over 50% after fee's for the quarter, so focusing on themes works! There are three big ones I am honed in on at this point. Asia (specifically Japan, Korea and Singapore), Energy and Interest rates. Asia has been a big and very profitable theme for me since late summer when the Japanese markets broke out and I put on my position in EWJ at $10.40. I think that Japan has the best reward for the risk, but Korea and Singapore are also compelling. We are right now seeing the entire Asian region wake up to the modern era. The massive modernization of an entire contintant has begun and it has proven, and will continue to be, very profitable. This is of course being fueled primarily by China and then to a smaller extent India. Alot of people are taking the approach of investing a lot of capital in these two markets, however I feel that is a higher risk approach. Japan, Korea and Singapore are the most advanced and stable economies in the region. They have the largest companies with a lot of money, manpower and political power. I think that the corporation of these countries are going to benefit massively from the growth in China, India and the rest of Asia by providing the capital and technology to fuel that growth. This is very similar to the current American model for global growth. The corporations of Japan, Korea and Singapore are uniquely positioned both culturaly and geographically to profit and they have been doing so. I feel that this is going to be a major theme that will continue playing out over the next the next few years. Energy is another major theme. A major part of this is being fueled by growth in Asia. I think a compelling case can be made saying that peak oil is upon us (I plan to write an in depth article going over the energy sector with in the next week or two) and that the energy sector is now in a secular bull market that will last for a long time. We have had a deep pullback in the group since late January, this occured at the same time that Oil futures put in a double top and pulled back. However, pullbacks are normal, they shake out the weak hands . More importantly pullbacks allow you to isolate strength. You do not know who your true friends are until you have a bit of trouble, likewise you do not know what stocks are truely leaders until there is weakness in the group. When this occurs you can find the leaders via relative strength. A few of the better looking energy names using relative strength analysis would be DO, WFT, PEIX, FWLT, SLB, OXY, SOSA, and AHC. In addition to, and just as important as, having strong chart patterns each of these stocks is showing strong growth in earnings quarter over quarter and are effeciently run companies. The lone exception to this is PEIX, but my feeling on this is that ethonol is getting so much hype at this point that if you are willing to watch it closely then there is no reason not to be in it on a setup because that group is explosive at this point. The final theme is rates, and this is one that we need to pay close attention to because it could be the elephant in the room for the entire economy. Over the last several years we have seen long term rates come down sharply and a nice downtrend is in place on that yeild, however we keep pushing against 4.9% now, which I suspect we take out. Once that happens we will have broken a multiyear downtrend, and if that happens I would not be suprised to see rates rally up to their historical average ranges in the 6.5% to 8.25%. These are not actually very high rates, but tell that to a guy who is in debt up to his eyeballs and has a negative ARM Interest Only loan on a house did not earn in the first place but bought anyway.
I will put Ashley in my prayers.... Me and you are very much on the same page here.....Asia and Oil the very best place to be.....You may want to look at Cement (CX, RMIX, MLM, LR, VMC, AMN, RIN) companies and Casinos (LVS, HET, MGM, TRMP, WYNN, STN )as well for US positions, both have shown some real strength recently. I can't quite figure out the oil story, but my opinion is the floor is 54 and if we go to war in IRAN we will be pushing 80 easily.....I look to Canadian Oil companies to come to the plate and hit a homer if the war ever comes....Also China Oil companies PTR and CEO along with Russia TNT will have to step it up if sanctions come into place.....What an economy wrecker if we go to IRAN... AHC---Good old Amerda Hess....I had a nice size position in Mar 2004 and got stopped out at 126.00 last september....This company is by far one of the strongest in the sector and a great long term play.... SLB---Best of breed as well for it's sector SOSA---Great Oil play as well plus the benifit of being a Europe stock ( I have a current position here) FLWT---Industrials are moving in Q2 DO---Great driller Best of breed as well (I have a current position here) PEIX---great ethanol play and I agree the hype is moving this one.....IPSU (Sugar Company) is getting the hype and some very volatile movements as well My list of Asia companies is on my forum---Want to Share $COSTAverageMAN
Welcome to the thread, and thank you for the info. I hope you stick around and would love to see you continue to share. I have also been following casino's and have had a small position, but my problem is I don't know why they are moving, so its hard for me to justify a big position. I have done really well with SHFL and STN though. Brandon
I believe this talk about legalizing sports betting online and poker that congress is stirring up and the great quarter from SFHL that got this sector really hyped......I know LVS is opening up a big mall in Macau...That news broke today, but of course the move was made yesterday....Inside Info..... HAHA It will always be around... $COSTAverageMAN
yes, I think if you are trading large amounts of money you need to be able to play with the big picture in mind, and to me "the chart says so" is not a good enough reason to justify risking the money that a loss on a full size position would cost me. Brandon