Composite: Up-25/Down-75... 1371.40 - 1480.61 1454.82, 1397.74, 1371.45(Strong), 1368.25, 1353.75 Need to close over 1405 for a strong confirm the continuation of up. Close under 1371.45 = side or down. Last 30 min. very important confirmation for the trend for the next 3-4 days. Higher High = side or up. Low around 1371.45 make the Up/Down 50/50.
Thoughts for today #1 is about ET itself. I actually find ET a better place. There's not much arguments or personal debates now. The content is starting get into perspective. When I first started posting, which is only 2-3 month ago, when a newbie posts a question, there would be 200 posts attacking the guy and all the name calling. It's very nice to see ET being a better place. Just a little pat on the back to the moderators.
Well, even though I mention "my first trade", I have 3 of them. First first trade is as an amateur. 2nd is as my EOD Turtle trader, and 3rd is as a professional trader. I'm a very stupid guy. My first trade as an amateur was very interesting. I was already into Gann and I based my trades with Gann's trend indicator mechanical trading method, aka Gann Swing. I was so naive that I just blindly followed the system just by itself. Paper trading was going well and I never had 3 consecutive losses. The paper trade results were what I expected from reading Gann and that made me very blind and naively put myself in the Gann cult. Well, the first trade was Corn. Before I went in, I placed my stop 3 points(3/4 cents) below swing low and calculated the 10% position sizing. (I someone how figured out about position sizing based on stops... good instinct!!! 10% was very naive though) I think I put in about 5 contracts. Woke up early and called the broker and put my order in. That ended in a loss but somehow it didn't bother me. I knew it was part of the plan. I also had so much trust in Gann's work that reality was so deferred. For the next trade, I got a signal for both Corn and Soybeans. I put in quite a bit of contracts, 10% each market = 20% risk for the trade. Actually, I captured the trend and won back the previous loss and also, increased my capital by 30%. The capital I was trading was borrowed from my parents and they told me to take 1/2 of the position out because they thought I was putting too much risk in line, so I actually would have made over 50% return on my account if it wasn't for that. At that time, I didn't have a charting software so I decided to buy a software with the profits I made. I looked around and it seemed as if Tradestation was the best(most expensive so it must have been the best... I'm very simple minded). So I bought the software to make my life easier as a trader. What intrigued me with Tradestation was that I was able to create my own system. I figured that if I put all the Gann Mechanical trading method in the software, I can make easy money. So I bought the thing and for the first time in my trading career, my greed comes out. I wanted to make the holy grail. I started pasting indicators and optimize it. Then I would add another indicator and optimize it. Again and again... I would try to find the ultimate combination of indicators to trade. After 3 days, I've found the ultimate over-optimized system. Also, I figured that if I trade more markets, I can make money more faster so i had about 20 markets I followed like Metals, Oil, Grains, and etc. Few days later, I got a signal. 1st trade with stupid system. Loss. It was OK, it happens. 2nd trade with stupid system. Loss. It was still OK. It happens. 3rd trade with stupid system. Loss. OK, what's wrong? Let's look into this... let me re-optimize it... 4th trade with stupid system. Loss. Damn, the fill sucks, oh I get it, I'm losing because of bad fill. No wonder traders hate brokers. OK, I'm going to make sure I get right fills by getting real time ticker. I purchased a feed service and few days later it was up and running. Then another greed... Let's make a holy grailing entry system. Optimize, optimize, and then optimize. Loss, Loss and Loss. By that time, I lost half of the initial capital I borrowed from my parents. I had to stop trading from the deal I made with my parents. At the end, I was left with low self-esteem, Tradestation, and a blind and naive opinion about Gann. At that time, I was left with regrets toward not trading my style. I knew I broke my profitable (profitted) trading style, I was greedy, and I was naive. This low self-esteem thing was unacceptable for me and I had to find a scapegoat for it. I blamed it on computerized trading. It got me further attached to Gann and that actually made me crazy a bit with figuring what Gann is. That's how it all started. Well, I'll write about my next first trade thing... sometime else.
I got up early so I'll start by posting my weekend journal. It's been exactly 1 month since I'm on my own. This month has been a great month for me. 1. I'm performing better. I do have a little chip on the shoulder trading at home but performance is better. 2. I'm changing. I began as a Gann trader to System trader. Then signal picker and now in a process of becoming a discretionary trader. I'm happy to see myself still improving and makes trading more interesting than ever. Well, I want to change the title of the thread... how do I change it?
I was requested from a friend to code a system that includes the basics daytrading concepts for a new trader to trade with to learn and adjust to the concepts. He wants to teach them to become a momentum scalper. They'll be trading E-minis both ES and NQ. Still, I want to have a list of criterias that can be used for most traders. I want to keep it simple so that the individual traders can find it easy to grow out towards their own style. I don't want to have your complete system. I want to keep the indicators simple and sound. In another words, I'm looking for a bunch of filters and setups for the traders to watch out for. I've included a few already, here's a few: TICK crosses over(under) 0; TRIN <(>) TRIN[1]; Price hitting Pivot Point(I've got S1, S2, R1, R2 in it too) and breakout(reverses) Price hitting Previous Tops(Bottom) and breakout(reverses) I'll be coding them in EasyLanguage and probably make it an Alert type indicator. After I feel we have enough, I'll post the code in here. If you want I'll put it together as a system. It'll be easier for me if you tell it to me in a coded form like: If VIX > 20 day Average of VIX then Buy(Bullish, Strong, etc.etc.); If VIX > Average(VIX, 20) then Buy; If VIX is greater than the Average value of VIX for the past 20 days then Buy. Few more things are, the strategy will be made for the 5-min. bar. Only be traded between 8:30am to 3:00pm. Will Exit all positions at Market close. I'll test them if it's viable, also the indicator used for entry/exit depends on the type of filter so I need to think about it when the ideas come in(if they come in... LOL) So why in the journal? It gives me a reason to be lazy with posting stuff on here...
What if I'm a newbie again and how would I restart trading? 1. Hit the books, Schwager's Market Wizard and Futures trading books, Douglas' Zone books, and Van Tharp's Financial Freedom is must before trading. 2. Buy a charting software. One with backtesting capability. A lot of discretionary traders have misconceptions of what works and what doesn't. Backtesting can weed out those misconceptions and one-sided interpretations drastically. 3. Open account at IB 4. Subscribe to newsletter, probably Tradingmarkets.com 5. Trade, Lose, Think. Trade, Lose, Think.(Occasionally, put Trade, Win, Think.) Would I do Gann? No, not at first. Maybe along the course, if I become profitable. Don't need it but better to have.
Weekly: 1511.66-1259.79 1350.91 1284.85 Daily: 1338.78 1344.76 <- Downside Res. 1397.33 <-- Upside(unlikely) Res. Up - 30/ Down - 70 Hard to say it's bottom for the swing. Unless there's strong upward push... If it's today... High of the day needs to be @ 1410. If Closes above @ 1370 may have hope for up swing... still expect downswings. 1354.12 resistance/support
I just finished coding few of the stuff and E-mailed the ELS to the friend. It's done so just disregard it... thanks for the consideration and sorry for the inconvenience.