In the sense that if I go long I am predicting the market to go up yes. But in the same way I make a move in backgammon am I predicting that I will throw double sixes or that my opponent won't?
Given the context, pepper_john's post was about AMH. That's why I queried your reply, which I now see is a non sequitur.
Exactly, When Beat the Dealer was written I belive a few casino's thought it so funny that anyone could beat the "House Edge" that they advertised they would send a car round to fetch you if you were a card counter. Well we know who won that argument
EMH goes against common sense, IMO. People rise to the top in any profession. Everyone knows the rules of golf. You just hit a ball in a hole. No one has any great physical advantage. Every market participant has the same information. There's only so many ways that you can swing a club. Everyone knows the rules. But there's only one Tiger Woods. It's the same in movie making, poker, teaching, acting, music, marketing. People get ahead because of their mental of physical advantages. Why investing would be *special* or different from any other activity just doesn't make sense.... Google at $100 billion!!! doesn't sound very efficient....
Especially when a few days before it was trading at about $85 billion.? If you ask me the volatility is just to great for all the information to be in the price.
These are various literature (papers, books & patents, total 237mb) relating to Efficient Market Hypothesis, Technical Analysis, Empirical evidences for non-random & random walk in the market. Those who can, profit. Those who can't, more theories. Enjoy. Download here: Primary: http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ZN81D5XA Mirror 1: http://www.megaupload.com/?d=3L8ELA1X Mirror 2: http://patentmapping.com/temp/Empirical_EMH-TA.zip Content of the 230mb zipfile "Empirical_EMH-TA.zip": Publications ------------ A Comparison of Trading and Non-Trading Mechanisms for Price Discovery.pdf A fractal analysis of foreign exchange markets.pdf A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON THE ANOMALIES IN THE MONTHLY CLOSINGS OF THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE.pdf A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street.zip A Random Walk or Color Chaos on the Stock Market Time-Frequency Analysis of S&P Indexes.pdf A Refined MACD Indicator Evidence against the Random Walk Hypothesis.pdf A Study of the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market through Analysis of Ultra-High Frequency Data.zip A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets - Hong &Stein.pdf A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates.pdf An analysis of the advance-decline line as a stock market indicator.pdf An Application of Evolutionary Finance to Firms Listed in the Swiss Market Index.pdf AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT.pdf An empirical behavioral model of price formation.pdf An empirical comparison of moving average envelopes and Bollinger Bands.pdf An Evolutionary Approach to Technical Trading and Capital Market Efficiency - The Wharton School.pdf Back to the future- an empirical investigation into the validity of stock index models over time.pdf Behavior and Performance of Investment Newsletter Analysts - Yale School of Mgt.pdf Black-Scholes Option Pricing Using Three Volatility Models- Moving Average, GARCH(1, 1), and Adaptive GARCH.pdf Can channel pattern trading be profitably automated.pdf Can the Neuro Fuzzy Model Predict Stock Indexes Better than its Rivals.pdf Capital Asset Pricing Model & Mutual Fund Performance Studies - Review and Evidence.pdf Chartist Prediction in the Foreign Exchange Market - Ahrens &Reitz.pdf Classical doctrines and alternatives in decision-making under risk with respect to asset price dynamics.pdf Comprehensibility, Overfitting and Co-Evolution in Genetic Programming for Technical Trading Rules.pdf Cultural and stock price clustering- Evidence from the People's Republic of China - Brown Mitchell.pdf Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics- An Explanation for the Predictive Success ofTechnical.pdf Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics - Cheung &Chinn.pdf Day of the Week Effects- Recent Evidence from Nineteen Stock Markets.pdf Day-trading with candlesticks and moving averages.pdf Distinguishing Between Rationales for Short-Horizon Predictability of Stock Returns.pdf Do Behavioral Biases Affect Prices.pdf Do Futures and Options trading increase stock market volatility.pdf Do Momentum Based Strategies Still Work In Foreign Currency.pdf Do Stocks Follow the Random Walk in Latvian Stock Market.pdf Does Noise Trader Risk Limit Arbitrage Activities.pdf Empirical Evidence on Feedback Trading in Mature and Emerging Stock Markets.pdf Empirical test of changes in autocorrelation of stock index returns.pdf Empirical tests of changes in autocorrelation of stock index returns.pdf Estimating the Fractal Dimension of the S&P 500 Index using Wavelet Analysis.pdf Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns.pdf Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns.pdf Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market - Klitgaard and Weir.pdf Expected Returns and Liquidity Premium on the Paris Bourse- an Empirical Investigation.pdf FINANCIAL DATA ANALYSIS WITH TWO SYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTIONS.pdf Forecasting Time-dependent Conditional Densities- A Seminonparametric Neural Network Approach.pdf Foundations of Technical Analysis - Lo, Mamaysky &Wang.pdf Foundations of Technical Analysis- Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation.pdf Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability.pdf Futures Trading and Market Information.pdf Going Back to the Basics - Rethinking Market Efficiency.pdf Head & Shoulders- not just a flaky pattern - Osler Chang, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.pdf High Frequency Exchange Rate Forecasting - Fiess &MacDonald.pdf HIGH-FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE CHANGES.pdf How rewarding is technical analysis- Evidence from Singapore stock market.pdf How the Equity Market Responds to Unanticipated Events.pdf How to reconcile Market Efficiency and Technical Analysis.pdf Implied Volatility Indices as Leading Indicators of Stock Index Returns - Pierre Giot.pdf Index funds and stock market growth - William Goetzmann.pdf Institutional Trading and Return Autocorrelation- Empirical Evidence on Polish Pension Fund Investors' Behavior.pdf Institutional Trading and Stock Returns - Cai &Zheng.pdf International Momentum Effects- A Reappraisal of Empirical Evidence.pdf Intraday Return Volatility Process- Evidence from NASDAQ Stocks.pdf Investigating the Profitability of Technical Analysis Systems on Foreign Exchange Markets.pdf Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns - Baker &Wurgler.pdf Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.pdf Is There Private Information in the FX Market The Tokyo Experiment.pdf Limited Arbitrage in Equity Markets.pdf Liquidity and Autocorrelations in Individual Stock Returns.pdf Logarithmic Stock Returns leptokurtosis, heteroskedasticity and change points.pdf Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices.pdf Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs &Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders - UC Santa Cruz.pdf Market Efficiency, Time-Varying Volatility and Equity Returns in Bangladesh Stock Market.pdf Market Timing- A Test of a Charting Heuristic - Leigh, Paz &Purvis.pdf Mean and variance causality between the Cyprus Stock Exchange and major equity markets.pdf Measuring Efficiency of a Market in Transition- The Ugandan Foreign Exchange Market.pdf Mimickers of Corporate Insiders Who Make Large-Volume Trades.pdf MODELING AND FORECASTING REALIZED VOLATILITY.pdf Modelling and Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics in Jamaica- An Application of Asymmetric Volatility Models.pdf Momentum and Turnover - Evidence from the German Stock Market.pdf Neural Networks for Technical Analysis- A Study On KLCI.pdf New Trading Rules in Financial Markets and Wiener-Kolmogorov Prediction Theory- A Study of Technical Analysis - Neftci.pdf Non-linear financial time series forecasting - Application to the Bel 20 stock market index.pdf Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior- The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists - Westerhoff &Reitz.pdf Number Preference In Australian Stock Prices - Chris Doucouliagos.pdf On Distinguishing Between Rationales for Short-Horizon Predictability of Stock Returns.pdf On Speculative Prices and Random Walks A Denial.pdf Optimizing technical trading strategies- making the ludicious lucrative.pdf Partial Revelation of Information in Experimental Asset Markets.pdf Performance of Candlestick Analysis on Intraday Futures Data.pdf PhD-A Random Walk through the Stock Market.pdf PhD-News and Trading Rules.pdf PhD-Random Walk Hypotheses and Profitability of Momentum Based Trading Rules.pdf PhD-Technical Analysis in Financial Markets, Gerwin A. W. Griffioen, University of Amsterdam.pdf PhD-TESTING FOR ROMANIAN CAPITAL MARKET EFFICIENCY.ppt Portfolio optimization, hidden Markov models, and technical analysis of PnF-Charts.pdf Predicci¢n de Volatilidad y Precios de las Opciones- El caso del Ibex-35.pdf Predictability of short-horizon returns in international equity markets.pdf Predictability of Stock Returns and Consumption-based CAPM- Evidence from a Small Open Market.pdf Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market.pdf PREVISIBILITE DES RENTABILITES SUR LE MARCHE JAMAICAIN DES ACTIONS.pdf Price clustering and natural resistance points in the Dutch stock market- a natural experiment.pdf Price Exhaustion and Number Preference- time and price confluence in Australian stock prices - Hristos Doucouliagos.pdf Price Movements in Speculative Markets- Trends or Random Walks.pdf Pricing Effects of Recognition versus Disclosure- Evidence from Firms Recognition of Employee Stock Option Expense.pdf Profitability of Momentum Strategies in the International Equity Markets - Chan, Hameed & Tong.pdf Profitability of Momentum Strategies in the International Equity Markets.pdf Profitability of Momentum Strategies- Application of Novel Risk_Return Ratio Stock Selection Criteria.pdf Profits from technical trading rules.pdf Psychological Barriers in Gold Prices - Brian Lucey.pdf Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers- Implications for Stock Market Efficiency.pdf Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns.pdf Smoke and Mirrors_ Charting and Technical Analysis - Aswath Damodaran.pdf Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action.pdf SOME EMPIRICS OF THE TURKISH STOCK MARKET.pdf STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY IN A QUANTITATIVE MODEL OF STOCK MARKET RETURNS.pdf Stock index and price dynamics in the UK and the US, new evidence from a trading rule and Statistical analysis.pdf Stock Market Forecasting.pdf Stock Market Trading Rule Discovery Using Technical Charting Heuristics.pdf Stock Price Patterns around Directors Trades on the London Stock Exchange.pdf Stock Prices- Random vs. Systematic Changes.pdf Stock Return Predictability- Is it There.pdf Stock timing using genetic algorithms.pdf Stop Loss Orders and Price Cascades in : : :