Intraday prices inherently random? God, if only trading were that easy. This thread is so twisted, reminds me of a novel I had to read in high school called . . . Catch-22.
All information is from the past. You can either use it or trade randomly. Since trading randomly cannot succeed, then the successful traders must be using past information to inform their decisions. Or are you you claiming that there are no successful traders?
Well stated, trick. particualarly with dark pools etc. seeing reality is the first step to success in the markets. Folks have a few lucky streaks, and all of a sudden they become experts and seers of the future. In addition, its not the mass of players that move the market, as TA afficiandos would lead you to believe, its the mass of capital and this can be controlled by one person ( hedge fund manager gets mad at a company, randomly decides to dump all his shares) Therefore, if one thinks they can predict what is going to happen ( due to supposed "crowd psychology, charts, etc) , they are deluded. surf
Markets aren't random, they only appear to be to inexperienced traders. Hit the books and learn how to trade. The bs posted on this site really is too much.
This is illogical. are there lottery winners? how about casino winners? Some folks win the lottery multiple times, are they "special" ? By the way, Van Tharp proved one can be succesful with random entries and good money management in one of his books.
It depends on your perspective. For us noise traders without real information, they appear to be random. If you learned to trade from a book, what's so hard about amassing a vast fortune? Furthermore, if they are not random, how many moves in one direction will place the odds of a continuation or reversal in the next move greater than 50/50? Seeing reality is the first step in making money,
There is no randomness in the world. Initially, people called random any action that was hard to model, like the motion of molecules in a liquid. Yet, that motion is completely deterministic and obeys Newton's 2nd low. Given initial conditions, the trajectory of each molecule can be known completely but there are collisions that make things complicated. It appears that historically people equated complexity and randomness. As computing power increases, order emerges from random phenomena. In the same way, markets are not random. Markets can be silly, zero-sum, negative-sum, complex, you name it, but not random. There is no randomness in the world. Uncertainty, yes, it can be there. Some other bozos confuse quantum uncertainty and probability with randomness. No relation there. QM is completely deterministic as soon as initial conditions are known. Intraday tarders lose money because they cannot deal effectively with the complexity of the market and thus, they actually generate deterministic noise.