Rally on stimulus package

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Mvic, Jan 18, 2008.

  1. Mvic



    Seems to be a fairly substantial package and will put a floor under the market. They have been talking about it since Nov and seriously in the last few days, obviously this was known by the smart money players which is why we didn['t see capitulation today and why there were willing buyers in the face of all the bad news. Also explains the weird Vix.

    Bernake will probably give follow up punch with a significant rate cut, at least 50bp.

    Massive rally and then down we go again once people realize that we can't spend our way out of the mess we are in.
  2. It sure seems that way why in the hell VIX laying low amid this brutal selling day after day even when SPX took out its previous lows of August and March?

    Now we are way down and still VIX has not kicked in? It sure seems very fishy here.
  3. Mvic


    Was also fishy that many of the indicies like XLF, SOX and BKX to name a few and some of the tech stocks were not confirming the lows in the SPX. I think the vix was low because the smart money knew that shorts were going to get ripped tomorrow and they have been selling puts hand over fist.
  4. I don't know. This all seems pretty well priced in. The surprise cut in August "worked" because it was (a) the first cut in several years (b) the first surprise Fed move in years, and first for the Bernanke era. The 50-point cut in September was another surprise (expectation was 25) and fed into August's cut hype and frenzy.

    The cuts in October and December, while not surprises, did absolutely nothing to inspire confidence. The stimulus package and/or cut could cause a short-term bounce (something has to), but I'm not so sure about a massive rally.

  5. What else is new? It's gonna be another roller coaster day and extra volatility with option expiry.

    Sure a huge rally is right around the corner. Everyone will be covering tomorrow if they haven't already. Crap, even the Bear Protection team is covering. It's foolish not to take some short profits if you haven't already.

    Just when you think we will continue to slide, the market will backdoor you and rally. Insteady of automated selling in the final hour, we will be seeing major block buys.

    I don't care whether you are a big bull or bear, this is a great trading environment on both ends.
  6. $800 per individual. What is America coming to? Can we not have a recession anymore and purge the excesses? Whatever happened to the raw capitalistic America? Now we have bailouts every few years and panicky rate cuts when we see a dip in the markets.
  7. I just see the market rallying all day on Friday, there is just so much hope out there with this stimulus package, Fed coming up in less than 2 weeks, and people are so afraid to miss "the rally" that they'll pile on tomorrow and we'll probably have an up 3% day and take back all those losses on Thursday. Market is very oversold and the strong futures are not budging at all which means there is very little sell demand at these prices in the short term.

    Prepare for another chorus of "Have we bottomed?" questions on CNBC.

  8. Welcome to fucking socialism.

    The BUSH RESCUE is bullshit.

    What happen to the school of "Free Markets"? Supply demand and CAPITALISM.

    Consumers are now protected from downside...the sheepole are protected from loosing their homes, knowing damn well they could't afford them in the first place, the 401K buy and hold funds are protected from down side.... NO MORE BUSINESS CYCLES?

    What a bunch of shit but they keep killing the dollar and inflation is double digits?

    This will all end in a very bad situation. Newton's law.
  9. Mvic


    Nikkei rallied 500 points off its lows. Yen drop suggests fresh liquidity to the party. If GE isn't going to deliver a shocker could be a rally to remember.

    $800 is ridiculous and who knows how much damage will be done before some sense prevails and those in charge of the country's fiscal health start acting responsibly and start to think long term. In the meantime trade hard and save your profits.
  10. glad to see this. i got long near the close and did some buying after the close.
    #10     Jan 18, 2008