Rally Ho!!!!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Reitberg, Mar 19, 2003.

  1. NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    What you guys think of this ES overnight action? Idiots tried to squeeze it up to 878.50, then it TANKED to 871.75 in like 10 minutes.

    War has begun. We bought the rumor, now do we sell the fact?
  2. my only "opinion" is it prob. wont be just like 91'....everyone bought in anticiapation...interesting to see how it pans out.
  3. JORGE


    No idea where this will take us, but it's interesting to watch these quick spikes every time a reporter speculates we could have already hit Saddam.
  4. JORGE


    Wish I was enough of an idiot to buy at 871, now back up to 878.5.
  5. I hear you, Jorge,

    This is going to be interesting, but all I have to say is, "Sold, sold, sold!"

    I wouldn't long this market if ya paid me.
  6. if you cant adapt to what the market does, you WONT get paid
  7. OH, I can addapt, and I get paid, but I just only go short. So I wait for shorting opportunities and then I go in and cover the low. I just hit the swing highs. I know that it is seen as "wrong" not to play the upside, but I'm just honestly not comfortable longing anything. I'm kind of bearish, and it has paid off.

    So if I'm not short, I'm sidelined. That is a form of adaptation. Nobody says that you have to play both sides, and some people are better at playing one side than the other. That is the fascinating aspect behind the psychology of the trader; we all believe something different, and we all act differently, and when everybody begins to believe one thing, the trend reverses.
  8. Well it is a bear market, so you should make out OK til your last trade! No?

    Good trading,
  9. Vishnu


    I have to say, the action is interesting. 2:22 am, I'm long NQ futures since early last week and they just turned negative on the night. One can make an argument for covering shorts or selling longs:

    a. covering shorts
    - we might've hit Saddam or other critical targets
    - we can do a massive onslaught any second
    - crude oil down to $28 is a huge tax break to the economy but might not be sustainable depending on how war goes.
    - Japan closed at 2 week high (although 1% off of its intraday high)

    b. selling longs
    - clearly we are not getting the expected immediate rally.
    - market (NQ) is up 13% from the lows of just 6 days ago.

    I do note that since 1950 (stats are the same if you just look at the past decade) 6 up days in a row has been followed by a 7th 54% of the time with avg pct change on the positive days (0.41%) greater than the losses on the negative days (-0.28%).

    Should be an interesting day tomorrow. Good luck to everyone. As a side note: my wife just told me she read an article about how 100s of pregnant women in Baghdad have been trying to get C-sections before the war started. War is horrible - lets hope it ends tonight with Saddam's sudden death.
  10. are you primarily a swing trader ?

    what makes you able to hold onto positions
    so loing in spite of everything going on?

    I guess you are able to filter out the intraday noise
    when you trade like this?

    good luck on your trades and health to your family

    #10     Mar 20, 2003