Discussion in 'Economics' started by libertad, Feb 2, 2009.
The last time rail freight was up yoy was April 08
That's nothing...check out the benchmark Baltic Dry Index. It's down like 90% from recent high water marks. It's a bloodbath in the shipping business right now.
OTOH, if you look back at the BDI from several years ago, '06-'08 was an anomalous spike, and shipping prices have now returned more to the norm from '86-'03.
However ship prices have plummeted, and most shipowners are underwater with the banks letting them keep the ships for now as they don't want to become shipowners themselves. And there's a long line of tonnage to be delivered in the next couple of years, a lot with incomplete financing and no market for it.
Obviously there's a limit to how cheap shipping companies want to sell their services, so the bottom is in there imo - but on the equity side it's been murder and those conditions are bound to continue for some time.
Maybe the market for shipping is pricing in protectionist hell. We should fear that a lot as everyday it seems to get worse and only incompentent politicians can stop it
The protectionism is truly frightening, politicians obviously do not read history or must think it will be "different" this time due to their own hubris. Either goods flow across borders, or armies do.
Although there is a case to be made regarding protectionism and its perils, I think it may not affect dry shipping as much. Non-producing basic materials countries will still require this input... as well as grains.
That's a great (and accurate) phrase. I'll have to remember that one.
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