Interesting pattern indeed : isn't this a psychological pattern people are repeating over and over ? If not, why do most traders resist taking help from a well qualified clinical psy who would work with them this pattern? If not, why do most traders not spend more time on demo till say 3 months profitability in a row before going live? Looks to me more like psy problems hidden behind "technical analysis" problem.
That's an excellent observation. I would argue that the pysch problem is supported by the inherent hindsight bias of the very nature of a chart ( only existing in the past). You can see all the psychologists you want, but if you are lacking the inate mathamatical ability to discern what is really happening and rely on pictures instead, you will not make it --unless of course your firm has an edge and tells you when to push the button or your software does it for you.
Well well well, as I am often startled, surprised about ingenious ways people manage to reach their goals ( including seeing really various ways of profitable trading), I always keep my mind open regarding trading. now, I am not a qualified psy, so I can not even say if people go into trading to play out their psy problems, or if their psy problems come from whatever method they use. Trading has really taught me to be super open minded.
Going out on a presumptuous limb, here.... 1. Marketsurfer says, "technical analysis is bogus"... he espouses something called "market drivers". I presume to understand what he means by this. 2. Surfer's apparent perception of TA is WRONG.... as is that of most market players. 3. Surf is partially right... his "market drivers" concept is correct, but it's not the only concept which is correct. 4. Everyone who knocks TA is outing himself as not understanding how to use TA correctly. 5. Proper understanding and use of TA is like "finding money in the street".
Obviously, there is some value in TA as a contextual and descriptive tool, but I agree most traders use it completely wrong. In fact, I'll go so far to say, that the misuse and misunderstanding of TA is not just bogus --it's insidiously dangerous to the traders entire mental paradigm. surf
i don't know if i am wrong, but it looks like TA really brought a lot pain in the past. Is that right?
Whenever you think you understand (about anything), only to find out later that you didn't... always causes pain, doesn't it? Most players, especially noobs, think "TA = indicators". "Buy oversold, sell overbought, fade the double bottom/top". They like to think (hope?) it's that simple. It isn't... while the above is partially correct, there is more to it.
Personally for me TA = price (and volume to certain degree). And I like to buy high and sell low. So far so good. Can't say if I'm noob though. 8 years in this mess.