Today I decided to quit trading the e-mini S&P 500. After about 200 trades and about $4,000 in losses, I have discovered that day trading the emini is futile. In my opinion, the only possible way to successfully trade the e-mini, is to take positions lasting several days, which requires more capital than I have. I have traded with 2 point stops, 3 point stops and 4 point stops. I have tried MACD, stochastic, DMI, moving averages and breakouts. The results have been the same. After 200 trades, my average loss is about $20, which can be attributed to the spread and commissions. My conclusion is that intraday prices are primarily random and thus impossible to trade. I will switch back to position trading the DIA, SPY and QQQ, where I have had success in the past and believe are much more predictable over the course of days, not hours or minutes.
I use NQ and ES to gauge sentiment and mkt direction intraday. Though I do short or long them on occasion during major mkt moves. You made a good decision.
Buckeye, I came to the same conclusion several years ago after trying for 3 years straight to successful day trade the minis. Like you I traded about 3 or 4 times a day trying to catch buy/sell programs during the day. Its pointless and a waste of time!!! Sitting in front of a computer screen, watching every tick, is just a waste of time I found. Now I trade US T-Bond futures, they tend to trend better than equity indecies, and react very well to fibonacci retracements for entry points. Also, slippage is way better in TBond than in equity eminis on market orders, if you trade that way. Good Luck in the future!!!
aside from commissions and spreads, if you can lose money trading, it's possible to make money trading.
talk about eMini, Do you guy this Mini future trader ever use support/resistance for entry or it is just a totally random direction?
Friend of mine day trades e-minis successfully. The key is to have an edge... just having good execution and a charting package doesn't offer an edge.
http://www.dacharts.com/systems.php http://www.talkstox.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=288&perpage=10&pagenumber=3 hope this might help fwiw - I'm in the same boat (down $1600 since Sept 4th) http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=9531 regards doher
Impossible, eh? Random? Amazing, how people who can't seem to trade ALWAYS come to this conclusion. You and the professors that all believe in the random walk. What you did was you discovered some of the MANY ways to trade that do not work. You figured that all you had to do was spend a little on some software package that had the same indicators that everyone else has access to, and the road to riches was insured. Perhaps you assumed that you didn't have to THINK? Your competitors after all are some the brightest people on earth. Do you really think you're going to beat them at their own game with MACD and a few thousand in your day trading account? LOL! Regardless, short term trading is not easy. If it were, everyone would be doing it. And let me assure you of one other thing....swing trading for a couple of days is not any easier. OldTrader
+25.75 points today to finish off a 65-pt week. Guess I'll go back to playing the lottery since this was random.