Quiper emini journal

Got chopped today

I knew it is FED day, I knew I have to be prepared for the chop.
Well I did 5 trades and non of them worked … And all the trades where basically from the same S/R level @ 712.8.

I did 3 trades in the morning.

Trade 1 to 3 – market was testing 712.8 area, and there was a visible resistance. So I sold it. Three times in the row. Was quick in cutting loses, lost -70 USD on three trades. So risk management was still OK. What was wrong here – well I should perhaps just leave the trades alone from the beginning. Especially after the price action penetrated the S/R level so much after my first trade.

Then I waited for FED to see some volatility.

But FED was really weak today. No trend. When the price got above the 713 area, I felt the market could be overbought. ES and TF did new HOD, but YM didn’t have the power to do that. So my plan was to try to short the market on some pullback. I was very inpatient with Trade 4. More over, I got too married into the trade. I could end this trade on much better price several times. This was really the main mistake of the day – trade management of this trade. -100 USD.

Trade 5 was last attempt to trade this area. Market finally did moved a bit in my direction, but I was hopping for some volatility move after all this crap. Did not happed. Leaved MFE +140 on the table and got out with B/E.

Total P/L for the day -170 USD

 

and the afternoon trading

 

quiper, nice journal, I will surely follow it. So you missed that dive and V reversal all together hah? Good choice, it was messy.

 

2010/11/4

Market opened with major gap up. I felt this will be one of the days where they will try to push it higher. I remember days not too long ago where I would try to short this all the day and would lost a lot of money.

This time, I was buying. I was buying the whole morning. Made 7 trades, still got chopped as the market was again so slow and ended negative. Will not continue today as I have already done more trades that I wish to do for the whole day and because this low environment is so difficult to trade for me.

Trade 1 – the blue line is todays open of the market. YM and ES where rising, TF was very slow. I bought the S/R. But the market was very slow it I got too emotional. I didn’t wait for the retest and got into market too early (727.5 the S/R was @ 727). The market went few ticks again my position and I made trading mistake. I exited the trade at S/R level (was afraid of breakout), but this is not in my plan. Emotional mistake. -40 USD.

Trade 2 – Reentered the Trade 1 as i felt it was a mistake to close the position. This time good management. Got out with two ticks just before the market turned.

Trade 3 – Tried to play breakout trade, but the market was just too choppy for that. Exited with -20 USD. I am happy with the exit in this situation, even tough it turned out this would be profitable trade.

Trade 4 – Bought the retest of Todays open again and was hoping for at least HOD. Didn’t happen exited with +100 USD.

Trade 5 – I was trading pullback from todays HOD. Valid play, but I was anticipating much faster rejection of the area (and that is why I entered few ticks before the level). I got out with -20 when the market didn’t reject the price. This was good trade regarding my plan.

Trade 6 – As market seemed that it will go up and just takes out the stops that are at B/E from the pullback to HOD, I tried to enter there. Didn’t work -30 USD.

Trade 7 - The price stalled at the level again. Last attempt to go long. The market didn’t go anywhere. +10 USD.

Total P/L after commissions: -8 USD

Summary of the day. I have to be more selective with the trades. I just traded too much for such a low vol day.

Pros: I feel however big improvements to the trading few month ago. I would lost like 500 USD doing 7 trades in such a chop.

 

Hello tstones,
Welcome on board of my journal. I would be to scary to enter the trade inside of the craziness after FED If I trade there, I am sure my P/L would be much worse..

 

2011/11/5

Another very difficult and low volatility trading day. Moreover with a big trading mistake I did via impulsive trade that cost me full stop-loss
What was really confusing for me that all the indexes were really out of sync today. Emini Russell 2000 was actually the strongest one today.

Trade1: I was watching level 734.4 from premarket as one of the S/R levels that could play some role today (blue line). The market was really reacting to this level, but because the Emini Russell 2000 was the strongest market it “seemed” to me that the market has topped and I shorted very weak breakout of this S/R level. MFE of the trade was 40 USD but than the market turned and I was so convinced it will go down I did not take the position off as usual. Lost full stop -100 USD on this trade. This was really bad trade – no real setup, bad trade management, choppy market, $tick signalizing just pure uptrend.

Trade2: Then I was just watching market to go slowly higher. I was waiting for retest of brown line (retest of previous HOD), but market didn’t return there. Then I saw the hammer line that was signalizing me that market rejected the price. So I tried to “shop” for some nice entry @ 736.6. I was pretty convinced about this trade, although the problem was I didn’t have any profit target area as the market is just rising. I took profit as soon as I saw all the buyers are gone at that moment. +160 USD. Good trade.

Done for today as the market is really not worth my attention and I am really mad to myself about the first trade today.

P/L +52 USD

 

Week 44 Summary (11/01/2010 – 11/05/11/2010)

Made 284 USD (number from Ninja is a little off, because I had commission 3.6 USD instead 4 USD InteractiveBrokers is charging me). My plan is to make profit of about 250 USD / week (1000 USD / contract / month) so this number is actually OK.

I was trading with 42% profitability and risk-reward 1:2,25

I do not however feel too much confident about the results. I could have taken just two stupid trades on Friday and I could end negative. This might change when I start to trade with more contracts and I will be more flexible.

I did 19 trades per week.

What is interesting – I usually overtrade on days, when I ended with a loss. My daily results:

Monday 3 trades 239.20 USD
Tuesday 2 trades 172.80 USD
Wednesday 5 trades -168 USD
Thursday 7 trades -5.2 USD
Friday 2 trades 52.80 USD

What is really interesting. I had 11 loosing trades. Only 2 hit my basic stop-loss (100 USD). And both where mismanaged - as I noted to my journal, I was just too greedy and under some psychological pressure and didn’t want to close the position earlier. This was Trade 4 on Wednesday and Trade 1 on Friday. Both trades gave me very good change to close them at about -40 lost (or even better), this could generate +120 of my weekly income – 42% more of my weekly profit. Wow. I know it is not too much absolute money while trading with one contract, but it will be big difference when I will trade with more contracts. Trade management is really such an important issue to me.

Overall I rate this week as OK. I ended positive, even though there was a terrible low volatility the whole week. I managed to make more than 250 USD real money after commissions which is my plan.

Next week I plan to focus more on solid patterns and to refine my strategy a bit more.

 

Summary of live trades for week 44:

 

2010/11/8

Not happy trading today. I was rested, ready, but the market was so difficult to understand for me today and I really badly managed my trades.

Trade 1 and 2. I started the day with neutral bias. Market was slowly moving down and I was playing first S/R level @ 733.4 from yesterday. It turned out this was not strong S/R level. The first trade was small looser -54 USD. But I was watching that the price reacted to level of today’s open (brown line). I did try to sell it, trade had 60 USD MFE, I moved stop to B/E + 1 but got -2 ticks slip. The markets are so thin.. -14 USD.

Trade 3. Stupid trade – was trying to fade strong TF comparing to ES and YM. But didnt have any strong S/R level, duped the trade as soon as I saw the momentum is gone. +6 USD.

Trade 4 – Market breaks S/R level and I tried to sell it as resistance. The market was total mess. I gave the trade so much room, but it just didn’t want to go anywhere. Good decision to kill the trade as price action was just choppy. +6 USD.

Trade 5 – Second stupid trade of the day. This was really trading mistake. I bought the market just before lower high. No excuse for that -74 USD.

Trade 6 – Very good entry. TF was the weakest index and overall the markets didn’t look for going down. ES made new low but YM didn’t. Waited for confirmation and went long on very good entry. I was thinking the market could go really high and I should hold to the position. Well the markets were so slow. And I was inpatient. Got just +56 USD from the trade. This is not good.

Trade 7 – this is very interesting as I start to recognize my most loosing pattern – I sell breaks before they happen. This time it was looser again. But I finally realized today what I am doing wrong so hopefully this will not happen again (too often). -64 USD.

Trade 8. I was so frustrated to see that the markets go exactly to pivot area @ 735.4 where I was thinking I would ended runner from trade 6 ( if I had any). I decided to try to buy pullback on VERY strong S/R level. My entry was just perfect and I had to sit about 20 minutes before the market just took off. But I was very confident with the trade. I was watching crude oil and everything seemed quite moving up. I was targeting 735.7, which would generate good profit of 340 USD. Well, I ended the trade in the exact moment before it finally took off with profit just +66 USD.

Just too much trades and too much management error for one day. My trade management was really bad today.

Total P/L -72 USD

 

2010/11/9
I wish the volatility is back in the markets. I am just chopped any time I get into market.

Trade 1 - shorted the open @ 737.4 as TF was hesitating while YM and ES were already heading down. Risk 30 USD. Got out at B/E. Well this happens +6 USD.

Trade 2 - found very light S/R level @ 736.2. Got short but the market really didn’t react to the S/R level. I was risking 100 USD in this trade aiming at market low (profit potential about 200 USD). I did have to take some heat (MAE 60 USD) which was already signalizing me that the trade is not going OK. I closed the trade at B/E which was good decision although after few minutes the market really dropped. But at the point of decision it was pure gamble as the market was really undecided. +6 USD

Trade 3 – trying to fade bottom. Markets were dead and only TF was doing new low of the day. I tried to buy it with small stop 50 USD. Well didn’t work, but this was OK trade in my view. Very limited risk and good potential reward. -54 USD

Trade 4 – 5. Trying again trade 3. I did like the price action on other equities. Non of them were strong enough to make new low so I was waiting to some spike upside. Well dint catch any … Both trades together +2 USD.

Later after that small drop I was focused on short side as finally there was some strength in the market.

Trade 6 was aggressive short to the S/R level at about 732.5 that I liked. I was just selling S/R level and that is why I was very strict on my trade management. As soon as I realized the price is moving more upwards than downwards I stopped the trade with -34 USD loss. I see this as good decision as the spike upside could be much higher (nobody knew).

Later the price retraced back to the area. I shorted it again (Trade 7), but the market again didn’t offer any momentum. Exited with -14 USD.
Finally I saw momentum, waited for small pullback and got short @732.1. Everything looked perfect but the marked again got back just to hit my stop. +6 USD.

My entry was still valid so I did enter via limit order once again in the area. I ended the trade with +46 USD as it was so choppy I was anticipating the market will go for the B/E stop again (and it did). Well this entry would bring me some profits, but it is so hard for me to keep in such a low volatility and choppy markets.

I stopped trading for the day as 9 trades is really too much…

Total P/L: -36 USD (the commission I am missing …)


Note: I am thinking a lot about my trade management. Of course I see today that if I did manage my trades with more freedom I would earn some dollars. But on the other hand this markets are so hard to trade for me that I do not want to open the risk too much as I could easily generate some big loss. But I feel OK about today entries. In precipices they all made sense. Maybe I was too aggressive in fading the low of the day (trade 3-5).