Discussion in 'Trading' started by efficiency, Dec 25, 2009.

  1. Presently, the 20 day ATR of the Spider, a good proxy for the S&P 500, and ,in my opinion a more relaible indicator than the VIX, is the tightest since Halloween 2007. Sooner or later we're going to get a move kiddies.

    Direction remains to be seen. My own pet advance/decline oscillator is over-bought, but............ it may indeed be surbordinate to seasonality i.e. year end posturing and/or fresh cash coming in at the first of the year. Wall Street's aggregate funk shun is selling paper not buying it back. "They" devote efforts 24/7 to that process, and more or less is why we have CNBC. In turn, institutions, like lemmings, gobble up the paper.

    Joe sixpack STILL isn't in. When he comes to realize his lost decade as a passive participant, he becomes easier to compel.

    Attached is a crude (not to be confused with oil) spreadsheet depiction since Halloween '07 with ATR expressed as a percentage of the prevailing close.

    Oh........oh, this is the first thread I've initiated in a half decade.

    Ho ho ho, consider it a gift.
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  2. good post. good info.

  3. Which way?...Up or down? What have you been doing for the past five years? :( :mad:
  4. Why..........I've been paying taxes. Gotta help pay for two aimless wars and a slug of bailouts et al. In contrast to the Chinese, "they" don't have to pay me back.

    As I write, the 20 day Average True Range of the spider is the lowest since July 25, 2007.

    Quarter of a decade.

    Direction? Remains to be seen, but an oscillator of NYSE advances/declines is over-bought. Draw your own conclusion(s).

    Shorting? Naw. Not with the number of 52 week near lows at a mere "4". If and when that measure gets to "50", different ballgame.
  5. Yup, as tight as your next-door 40 year old virgin. Just make sure she doesn't wrap those legs too tight around your head. I'll leave to your imagination which head that might be. In the mean time, spread 'em wide baby.
  6. S2007S


    OVER 300 new highs on the NYSE today!!!

    maybe a few new lows.

    Seems stocks are doing just as well as they did in 2007 when the economy was at its best. Makes sense, the more people out of work, higher the foreclosure rate and the lower the rates the better economy.
  7. Since you brought up the SPY:
    SPY volume the first full week of 2009 was 1.45B, it was 1.47B the first full week of 2008.
    Look at what it is for this week. When volume falls by 50% and we have many more HFT traders now, which means actual volume is probably down by 75%, it has to mean something.

  8. Is EACH of YOUR forty four HUNDRED posts as choice as this one?

    I'm too lazy to take a random sampling. Hmmm. must be you didn't impress me. Expert at 40 year old twat, eh?

    Incidently, the 20 day ATR bottomed yesterday and ...........523 new highs reduced to 187 today might contain a clue.

  9. I brought up SPY as a benchmark. The same benchmark most use. It doesn't generally have enough volatility to make a lick. Of course this quietness will eventually lead to range expansion.

    As for the lack of volume meaning something, Not necessarily. Too much typing to discuss all aspects of volume theory.

    The most blantanly overlooked concept is that each fill contains TWO elements, a buyer and a seller. No offset means it was an addition or subtraction from the ax's inventory.

    Q. What does a specialist do with new, unanticipated inventory?

    A. Takes it higher. A process, not an event. Events are accomplished via gaps or halts.

    I personally give NO credence to volume. I transact in price, period. But...........I would consider a lack of volume as being a lack of SELLERS rather than a lack of demand. "Meaning something" hinges upon your bias. Owners are internal, non-owners external. Different biases. Getting in is easy, getting out profitably a bit more of a challenge. Lack of selling is of course holding out for higher prices.

    This is a 70%+ institutionalized market. HFT, ECN's and Joe Sixpacks (including myself) are inconsequential.

    The latter have not been induced BACK into the market. They essentially missed the March to present rally. For me, that suggests HIGHER, after perhaps some form of present shakeout.

    Black box program trading is more likely triggered by price points rather than transaction actitivty.

    One more thing, negotiated blocks on the NYSE do not have to appear on tape. IF they do, it could be for "propoganda" purposes. IF the specialist is on one side of the block, it could take weeks to distribute or acquire without disrupting price. Stated another way, published volume or time & sales can be "sketchy".

  10. Since you brought up volume, attached is a decade of the SPY.

    1. Meaning no disrespect, briefly intrepret the volume for me.

    2. Give me one example of of when observing volume made YOU money.

    3. The massive volume (on what I would refer to as the Lehman slide) went where? All the outstanding (both floating and non-floating) is held somewhere. In this instance, where?

    It's not with the public.

    Pssst, yes, it was massive.

    4. Is there a distinction between run rate and churn?

    One more thing, consistent with the time-tested adage that gaps fill, I expected the spider and hence the market to stall once filled. It didn't. Changed my thinking and I remain rigid with 40 year old twats.
    #10     Jan 12, 2010