quick ? about trading futures

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ChrisMMM, Feb 6, 2007.

  1. If you were going to trade the YM. How many contracts would you have to trade in order to move the price. Like with (1) contract you ain't gonna effect price @ all, but what # of contracts is it that you start to move prices?

  2. Okay, I will bite.

    As far as I am concerned this is a silly question. Yes, at times you can (or so it would appear) move the price with a single contract. Albeit for a nanosecond.

    Any of the futures contracts trade enough volume that even if you did move them, they could be pushed right back to where they started from (and then some).

    So if you think you can come in with a 100 or even a 1000 contracts and make a dent such that you get something started, in order to cash out later, think again.



  3. I have seen YM get moved 30 points with 20 contracts @ 1:00 am cst.
  4. i don't believe it. what about he the 5 trillion dollar underlying index. aren't there enough bots out there that arb the two. i call bs. post an example if your serious.
  5. his fallacy is inferring causation from correlation

    he saw that the price rose X points on Y contracts and INFERRED that it was those orders that CAUSED the rise

    clearly, this is a logical fallacy

    just because the price moved concomitantly with that amount of contracts does not imply that this was the CAUSE

    you would have to establish that WITHOUT those orders it would not have done so.

    EMM's in the futes are there providing both sides (ask/bid) at all times, and the futes are of course correlated with the underlyings

    the idea that that small # of contracts could move it that distance is EXTREMELY suspect, so ... "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"

    im waiting for it...
  6. Jesse Livermore would be greatly disappointed. :p
  7. =============
    It varies,
    to condense several 20 page elite discussions on the subject.

    And Notice at top/bottom areas how few get filled there:cool: ;
    top pickers wind up cotton pickers.:D