I agree. Further I feel that once the dependent variable begins to makes snese (Price formations of two or three bars.), then you can begin to develop the independent variable and a leading indicator of the dependent variable. Look at braincell's quoted elements. He is into stats and only gets a few overlapping quoted elements. He is working out things to get all the elements. My attached chart is a little crude because the platform is not current with the market operating system logic. It turns out, as braincell suggests, that there are a finite number of elements. Collecting them happens as suggested in the quote above from Dom993. Christmas can be calculated if a person wishes. I posted the trades up to the exit at the top of the FOMC lateral. ( I mistook the ES journal as a trader's forum). After the lat retro consider it as a restart on the LAT REV's. A point is 2500 bucks in my case.
I tried to post page 4 of my log three different ways (gif, jpg and word) but it is not acceptable to ET. My equipment is newer than 2003.
The size of your files is probably too big. Create for example a Dropbox account. Put your files there and then put the links in your ET posts.
Hi Jack, first some humor... It looks like you drew two channels at the beginning. But it also looks like you quickly gave up. The second channel seems to be invalid. It was drawn without following your own guidelines for drawing channels. ;-)
Example: (Assumes Gaussian return distribution with no skew or kurtosis) Calculate the future price X that is "x" standard deviations from the current price S. X = exp(sigma*t*x)*S t = sqrt(365/365) = 1 sigma = 11.61% S = 444.27 x = 1 therefore: X = exp(0.1161*1*1)*444.27 = 498.95 btw, 1 standard deviation gives an 84% probability of the price being below the future price in one year. If you want a 90% probability, use 1.27 standard deviations. Use the formula =normsdist(1.27) in Excel to get the percent.
Ahh I see, how much return or actual profit from this method exactly ? Is it scalable, have you raised a few million to start ?
My best day was 17 points on 100K shares You are new so google the commentary. I was trading 11 accounts, all on limited POA's. (including 3 or 4 handicapped adult offspring; I trade POA's as a courtesy) No, not scaleable, so I use three approaches from one paradigm. You can google the definitions of the annual for each of the three. I can't answer about "retrurn" or "actual profit" what is the context of these in your lingo? They sound like formulae used over time periods. dom993 uses the term "Christmas". This started for me in 1957. My definition of "full time trader" is a person who has to trade every day to make his lifestyle needs. I reached "freedom" in 1957. This means not having a workplace.
Now serious again... Hi Jack, I have a few questions which I hope you can help me answer. Please see attached image. P.S. Did you succeed creating a Dropbox account and upload your stuff there?