Questions for experienced ES daytraders?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by wtfauoa, Sep 17, 2016.

  1. speedo

    speedo

    You may now have had your fill with comments from people who do not daytrade the ES. I do and have since 2003. My targets are modest and based on average favorable excursion rates, my stops are more modest however and are set as to S/R levels. I trade trends which would be difficult to see if not for multiple time frames as setups occur in consolidation patterns in lower time frames. Simple pullbacks in absence of divergence would be preferable but only occur when they occur. I will take a counter trend entry but only with significant divergence on my two major time frames and may only setup a couple times a week.

    4 tick targets would be a tough way to go as Placing stops lower would likely not be effective and you would need a high win/loss % to make it work...tough.

    Some of the other comments on here hold true as the ES can be flat and choppy at times but trading ANY instrument requires patience and discipline. The good news is one becomes familiar with it's behavior over time and it will accommodate size. There are more dynamic markets but to each ones own....good luck.
     
    #41     Sep 19, 2016
  2. wtfauoa

    wtfauoa

    I decided to do 2 trades today on ES. The first one was a risk of $150 to make $150 which worked out ok. The second one was a risk of $50 to make $75, which also worked out ok but was very difficult and I made a few mistakes. After I got filled on the second one price came along and sat on my take profit order of 2132.50 but I was not filled. It left very quickly and went back up. When it came back the second time I was filled, and it then dropped a small bit lower to 2131.50 and then went back up again. I should have been ready to close out my position the first time and will watch more closely the next time I try it. I decided to sit out the closing few minutes and have a look at how price behaved. Does any ES daytrader here trade the closing few minutes of US stock market, as it looks very tradeable with not too much risk involved?

    [​IMG]
     
    #42     Sep 19, 2016
  3. wtfauoa

    wtfauoa

    @speedo a few questions if you don't mind. Thank you.

    1. What do you mean by "average favorable excursion rates"?
    2. What do you mean by " in absence of divergence" or, divergence with what?
     
    #43     Sep 19, 2016
  4. wtfauoa

    wtfauoa

    @Handle123 I have looked at the first hour for stocks, but not for ES. A few questions if you don't mind. Thank you.

    1. Why do you think volume is significant on the 1 min chart for ES?
    2. What can bollinger bands show that chart patterns can not show?
    3. What is so significant about the 60 min chart, say as opposed to the 30 min chart?
    4. Why do you average down on trades, as is this not adding to losers to recover losses when wrong instead of adding to winners to maximize gains when correct?
    5. Why do you not expect anything, as is it not better to have targets and take the profits when targets are hit. How does this equate to stress?
     
    #44     Sep 19, 2016
  5. speedo

    speedo

    1. Move in the direction of the trade prior to a retracement. There are some operational distinctions which will vary from trader to trader, you have to develop your own.
    2. I use a double stochastic oscillator. Other than the aforementioned double divergence ( 2 time frames), they are not signals themselves but serve to filter entries. As with #1, these were developed through observation and testing.
     
    #45     Sep 19, 2016
  6. wtfauoa

    wtfauoa

    1. Let me see if I have this right? You said "My targets are modest and based on average favorable excursion rates" which means your targets are based on a "Move in the direction of the trade prior to a retracement". I am a bit confused about this? Do you mean that your targets are based on a previous move amount before price retraces some, and when it retraces you measure the previous move amount to work out your target if the trend resumes it's original direction?
    2. I understand this now. I took divergence meaning divergence between the major indices levels.
     
    #46     Sep 19, 2016
  7. speedo

    speedo

    I found a sweet spot in mean moves on the ES. It sometimes goes well beyond that before it retraces which used to bother me but I am looking for a piece of moves. My gains exceed and out number my losses and at the end of the day, that's good enough for me.
     
    #47     Sep 19, 2016
    Apophenia likes this.
  8. That's what I am doing too but I have no directional bias (Do you have one ?) ... Just take what comes first. However I don't manage my downside very well ... Since there's a high probability for breaking (at least) even plus the fact that I am well undercapitalized. No Good I know I've been wiped out friday 9th due to a false sense of security (Low Vol Holidays + BE%). One need no more than 0.01 P(Loss) just to blow up with mismanagement.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2016
    #48     Sep 19, 2016
  9. speedo

    speedo

    My directional bias comes from my upper time frame with lower time and oscillator filters. My personal margin comfort level is 5000-6000 per contract. I can certainly do as well on less but if it compromises my comfort level, it's not worth it. Starting out trading with minimum capital requirements and expecting to succeed is difficult to impossible.
     
    #49     Sep 19, 2016
    Apophenia and Overnight like this.
  10. I should review my trades and drop those in sync with the Prevailing & Higher TF Bias to compare performance. What's your %Risk with 5K margin ? Sure, you better be at your ease while trading. Agree for the minimum capital requirements however this alone ain't what determines success or failure but, definitely, sufficient capital allows one to stay (longer) in the game. Sure it's going to be from harder to impossible but Infinite Capital and Zero Skills doesn't work neither.
     
    #50     Sep 19, 2016