Questions for experienced daytraders

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by CheckM8t, Mar 31, 2011.

  1. 120 cent ranging days are the nothing days, they are acceptable part of trading .

    One solid win after 8 to 9 draws losses is no easy on the emotions and mindset.After 8 to 9 draws /losses the humans will lose interest in putting on the 10 th.

    A trader who has 50 % plus hit rate will find it easier to place the next trade , those with 70 % find it enjoyable and effortless , those with 10 % to 30 % hit rates will have other problems like stress, drinking etc.
     
    #41     May 30, 2011
  2. You have just described the emotional limitations which prevent a suggested 90+% of all aspiring traders from success.

    What makes anyone believe a 70% hit rate in trading exists? I don't know a single trader who can average that, sustained. A lot of men and women do for a little while, except for the fact that one (bigger) loss will wipe out all those (smaller) gains.

    70% hit rate is emotionally important to traders who don't have an overall edge they trust. Each loss is a big chunk of mortar chipped from their mental wall. Fear and doubt are the constant voices in their minds.

    I'm perfectly content to operate within a 45% to 50% win rate structured for myself. That is based on a very favorable -risk to +reward ratio of outcome for entry - stop - exit process executed repeatedly. Each single trade and even each single day is meaningless and irrelevant... unless of course it is a big loss that cannot be survived.

    Over time the idea of % correct on trades will mean nothing to you, or even less than nothing. All that matters is size of profit to loss and accepting losses gracefully, without great emotion between profitable sequences.
     
    #42     May 30, 2011
  3. Your studies may have biases and results of some studies can be make believe.Back tests are not reliable because not all inputs can be applied as in live trading.

    In an efficient market the wider your target , the lower the probability of attaining the target.The closer your stop , the higher the probability of getting taken out of good trades.

    10/90 systems can only make money in theory.It can't be applied in real trading due to loss of confidence after 9 losers/scrubs.

    Here is a study

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3197399#post3197399

    Each trader is different and Corniforex is a genius, 95 % of other traders may fail using small stops.

    I am still looking into small stops and set ups with small stops.They work sometimes, but how often ?
     
    #43     May 30, 2011
  4. Say 1 out of 100 actors hit the big time in hollywood, talking 7 figures annual. So the average salary of an aspiring actor is X. If your target is to make twice as much as your fellow actor, work 2 times as hard. If you want to just be average, you can also choose to work twice as hard but just every other day, or conversely, give just 50% effort overall but star in twice as many roles . . . [/sarcasm]

    For me, the percentage outcome for a trade is as irrelevant and misleading as the salary of the average trader. The decision to add, cut, exit, or reverse and double down on any trade is like pornography -- you just know it when you see it. The trick is in learning to see market pornography.
     
    #44     May 30, 2011
  5. Probably 1% or less of ET forum members are professional traders.
     
    #45     May 30, 2011
  6. dejavu8

    dejavu8

    one thing i'm 100% sure is that those are currently running training course for a fee here are not successful traders. some very good traders here offer free help to train newbies.
     
    #46     May 30, 2011
  7. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    If I have a set of rules for entry, stop and target, it doesn't matter whether I apply the rules to a static chart at the end of the day, or to real time price action during the trading day.

    I gave my core rules to a trader. He applied the rules and kept coming out net profitable when he followed them. These were core rules. None of my important filters were in place. In other words, I had him trading with-trend and counter-trend, with no rules for survivable stops or avoiding traps. Still net profitable as long as he followed the rules.

    He came back to me and said, "If I only trade the setups that are with the trend, it's a lot more profitable."

    Beautiful! He discovered something on his own, created a filter and now that will stay with him on his journey to consistent profitability. But that doesn't mean the original unfiltered statistical edge wasn't valid. And there was no way to bias it. The rules were well-defined and easy to follow.

    If you want to find setups that allow small stops, drill down to a smaller time frame to "see inside" the price bars of your main trading time frame. Study until you find patterns that get you into profitable trades more often than not with small stops. Memorize the patterns and write down the rules for entry, stop and target. No one can do this for you. It's going to stick when you do the work yourself. How often will the setups work with small stops? Probably about as often your stats tell you they will, assuming you trade every appearance of your setups.
     
    #47     May 31, 2011
  8. No profitable trader sees delivering courses or writing research as an opportunity...

    These are jobs for failed traders.
     
    #48     May 31, 2011
  9. If they are failed , can they not be considered snake oil training vendor , cause they can only teach the traits of losers.

    Just blew the account using snake oil ,it is kinda easy to accept.
     
    #49     May 31, 2011
  10. If he/she wants to make double ,they will have to strip on the producer's lap , kinda like blowing your account and being without any clothes here.
     
    #50     May 31, 2011