since we have accepted that everything is risky we have to take the smallest risk. i have found that a breakout is the the most risky with entering the breakout pull back a little less risky while the least risk comes from a breakout test which generally comes back to the base of the breakout. this is what i am concentrating on and i found it gives very good results. both a breakout pull back and breakout test must take more time to complete than the main breakout...............
Bo’s mean large risk. The stop has to be big. In strong trends PB’s need a big stop. The probability is high for a successful scalp but the risk is big because subsequent PB’s after entry can be deep. You just can’t have high probability, small risks, big reward. At least not most of the time. There are always trade offs. If you are talking about entry after the BO test ends then that is a MTR and is small risk with big reward potential but probability is lower. If you are discussing trading the test leg itself not so sure it would be less risk.
Remember in a bull BO the bears are, most of the time, going to try and reverse it. That is one reason PB’s show up on a chart. That PB action is bears pushing back and early bull taking profits. In a bear BO bulls are going to try and make it fail. PB’s are formed when they exert their pressure and when early bears grab profits.
to get back to the basic question of edge i think that if you stick to basic brook's set ups-bar counting.......inside bar.....ii, ioi, anyone of these should give you an edge over time
this is lovely stuff but i find sticking to one thing helps a lot for people less experienced than volpri... i simply count the 3 pushes and then the market will correct ........for 3 pushes in the other direction.....market keeps doing this some days for ever until it decides to break out in a strong trend........even in a strong trend you can count 3 pushes but they will be much 'tighter' and the corrective moves will be much smaller and may not have 3 pushes......once after a strong trend you can see 3 pushes in both directions you can assume a the market has got back to a situation where you too can play both sides
the point is if you do follow Brooks to the letter or more broadly[like i do] the edge is there but only if you structure your trading on some set up and method and stick to that method systematically. most traders doubt the method they are using and try to improve it when they has losing streak.........this will lead to disaster... trust your edge. you do not see any casino trying to improve their edge...........
I have this problem... always trying to tweak the entry/exit parameters, it’s just my personality. I’m a troubleshooter by heart, and the great puzzle of the market gives me endless troubleshooting. Unfortunately, that means I’ve spent years spinning my wheels getting nowhere (in trading at least).
i have had the same problem and lost more than a decade and more than 100000 usd. the solution is simple: the issue is that you may not like it [the solution]. you have to decide whether you want to make money, make a living or search for the secret of of the how market works. and trying to perfect something is like chasing the pot at end of rainbow. if you cannot change your personality change your profession....get a job as a scientist in fact my childhood dream was to be a scientist and win the Nobel for maths.....but my parents did not pay the huge amount for my formal eduacation