Question re: 30 year Mortgage Hedge

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by goforwand, Jul 19, 2005.

  1. I was hopng that someone could lend their expertise regarding the best way to protect oneself from potential rising mortgage rates over a relatively short term period.

    We have signed a contract to build a home which should take ~ 9 months to complete. If our mortage is a hypothetical $350,000 we would like to base our monthly budget on today's current 30 year rates using 5.375% as an example.

    If rates rise to, say, 6.125% by the time that we are ready to lock the rate, it would cost 3 points ($10,500) to buy the rate back down to 5.25%.

    The objective would be to choose a vehicle that would provide a profit equal to the cost incurred to buy down the mortgage back to the target rate. If the hedge went against me, then rates would actually be falling which would lower the monthly payment and the loss could be theoretically re-couped after "X" number of years.

    Not sure if I'm even going about this in the correct way, so any advice would be greatly appreciated!
  2. Short bonds of equal duration.
  3. Yeah if you short 3 bond contracts from the CBOT at todays price you will get close to having a perfect hedge for your $350,000. If you can sell the June 06 contract, I don't think there is enough volume right now so you probably have to sell the front month and roll it foward. Tell your broker what you are doing and he will help.