Question on directional trades

Discussion in 'Options' started by whenim64, Jun 10, 2014.

  1. Dolemite

    Dolemite

    You are spot on. No one will disagree that the p&l on a one way move isn't better with the naked but it is all about probability of success over a number of trades. If I knew SPX was going to jump up 20 pts tomorrow, of course I would buy a call.
     
    #21     Jun 11, 2014
  2. FXforex

    FXforex

    OK ...That's a good example and time frame. My numbers are slightly different but it won't affect the outcome.


    • 1950/1955 at $1.65
    • 1950 at $2.85


    [​IMG]

    :)
     
    #22     Jun 11, 2014
  3. Dolemite

    Dolemite

    So based on your prices I am already ahead $140 per single unit, awesome.
     
    #23     Jun 12, 2014
  4. FXforex

    FXforex

    UPDATE: Comparing the debit spread to a long only position.


    • After 1 day
    • 1950/1955 call debit spread bought at $1.65, can be closed for $0. P/L -$1.65 -100%
    • 1950 call bought at $2.85, can be closed for $0.10. P/L -$2.75 -96%
    • Commissions not included.


    The short option does nothing to prevent a loss, but it will cap the gains if the underlining has a good run in your direction. If you want to reduce the $$$ exposure instead of the 1950/1955 call debit spread buy just the 1955 call.

    :)
     
    #24     Jun 12, 2014
  5. Dolemite

    Dolemite

    Wow, pretty twisted logic there. First you aren't getting .10 for that option and I am not closing it for 0 so let's just say they both go out worthless ok? What you are neglecting is that you invested $285 vs. my $165 so who really came out ahead? Yes I capped my profit because I didn't think we could get above 1955. You really think the long option buyer is holding on to that option if we had a huge gap up and theta is eating away at their profit?? Sorry, your logic just doesn't hold up but thanks for trying. :)
     
    #25     Jun 12, 2014
  6. FXforex

    FXforex

    The values I posted are what the current bid/ask is at. Obviously nobody would close them at this time.

    Both positions are at 100% loss, nobody came out ahead. If you want to reduce the dollar exposure just buy an option 1 strike further OTM. A debit spread isn't the way to save money.

    I don't know what the buyer would do, that's a scenario that didn't happen.


    :)
     
    #26     Jun 12, 2014
  7. Dolemite

    Dolemite

    We will just agree to disagree. Keep buying those OTM options.:)
     
    #27     Jun 12, 2014
  8. FXforex

    FXforex

    You are the one that first mentioned the debit spreads in post #7 and you came up with the OTM SPX 1950/1955 call debit spread. Not me.

    In response to your post I was just pointing out that debit spreads isn't a good way to reduce risk and the outcome of the SPX 1950/1955 debit spread that you posted showed that.

    :)
     
    #28     Jun 12, 2014
  9. There is no "outcome" until expiry. You have to hold spreads to expiry -- their value can snap quite a bit at the end of life. This is a useless comparison (so far).
     
    #29     Jun 12, 2014
  10. Dolemite

    Dolemite

    I lost a lot less than you did on the 1950 call because it was hedged, so in fact the spread I posted proved that point exactly. YThe reality is you lost $285 and I lost $165 simple as that. Moving further out to pay less for a single option means you have even less of a chance of it being worth anything. And that gets back to my point, I am not saying the single option doesn't have the "potential" to make more, it is all about probabilities over a larger number of trades. Remember, you are the one saying verticals are useless I am not the one saying single options are useless. Anyway, that is enough of beating this dead horse. :)
     
    #30     Jun 12, 2014