If I understand you correctly, your edge is just predicting an up day and nothing more, and your chosen tool is ATM debit spreads. Just keeping the position until expiry gives you chance for the highest reward, closing it (or hedging or other tinkering with it) sooner when it is profitable gives you a better winning ratio (or in other words lower risk), but -probably- lower rewards. With only the information given, personally I would like to KISS for better analyzability and lower costs.
Please show/explain how selling a more expensive, ATM, 10 pt spread, when you own an ITM 10 pt spread, is adding risk? I wanna know if I'm missing something...
Also, did you think about the situation where your edge might actually not be an edge? For example you might be able to predict up days correctly, but those days are "low quality" up days, i.e. barely up days?
You could have monetized your ITM put spread and gone out drinking. Instead you have a position where you could lose all that profit if you are extra right (and stock continues to sell off) or are wrong (and stock rallies back).
I think you misunderstand my post. We are only talking about calls, PUTS were never part of the equation.. I use pt (point), 10 point spread. If I buy a 10 point debit spread with calls for 4.50, my reward would be 5.50. If i sell an ATM 10 point credit spread with calls, AFTER the price increases, for 5.00, I lock in a 0.50, credit on the whole position, and that's the worst scenario possible. To each their own, I believe OP, wanted some ideas of, how to manage a winning position, beyond just closing it. I offered one of many, yes he could just close it and run, you have made it clear, that would be your choice.
I misread “pt” for “put.” But the concept remains the same. On a zero dte option there will be virtually no value on the credit part of the iron fly as the decay will be swift. it changes the trade (as the OP alludes to). That’s fine if your view had changed; but if not, you are better to close. The call spread was not the right structure to begin with as he realized more vol than implied by the call spread.