Question for those who believe everything is 50/50 always...

Southampton · Nov 25, 2016

carrer said:
Hi Mav,
As a technical trader myself, I could not see a way to find an edge. Looking from the technical perspective, everything seems to be 50-50. The chances of the price to move up or down is 50-50. However, it's different if one is looking from the fundamental perspective. Information can give you an edge.

I am not sure if you incorporate fundamental analysis in your trading decisions. But let's assume it is fully technical. I would like to know how one can find an edge with technical analysis?
Because in the end, everything is 50-50, random.

I hope you get what I mean. Would appreciate if you could give some clarifications.
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Yes, real information is a major edge. However, any information that is public is already priced into the stock. It can be no other way.

carrer · Nov 25, 2016

Southampton said:
Yes, real information is a major edge. However, any information that is public is already priced into the stock. It can be no other way.
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Are there any other edges besides information? (technical)

Southampton · Nov 25, 2016

carrer said:
Are there any other edges besides information? (technical)
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Speed-- holding for long term--option strategies.

When i say info, i am not talking past price info.

c.t.yanktrader · Nov 25, 2016

Southampton said:
Speed-- holding for long term--option strategies.
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When i say info, i am not talking past price info.

ct.yanktrader · Nov 26, 2016

c.t.yanktrader said:
When i say info, i am not talking past price info.
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pinabetal · Nov 27, 2016

trdes said:
I don't understand, I didn't post a chart, nor do I recall birzos posting a chart. Not sure why you quoted me?
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Mistake it wasnt your chart

pinabetal · Nov 27, 2016

Mtrader said:
He made a mistake. Apparently a lot of people don't have the ability to read correct who is posting what. ET is far from Elite, that's clear.
The chart was posted by the biggest ET guru: Trading Education Buyer
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Lol

volpri · Feb 12, 2017

Mtrader...How do you ever get to trading 250 contracts if every month you clean out your account and reset with 2000 or 5000 or whatever you decided to start with?

1a2b3cppp · Feb 13, 2017

Maverick74 said:
You are way overthinking this. There is no such thing as an opposite edge. LOL. If there were, like you said, it would simply be an edge. A trader either has an edge or they don't. If they don't, their expected return is random. They are equally like to make money then not. Emotions have nothing to do with it. I mentioned Vegas because they really like guys like you who mistake randomness for edge. They have built very nice hotels off the backs of guys who confuse the two hence why I said they would appreciate your visit.
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By the other post, when you give that guy $50,000,000 his chances of winning increase because he can just add to his position until it turns around.

Maverick74 · Feb 14, 2017

1a2b3cppp said:
By the other post, when you give that guy $50,000,000 his chances of winning increase because he can just add to his position until it turns around.
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This is a martingale strategy and one often used in Vegas. You do not need an edge. Simply a true random strategy. Keep betting on black and with a large enough bankroll you win back your losses plus one. You do not need to piggyback anyone to make this work.