Hi Jack, how are you? I was being facetious but I probably could have been clearer. How do you measure a day's volatility in the cash market ($SPX, as in that chart)? I don't know about you, but for me I would use actual intraday data where the market traded. That chart shows the beginning of a day being where the market left off in the previous session and that skews volatility to the upside. Not even your "degapping" (which lines up actual open to prior close) does that. In other words, degapping does not skew volatility. Continued good health to you. Cheers!
I made the post in this thread because the climate of the focus and the conversation was so abismal. We all know the bar is so low for becoming a potential trader. I just picked a few poor examples so I could learn from responses a little more about how things could be so poor for so many. So thanks for your response. I understand that it is not possible for almost all people to find a few pieces of their puzzle and muchless begin to fit two adjacent pieces to gether. This thread demonstrates the situation. You believe the turism that markets are cyclic. Someone did the work and proved it and you found the truism laying around somewhere and blindly adopted it as your own. Too bad for you. You may even use it in the future to come up with a plan or a strategy. a typical person steps over the very low bar to entry and comes into "trading space". It could be as bad as seeing the low bar and tripping over it and falling into "trading space". Get out a deck of cards. Assign "volatility" to their top to bottom distance. While in the deck they have 100% overlap. Fan the deck out. they still have 100% overlap. Deal a hand that is untouched by the reciptient. with respect to the height of the card, there will be various overlaps all relative to the volatility of the card. Lay 10 cards out in a row side by side. Make the left to right distance smaller by overlapping the cards. I think you could do this because you have a deck of cards and you can overlap cards because you are not too dumb to fail at such a task. Get some scissors and put ten cards face up side by side so their tops and bottoms are parallel. You will succeed at this. face cards do not get snipped. An Ace is snipped so one part is nine times less than the other part. snip two's so the mall piece is twice as tall as the small part of the ace. throw away all the big pieces until you get to a five. It gets cut in half so you can throw away the top piece. save yourself cutting anymore cards. you have ten cards. the cards are cut and face up. the bottoms are lined up in parallel. now you are ready to learn something about making money while trading. scan the cards in the order you dealt them. you are now the market and you are ealing bars with differing volatility. They also have differing overlap bar to bar. This gives you more information than before you cut the cards. Mentally turn the cards into adjacent bars on a chart. The height of the bar is its volatility. the right bar overlaps the left bar by a value and this is true for each new bar. As you add bars you can measure two things for each bar: its volatility and its overlap. Notice the ONE IMPORTANT THING. You now can throw averaging and precdicting in the toilet, forever. But you will not. you are on the CW path. you step over a very low bar. you sit in a space and do not reason. you hear things around you. you adopt them and when enough are there, you think you see "contradictions". Well you do see contradictions. you are correct in figuring out that the things in your mind do not work together as a whole. this means your path so far didn't make money and from now on you will walk further and further into a mess. finallly, you see the last straw on the path and you pick it up to keep it as the story of why you quit trading forever in a market that is cyclic. The low bar to entry into the "trading space" does say loudly that you have to think. I is so low that anyone can trip over it an be inside. Averaging and doing probabilities is using a fifth grader calculator. Here is where you are. A door was just opened. You know that adjacent bars are filled with information. Look at the one chart that is souped up. When you sit on that platform, you can look inside and behind the bars and panes. What do you see for the first time in your life? functions and operators that connect functions together. then you see a means of displaying the answer that is gotten from the functions and their operators combining them. Take the ten cards you dealt and the cards you cut and put them into two bar combinations. coulkd you sit in a fifth grader chair and do all of this? Yes. Could your class put all the two bar combinations into pictures on the blckboard. The OP started a thread. None of his pictures are on the blackboard. A chart was presented in this thread and it numbers the bars in a profit making segment called a trend. you do not know what a trend is BUT you can see some from someone who does know what a trend is. If the fifth graders were asked to name the pictures on the blackboard they could. Can you? Lets say your deddy helps you with homework after he comes home from work with his daily pay from his foreman. Your teacher gives you the chart that numbers the bars of the trend. she says to look at this chart and put the names of the pictures on the black board in order to sett what the Order Of Events is for each trend on the chart. you deaddy can't help you with this lomework because he is just like the OP and all the other posters here in this thread, except for a few. Look at the chart where the guy posts two longs one after another. He can't do the homework either. To do the homework you have to cut cards and arrange them in every two card combination. then you have to be able to picture the pairs of bars as distinct organized things in your mind or as functions typed in your computer and connected with operators which cause "highlights" to be displayed to define every new bar on your Order Of Events on the money making trend from beginning to end. the OP didn't thank me. I wasn't posting clearly to him. this post is NOT going to work for you or for him either. this post will be blocked from getting into your mind by what is disorganized and already your belief system in your mind. It is true that you got past the entry bar and you are going to find the last straw and then quit............ thanks for your post; it explains you a little bit more.
Liz and I are making some major decisions. We divided the calendar into three portions and we are going to divide our time at three locations. HI, AZ and ME. When we're not there, academics can settle in for 8 or 9 months at each place. I have finally begun to monitor myself to straighten out the meds and strict diet. I have no cardiac regurgitation and I am at 115 to 120% of my expected breathing performance. Apena is zero'ed out if I always use the equipment combo and change filters, etc and etc.. every sleepin breath is recorded and alarmed nowadays. I am bugged by my extremities getting lesions which seem immune to meds. So I am doing wound care w/steriods. I finished my functions and operators for 100% of holds and for 100% of reversals. I have selected a platform that can handle and annotate (highlite deceptively) everything on my machine and NOT on a central server system. So this means that I use intraday data continuity to get interday continuity. The trick is to not have to keep records and replace records with functions and use gates and kills and resets to move forward in the trend OOE's. I have five interrelated OOE's. The letdown from finishing takes its toll. One of my long term cohorts is in the last stages of ALS, so I am more or less out of control regarding reason and justice most of the time. I'll finish the book on his life later; he solved the PTSD vet problem. Our Constitution turns out to be great for everyone if they can afford it. I was watching the Century Foundation on C span and they solved the problem but they do not know it. (See Lani Guinier).
Yes that's the idea. Sometimes you can go against the long term trend if it has put in a base and the intermediate and short term are lined up in such a way to support a new trend. The hardest part is buying the lows, and waiting.
Tyranny of the Majority. An excellent piece of work, Jack. You have compiled an impressive body of work, and you are helping people that you are not aware of.
No, this is incorrect. Trends have and odd mumber of segments so this is not true givine that knowlege. secondly, to make a statement that is ture you are required to combine functions with operators to obtain an indicator. The signal you may be seeking is the signal to take a countertrend signal. Second you may be thinking about constructing with functions and operators a particular alignment. If you are doing both, then what you get for one will never be the equivalent of the other. You are in serious trouble. By failing to deal with anything expecpt gaining believes by sorting through what you think ar "truisms", you are NOT going to be able to build an approach of method. You may want to consider insisting to yourself that you have the basis of each truism. That basis has to be reasoned and defined and NOT the result of induction. Search Dark Horse for many many examples of truisms done by induction. It is rumored that a lot of people fail at becoming traders. This was proved inductively.