Question for TA Experts

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Daring, Oct 7, 2012.

  1. Daring


    Here's a dilemma I got, bull flag vs double top.

    I can spot the bull flag, but I can also see the last bar rejection hinting lower high for a potential double top.

    Is it possible to tell now what it is or do we need to wait, therefore, missing a big part of the move as we wait ?

    How do you proceed in this scenario, wait or take a position ?

    There are a lot of TA supporters in ET, this would be a good time to help a TA supporter.

    Your advice is appreciated.

  2. Short term trend is up, intermediate trend is up, long term trend is up.......
  3. Daring


    Is it wise to say when all trends align in such way to fade countertrend signals?
  4. Hi,

    My advice would be for you to WAIT before taking a position. Watch the following price levels as potential reversal points to the downside:

    1462, 1463, 1469, 1473 and 1474.

    All the best.

  5. ronblack


    Why do you see a bull flag? Not every correction is a bull flag. This has no "slight downward tilt" that is required to qualify as a flag.
  6. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    Actually, just being a flag or a DT is not justification enough to be able to predict the future. Yes, both of the above are based on TA, but by themselves will usually not give you the reason to trade.

    I would normally use a 2nd confirmation. For example, if you want to short, is the level you are trading off of a significant level. If you want to take this trade long what signal are you waiting for to give you the sign to enter. Also, remember we are looking at probabilities. Can we based on over 10,000 hours looking at the screen and witting down hundred of trades in Excel, see a setup with a higher % than 50% that will give us the reason to take the trade. If so, we take the trade.
  7. Handle123


    Actually, there was a 3rd to make a decision, coming from 2007 highs, drawing trendline to highs on 9/14/2012 and going short 10/5/2012.

    I always lean on the side that I have no idea of what the market will do, so I don't have a clue if I miss any part of a move, and to be frank, I don't care. If I miss a move, so what? There is always something else to trade, I will not ever chase a market, risk goes up, so long as I get consistent profits, I don't need homeruns. And if I only get 10% of the move, that is 10% more than sitting on sidelines. Learning Acceptance is hard to do, I will gratefully receive what the market will give.
  8. Obama's approval rating correlates to the snp. keep it simple.

    ny post...

    But with the US in the economic doldrums, how could equities move in concert with the president’s stock?

    It’s not a coincidence. Who can forget James Carville’s famous line when pestered by a reporter: “People vote Dow Jones, not Paula Jones.”

    It’s clear the market enjoys zero percent interest rates and quantitative-easing liquidity, and if the president wins, the punch bowl is refilled. (A vote for the president now is a vote for Bernanke, too. Romney has said he would replace Ben when the Fed chief’s term was up.)

    One thing is for sure, and no debate needed on this: The Fed’s timing was manipulative and undemocratic; the InTrade numbers don’t lie.
  9. Daring


    How about ABC ?
  10. ammo


    what are the market internals eur/usd,djt,dollar ,aapl,larger timeframes doing? look at the bigger picture and work down,that dilemma becomes one of ten pieces of a puzzle
    #10     Oct 7, 2012