IVAN got me out of my trading lethargy just a few days ago. Listening to his trade after trade after trade successes on shorting EUR/USD piqued my interest - motivating me to get off my duff and make a trade. In this case a long trade on EUR/USD opened at 1.2206. By the next day the price was over 1.2300. The trade was closed successfully. OK, my next trade here up for discussion for all is NOT a trade recommendation - it's just a trade DISCUSSION - so let's get that clear - NOR am I advising anyone to make the trade - got it? This is for experienced forex traders only... The set-up is based more or less on Ivan's awesome shorting success he's been having with EUR/USD. The trade structure would be as follows: Opening a short in the 1.2300s (as I did already this morning). Then following up with more shorts as (or IF) the price CLIMBS. It would be a scale-in type trade (beginners: These are very dangerous trades - only to be attempted by the most accomplished traders). Possibly with a trailing stop loss to melt off positions that get too far in the hole. You see, I don't conceive of this trade as being a loser, here's why: Seems like EUR/USD has no problem lately getting down to 1.2200s. I think Ivan indicated he's seeing this so he's been making huge amounts of money shorting the euro. Well, I've just not been able to commit money to follow his trades though he has been right as rain for the last month that I know of (Ivan pls correct me if I am wrong). His ability to capture profits short trading is staggeringly accurate trading the range from, I think, mid 1.2250 down more than a cent! I am completely sold on his 'profit in shorting EUR/USD' theory so I've concocted this structure to see what other traders think of it. I mean, I see nothing but euro-bull blood being shed if they attempt to spike up the euro during this time. The question/complexity would arise should the euro spike up 200-pts or more. I can easily take another short out 200-pts up, even melting off some losses, and I really think the spike downs would be extremely profitable. Even if you caught a higher range, 1.2300s to 1.2500s, for example, like Ivan did in the lower ranges down to, what, 1.2000s? Still, a half-dozen short passes might be able to be successfully made in a 2-cent range high to low, high to low, high to low, etc. The potential money that could be made for a trader adept at scaling theories may be bitchin - even over the next few weeks! Well, guys, what do ya think? Note to Ivan: My EUR/USD long trade was a flop, Ivan, so if you hit a SL I was not the one you paid. Yes, the price did make it up into the 1.2300s, but went outside my planned trade time frame set-up. I stuck with my trade plan risk toleration when the trade went outside my time allotted for it, profit-wise. More Risk than I was willing to commit to kicked in, and I snapped the trade closed for a mere 11-points profit yesterday before it shot up 130-pts this morning. I was just razzin' ya about your money. current = 1.2338
Great post! I have also been reading Ivan's posts and he been pretty dead on. I also watch the Spot market, however place all my trades through futures currencies. Once I have decided on entering a trade, I do the swap conversion to the futures prices. My strategy is much like Ivan's thinking, however I still need to tweek the entries and postion sizing. I will add positons every 20 pips so I can cost average my position and look for a nice price profit with leverage. At times, the trade does go against for a nice loss. My thought is if I can win 3 out of 4 trades, then my winnings are worth the trading strategy. I missed the buy this morning at 1.2213 on the Euro futures and it took off. I currently have an open positon to short at 1.2357, 1.2367, and 1.2396. The reason I have chosen these is that the chances of 1.2400 being broken since this is the figure and a strong one at that. If I am executed on these positions, I will look to unlode 1 every 20 points in the profit. If I unload 1, and the market moves back up, I will short again. The idea is to position trade rather than day trade the wiggles. I hope I wasn't too confusing. Please feel to comment on this strategy. ***The key question is to know how to choose levels to iniate trades.
geeeeeeeeesh... and I thought Ivan was a dangerous trader... you and Ivan actually trade directly IN the fire it seems. how do you have the nerves steady enough to DO that??
update: we seem to be moving sideways in a ultra-tight 25-pt band. consolidation? it seems to me both longs and shorts are dealing with fried ends, meaning, if the price moves too far in either direction, both sides are facing getting burned unless they are quick to get out either by TP or SL. I've seen, that, sometimes a protracted consolidation can result in a sudden huge price spike up or down. It looks like that's what we have forming here. The Japs (Japan session) aren't even budging this. I'd say each side is sitting back drawing up their next battle plans and trading strategies. remember, folks, this IS a global market - many different interests being represented. (I feel like a fckin sportscaster sitting at ringside) The NFP on Friday could send this thing slamming through 1.2150s easy. current = 1.2334
How do you base a trading strategy on "shorting the euro"? At least everyone here can say they are in sync with market sentiment -- it's only when everyone gets caught leaning the "right" way that explosive moves can happen in reverse direction. So I guess it makes sense that when this thread got all bearish on eur, it spikes 150 pips. That must've been one big-ass fibonacci we bounced off of lol. All except for you skalpz, you were the lone bull. Wtf, I thought Ivan was writing YOU a check today!
LMAO That's how I had planned it! Albeit, by the time I crashed early this morning the price had stalled so many times and it hadn't even hit my first TP consideration - what was it, like, 20 or 30-pips up - and it was really pushing the time limit part of the trade set-up (I had that trade wired to a time limit to take profit). I knew a big news pop was possibly gonna move the rate today and my structure didn't have trading that built in either (it was supposed to be just a small and quick 30-pip mini-swing trade), incase it went against me - I was gonna be writing Ivan a big check - didn't wanna do that. So I snapped the trade shut last night before crashing but after setting a limit TP order for 1.2300. Got up this morning and, man, there it was WAY up there. So, yeah, Ivan didn't pay theskalper nuthin 'cause I didn't catch the spike. I then saw this short set-up and, bro, I think I could play around in this suicide zone for the next few weeks at least! Euro bulls get too fiesty they gonna catch my short from Hell. USD bulls get too uppity they too are gonna get hit with my Long they'll wish they'd hadn't have listened to their bank's head currency strategist's orders that day. anyone else who would rather take a vacation from trading for the next few weeks instead is welcome to just send me a check now. LOL... forex is great. This chart formation reminds me of a USD/JPY trade I was in a while back (Feb. 2004 I think) that started at 105s and spiked to the 113s (yeah, I was short all the way up that time too ). For the record, I think KS96 was also bullish on the euro - he took chunks out of the market on the spike, I am pretty sure, according to his posts on another thread.
I know, it can be difficult, however the probability is low. In my opinion, the euro can be back in fill. Most of the times, the big money is there to shake you out of your position. Once out, then it moves in your favor. OF course, just my opinion. But when you are wrong, then you are wrong.
This is exacty the type of setup I look for. Hard to tell if the market will move 1 way or the other. Since we moved up 100+ today, what are the chances that it will move another. That doesn't mean it won't... That is why i will short all the way up to 1.2400. By then, my average price on 3 contracts will be around .2275. Then I need the market to drop hard to make my profits. Keep in mind, if I get filled on my last position and can get 20 points, I will unload a position. Though my P/L will show a loss, I will keep doing and will be come profitable eventually. I know this is different from most, but seems to work for me.