Dan, Looking at your entries and my study values, I can't say I would have done anything different. With respect to the wash trades, and your question, I'm not sure how we could have "gone in on the away side rolling." (I take this to mean to enter when the price is moving away from the trendline (right side.)) It looks like the rockets were all on the left side when entry signals were given. Sulli, Glad to hear about you making progress, and I appreciate the insight about the choppiness - I've been pondering that for a few weeks. I was pretty sure the answer lay with volume, but haven't had opportunity to do indepth research on it. You guys should see my trading inbox... I think I need to close my lab door for a bit too Anthony
A comment regarding the last few posts. Knowing the context is a necessary element of being in a place of anticipation. "Anticipation" is not the vague word that you see confused with "prediction" and debated on ET from time to time. Anticipation is a place of knowing where you are and thus knowing the finite set of upcoming possibilities. As Jack says, we know what to look for. It is a binary thing; the market gives it to you or it doesn't. Either way, the set of possibilities has narrowed for you as you continue to do the binary thing of knowing what to look for. For me, not all monitoring paths are the same but they all lead to the same place. The name of that place is BO. So what am I driving at? Daily preparation is a key part of being in a place of anticipation. We do our trading intraday and much of our attention is on drawing the lines ASAP on trading channels and their traverses but we do not limit our context to intraday market activity only. Jack says to know 4 for sure at all times--LT, IT, ST, intraday. The influence of the larger context is greater at times than at other times. Discerning that influence is a skill that makes getting the job done a deja vu experience. Turning to the current state of things, what we have is a lateral on the ST. It is tilted a bit to the short side, but it operates no less as a lateral than if it were straight lines across. When I say it operates as a lateral I mean that it is a place that generates complaints of whipsaw and lack of follow-through from people who do not know the context. The word usually used is "chop". For beginners, playing for "rockets" in this context is a tough proposition usually. Rockets that bump up against the side of a lateral do not transition the same as rockets that break out of one. But that is getting into sequences which everyone has been collecting as they gain more knowledge, skills and experience. The context does not end at the ST. The ST lateral is going into a FBP on the IT, and it does seem all monitoring roads lead to BO in an endless loop (continuation or fbo, etc.).
Right on Icarus! I think what you hit on is a big portion of what has been missing in my trading. I think as a beginner at intraday trading, it is easy to get stuck on that 5-min fractal. Excellent Post - Thanks!
Nice post Icarus...its interesting how you're able to condense Grob without making him more dense. There's a lot here, but it's not hard to sense.
OK, I got the kids to bed, now back to work. My trading log for the day took a while to put together as I have not been formally doing this drill (just rough hand-written notes through the day). It should be easier going forward. I did trade a beginner rocket but got in very late and held too long once it reversed, so the 1.5 gain evaporated to .25. I have a hard time reacting to rockets once they begin a retrace, trying to decide to take profits or hold for another move. Looking at the log I feel I traded too much today, but it did not feel that way as the day progressed. I have a lot of respect for the other beginners that are showing the discipline to only take the beginner trades. Instead of holding for the best opportunities I took numerous trades because I thought I knew what was happening. Even though I have only been trading a short while, after charting ES/YM for many weeks now I often felt like I could anticipate the move, but in reality I got headfaked throughout the day, or when I did correctly anticipate my timing was poor. I made a few mistakes that cost quite a few points. Hitting Buy instead of Sell when attempting an exit cost a full point. Worse was trading through the lunch doldrums, as I have been advised not to do as a beginner. My three trades during 1-2 EST led to a loss of 2.75 pts. Details in the log. I got so frustrated after the two point loss that I took a lunch break and missed two of the biggest moves of the day. Anyway, I'm obviously not proud of this trading log but I hope that doing the debriefing drill in earnest will prove to be another useful tool.
Everyone is a peer of everyone else. What makes the path work best is having all kinds of people contributing from assorted experience and vantage points. This is the equalizer: strong contributing efforts from differing places. What really deepens a persons strengths is passing on stuff to others and the concurrent self asessment. We are, in fact, looking deeply into the efficacy of the aspects of the projected channels. The trendline is there on all of the durations and it does reflect (give you a view of) the sentiment of the active players. The nature of opposing views of everything but the common view of a price to allow a transaction is embodied in the dynamic change of the trendline over time. Meaning that the collective progress of the market is in effect until the spell is broken. Spell means the collective consideration of the climate and environment. Active players play in concert not in chaos. The four modes of trading (we, as the frontrunner component) form the dynamic chemical balance of the mix. A MLR line is not at the "side" of the market range. The trendline vectors for us from a side that is special be it a resistance or support type flavor. trendlines represent the "best entry at any moment value" for making money. That is a special value at that moment. Likewise, at any moment, we can view the "potential" of the market to deliver a cycle of profit. That is, the left channel line that is attained (built geometrically by annotation) according to the contemporary volatility. For making money we use volatility as a one way street. We are headed for a reversal on the left channel line. You are witnessing persons recognizing readily when the left channel line is giving an exit signal. As volatility declines after this point of the long diagonal of the parallelogram is reached, we know that an FTT is in the wind before the FTT even occurs. So we see most channels we project actually widen before the end of the channel. If the intial volatility of the channel is not maintained the channel will end. So what has finally come into the picture. When a challenge comes into the space, a person says "I see it". They then get to consider it. In these days it has happened. What happens when we go on to consider another aspect of expertise? All of the former pieces fall, better, into place. In fact, they seem more and more common place. Here are the two streams of thought in the place now. Look at the elements we display on the CRT's and with purpose sweeping them sequentially to attain sufficiency and then going through the analysis, decision making and action three remaining steps of the four steps. By honing the "interrelationships' of the subdata sets, we see that their relative importance waxes and wains over time. WE ARE FOCUSSED. Secondly, the boundaries projected are being put through a mental drill whereby we are getting their significance well understood (a knowledge function). so more and deeper truths are falling into line. I mean, you say in print, that the price has hugged that boundary for TEN minutes. You are feeling and hearing the melody of the market...you are in tune with the market...it at last has a time constant and it reverberates, is absorbed, diffused and reflected within its spacial constraints. So now we are going to begin to OPTIMIZE. Smile..... To repeat the above otherwise......you discuss "anticipation and how to even create anticipation. You KNOW all roads lead to BO.. You see distant boundaries coe into view because you drew them to allow them to come into view. Fortunately you will also notice that my yping and articulation is getting much better....alazz. you are getting nearer to where I want you to dwell and it is where I am usually. It will be easier for me to talk to you. Soon Mak and I will get together..in real time as he says.... Optimizing is using sports memory to really deal in the modus of knowing to go based upon sufficiency. It is not thinking that you have memorized a bunch of sequences and you have the right to predict or guess. It IS the supreme feeling of using the four steps in a staccatto modus where each operation is complete and exquisite and you can cycle the four steps MUCH FASTER THAN THE MAREKET IS OPERATING. It only took two years in ET to get to this place. In your minds has been built the market matrix. You see that the sequences inexitably lead to the BO cells in the matrix under all market paces and volatilities. It is exident that paths are blocked one after another posibility until only one remains. Unblocked operating points are seen as repitiious gaussians rolling along in a strong volume high/ow range that simply sustains a theme. What is optimization? It is the non hold (non continue) part of trading. We will be splicing into our longer hold periods some pairs of reversals to pick off a few more ticks and points. Also we will be focussing on when two channel trendlines are becoming concurrent as the time to hit a few home runs. your prints change in character. they are longer on a day and they have more than one mode of profit value. Usually two modes for the time being. What happens to people who are still on a rapid track for learning? They should know that they will not be denied any help simply because the response that will come is also gluing the Responder's knowledge, skills and expereince tighter together. for the software programmers who love to build mechanical packages, this episode is nirvana at long last, if they have given up the edge bullshit by now. My definition of optimizing is moving to a higher money velocity. It is after burner time. Afterburners are either on or off. Since our focus is on "end effects", i. e., change part of the P, V relation, we are going to dance right on through coarse and medium when it is called for. mark what paths on the sweep chart most rapidly get youto fine. We insist on going through the path and NOT just hanging around in fine all the time. Get it straight there are many many times when you CANNOT get to fine. So this ought to be fun. Our staff is coping well; we have effectively moved everyone up a level of responsibility and those who are petitioning the corp are required to get the prep done for us nowadays. We moved the seminar size up a nitch frrom 40 to 200. Tomorrow is our first dual 200 seminar day. Per week we are adding prospect rosters at the first projected annual rate of business. What it looks like is two or three support people adding names at computers full time. I was granted an evening off....lol.. Selling health protect in a pre-pandemic mode is something else. Actually, the focus is turning the RXxof the gov over to the private sector. Print this post and high lite it. Holding was the theme for continuing to make money now we are going to build on the change half of the deal.
Dantheman, I´ve attached a chart from ym today (i right out hate the tick increment on es so i´m still cheating and mostly follow YM). My limited experience is that on rangebound days, the support and resistence-lines are very valid. The lines drawn on my chart are all drawn before market opened, and you can see they are usefull. You can also see that volume usually increases when price reaches these lines, either touching or breaking through, and that this is not a good place to enter "in the direction of the present bar". Price usually retraces and moves in the opposite direction. I don´t know if this is old news to you, but maybe it´s useful for someone... /Stalker