I believe scientist is right about price moving in the direction of volume, seems very logical in a weird way. but theory and practical application are two different things. Just for fun and to try it out i watched this for a day and tested to enter in the direction of the highest cumulative bid/ask volume. poor results papertrading. So after a while i tried to only buy/sell when there was a significant switch. Still poor results. I´m still a beliver, but just how to use it practically? i don´t have a clue... /Stalker
I have reposted yesterdays chart for YM 2 minutes and would appreciate any constructive comments. As suggested I have used the standard colors and have annotated where I think pt 1, pt2 and pt3 should be, the analysis is somewhat different to what I had yesterday due to the vertical scale, it appears based on this vertical scale I may not have exited positions and instead would probably have held, and in most cases I think would have resulted in better trades, So some questions The vertical scale of 10 points for YM is crucial in successfully mapping out the channels? Where I have a question mark (?) it means I still cannot figure out if there are channels here and how would you mark them? It turns out these areas seem to be a horizontal channel but how would you know that in realtime? The chart marks out pt 1, pt 2 and pt 3 for a number of channels, are these correct and did I spot all the channels? Have I noted too many channels? Many Thanks
YES ANY BEGINNER and I WILL point out the reasons why! Thank goodness you got off the sidelines. Believe it or not, I had been eagerly waiting all day for you to run the course with your original post. At times it is unbearable for me to stay seated. Yesterday was the toughest with regards to your first post. So now, I will expand for you on how to bank this every time. PUT THIS INTO YOUR TOOLBOX! If only the rest of your team could get off the sidelines. This is a positive post to you. To rapidly provide some pictures and beliefs into you, I am going to suggest the following since the previous post I touched on yesterday also applies. However, because you are correctly assessing "BEGINNER" activity, I will address your post as such. What you have shown here is right smack on the head for 2 reasons. 1. The most important of all is risk, yesterday is the absolute best type of day for any beginner to simply HOLD & REVERSE from 2:15 forward and according to what you had posted. It is a beginner SCT activity. You might ask why this that and the third but I will need you to ask yourself this question. I can provide some guidance. I read numerous posts across ET yesterday that said I don't trade fed meetings this that and the other and for one reason or another the consensus you will see in their comments will be with regards to a prediction (ie. the fed will cut rates, housing blah blah blah, market wil go to... my target is blah blah blah). Why so many losers? Simple, their orientation is predicting and as you saw, if the prediction is off, the loss is substantial 10+ ticks quickly as you had shown. For you lets do some sorting of what's what and agree on what a target really is by anyone who uses it. What you had employed yesterday did not have a single TARGET. Note it and note it well. WHY? Because targets are simply one thing. A target is nothing more than a level that says I am going to STOP MAKING PROFITS at such and such point! How ridiculous. We are oriented to continue making profits, why then would you choose to stop making profits. No more targets!!! THINK! 2. Your actions, are in fact actions to keep you on the right side of the market. Since you are looking at price, the sequences you went thru are such. 2 other variables also corroborate where the right side of the market is. The screwup for a majority is believing that the right side of the market is keeping their position positive. This screwup is more about monitoring their position and thus winds up being the most lagging. I'll explain a bit by what I mean by this. Let's say you enter and you accumulate profits... OK, things are cool. +1 tick 2... 3... 7... Then things turn 7... 6... 2 ticks... DAMN... -1... -2 ticks.... REACTION! This is SOP for many. Why are they monitoring their profits. For them, Price will be a leading indicator. Volume leads Price so their is a level of improvement for you. BRB... Conference Call... MAK!
On the posted chart you see a change in direction around 10455, when price hits the left channel line of the 60-minute channel. At the same time INDU is at support. I´ve seen this happen too many times to think it is a coincidence. That is - support from a channel on a higher fractal meets a horisontal support line and a change in trend follows. How can the supportlines show up at the same time? Well, don´t ask me, but I find it interesting...
2) cont... So you got off the sidelines and and made an effort to work out how to stay on the right side of the Price action of the 30M Fractal. Yesterday, I wasn't sure whether Grob was throwing a bone out to you but judging by his character, it was a matter of waiting and seeing how things would turn out regarding what was said. The generality of all aspects is staying on the right side at all times (SCT). You went through being on the right side on the 30M. Rather than throw more aspects at you to work thru, work with what you got. Create yourself a binder of Fed date charts. I am sure someone can pull down all the FED dates for you or you can just google them. For each date, run your Beginner 30M SCT at the meetings announcement/time (2:15 EST for most cases). Annotate all the 30M charts for those dates on the ES and bound them in your binder. Circle the dates on your calendar going forward and make plans accordingly. Progressively work your way thru incremental contracts starting with 1 so you can see what it is to iterate and compound... I am hoping that your binder will give you motivation. Regards, MAK!
Couple of things right off the bat, channels continually overlap. In other words there are never gaps. Pt1, 2, 3, FTT, S, R set the boundaries of the channels. The guidelines for scaling is to get you calibrated. Most apps are programmed to distribute price bars across the entire vertical of a chart. Unless you can calibrate yourself to adjust your visual perception to accord with auto scaling, things wind up appearing unnecessarily hyper/volatile.... BRB... Lunch conference call... MAK!
http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/ http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/previouscalendars.htm#2004 MAK!
Hi Ireland Can you answer a question for me please ? I've borrowed your YM chart and don't understand how you drew in the wide channel that I have indicated on the attached chart, If a channel starts with 2 consecutive bars then my corresponding channel in the area marked is much steeper and narrower that yours, how did you get pt1 and project the Right TL (channel) as you have shown? How did you get pt2, there seem to be at least other pt when prices came back to the Right TL (channel), is this not a potential pt2? Many Thanks for your help
Keep in mind Scientist was scalping for ticks, so a different strategy altogether. When sweeping in SCT the DOM is meant to be a fine control... most decisions are made without ever looking at it. I linked to Scientist's post only because it made an impression on me and I thought it agreed with the realization that Mak described. I haven't yet resolved this in my own mind... it seems to defy basic supply/demand. Note Grob made some very useful posts regarding the DOM in the proximity of scientist's post. Here is one that may help explain your experiences... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=412249&perpage=1