thur bar 19 ... Mak/Grob/Easy - welcome your comments on my channels. I feel my ES channels are sometimes too narrow i.e. too many tapes. The drill continues thx Irl.
There were several great comments today and yest about gaussians and channels. I will look closer at the Q's later tonight after market to see what type of feedback I can provide. The Q's asked are very important Thru 23... MAK!
The previous posters pointed out my error in my post (thanks) - instead of saying "knowing", I should have said "anticipating." As to trying it for myself, I am. A question for you, which you don't need to answer - if you are convinced this strategy doesn't work, why are you here? My apologies for taking the thread off track. Anthony
gerry thinks he must save all the hapless newbies from falling into the evil clutches of the dreaded Grob/hershey. He has read too many books.
stop quoting gerry all the time, i have him on my ignore list, and now i have to see his stupid comments anyway
Mak, do you trade even when the pace slows down and volume decreases, range gets more narrow? since around eleven I´m just watching, no way I can handle it...
gerry, You are coming from a place where veterans have been using protective stops. I posted an note on 11 of these kinds of strategies. Stops are used, as you see by my posting, as a cure for the dilemma you are pointing out just above. Veterans have concluded that they can never know what is going to happen. Veterans then create strategies for entering a market where they do not know what is going to happen. They keep track of things and they conclude that they CAN enter the market not knowing what is going to happen. Why do they do this? It is because they are playing a game based upon probbilities and experience. There is no doubt about that. so they enter based upon probabilities and they place stops in one of the 11 ways I compared and contrasted in my posted attachment. these 20 pages explain how their entry is complimented by their stop strategy. I think you may get what I typed above. If you do be happy and do that sort of thing. Take a lot of stock in all the above and go with it to try to get to be a veteran trader. Veterans like you want to be are not in the market vey much as you well know. They usually have a lot of experience and they know alot about only making entries that have a high probability of succeeding and they do not make entries that have low probabilities of succeeeding. Naturally I have a list of 80 of these types of entries and how they work. You do too I am sure. Obviously each of these items on the list have their counterpart for which of the 11 types of protective stop strategy works best for them. ET has many threads on this kind of thing and you obviously have done the searches as I have to line up a; this info on a chart or two. So what are the additional columns or records these veterans keep that ensure they make the money they do over the years. Obviously the entry and the stops each have their entry strategy. After that a protected position is in place and the bet is on using the probabilities they know down cold. Only two major consideratins to put on the table at this point as you well know. So cutting to the chase, we can see an equity curve that these guys have. You know the curves and their range of performance and that is what a person gains as a consequence of the four elements, two of which I presented. These are vets and they have an equity curve that is decades long. How do they view others? Well they are the standard and anything they are doing is A okay any thing else is a doubtful thing. Why would anything else be a doubtful thing? We know those answers clearly and in great detail. For decades veterans have been pronouncing these things and currently they are being presented tirelessly over and over any where you want to look. I have taken a look in these places. Especially with regard to the two topical aspects I did not go into detail about: exit strategies and targeting prices. I have some conclusions that I will not bother you with. What I will bother you with is what comes after that. These four things veterans do to have a complete approach yield exquity curves that are a standard by which they compare. When SCT is compared the veterans come to the conclusion that SCT is "unbelievable". When you look at a different standard, however, that the veterans could use to judge their performance by, then maybe there is a possible dialogue that could be held. It wouldn't, however, be with me. The standard that is possible t compare all performances with is the potential that the market offers. The potential of the market to deliver capital is where the rubber meets the road. This is unfamiliar territory to you and to veterans as it turns out. so it cannot be discussed for that reason. I, on the otherhand, do use it as my standard. The potential that the market offers is very believable and is very measurable in many ways. I also measure risk by the standard of the market rather than by the standard of a bet and probabilities. Risk is determined by market pace and volatility. This is even farther away from the standards you have and beieve in and that you have been told by the veterans you revere. You operate from the sidelines looking for "high probability" entries. So your equity curve, if any, is based on being out of the market mostly. The amount of time veterans are in the market can be superimposed upon a chart and you will see the mean median and mode. You can look at another chart of the corresponding equitiy curves and see the mean median and mode just as well. wahtis the statisitcal significance of the correlation of the two as determined by the pairs of points representing a given data source? We all know the answer. The answer says, simply you have to be in the market to make money. That is the principle of SCT it turns out and it comes from the veterans you speak of. SCT has simply adopted many many virtues that come from studying the performance of very cool veterans. Appendix A of the document being produced here covers all of this and a hell of a lot more. I am sort of way down the trail from where you are presently. Risk reward gets to be a lot different than you think when a person proceeds way on down the road past where you are. You express a hell of a lot of personal doubts that you believe are the standard. You are not going to ever gain much by moving away from the standards you believe that were founded decades ago. you are out of the loop because the loop has moved onward and you simply are not included in the loop any longer. Notice that 120% of the observations being made on the market by the dream team are done % percent of the time that your quaint methodologies call for. There actually is no way you can get a wake up call and, for what ever reason you cannot understand that the stuff you keep bringing up has been left way back in the historical context where is has finally come to rest. You can let your horse drink the water first to see if it is safe, but we out here on the range now use water teating kits (HACH, Millipore, et al). People in the thread are exercising patience with you and you are behaving as usual. The dream team here is building on ALL the data of the veterans you speak of. the four things they continue to do have been replaced by very thoroughly derived replacements that you do not indentify as yet. the gap between where you are and wehere we are can only be bridged by doing some "modernizing "homework on your part. go to some of the threads on basic knowledge and books and try to pick out a few. I have 34 that i used to peice together the bridge that you are missing so far.