May I ask about your exit technique? In my experience, getting out on the XO of the 20/80 line can be either premature or late. Thanks
Compared to the "icebergs I to IV", the "rockets" are more conservative. They get the meat of the real trends and "wash" quickly the fake ones.
Exits are the hardest nut to crack in trading, imo. I have not found any technique than does not either get you out early or late. If you get out consistently with a profit you should be happy. For me it depends on a number of things which I cannot delineate in a couple of paragraphs. How fast are we moving. What has been going on earlier. Are we nearing any s/r points. Fibonacci levels for equal moves works well on breakouts from hod/lod. To keep things simple in the beginning the fast line crossover works as good as any. Leaving money on the table is inevitable no matter what path you choose. All that is neccessary to get started is to, somehow, take a small piece out with some consistency.
This is a wake up call for you. Apparently, you do not know my alias. The better focus that people can have on making money comes from doing it themselves. You find that this level of work here is unbelievable. You have no referent it turns out. This thread is, from my point of view, a succesful transference operation. An approach is being transferred from person to person. There are people contributing to this thread way beyond what I could contribute as the specific consequence of their merging their ideas with those ideas of others in the context of the questions that started the threads that have been operating for a while. A synergism is occurring. The precursor of this thread was killed by a moderator. NWBPROP ran an inquiry before that. Recently, unknown to me for several days I guess, this thread was dumped into chit chat by another moderator. It had no value to that moderator, it seems. Right now, I have a very lucky and pleasant life that allows me to engage in a lot of things that interest me. This thread and Spytraders are my favs for the reason that they have groups of participants that are mutually helpful and making money steadily. In the last 6 months I have been really coached by a lot of people to be able to learn about a lot of stuff. Now I can do camtasias; plan and support building web sites; get direction on how to process knowledge, skills and experience found on all kinds of records. They are being made into usable resourses and I was able to work through getting the logic sheets of the mechanical version of SCT into a process that will yield contemporary software for trading SCT by anyone mechanically. It is like having a new opportunity through several mechanisms: video, software, organised compendiums of knowledge, skills and experience and being able to host week long work sessions with those more skilled than I in getting things done properly. We have broken position trading and SCT trading into two parallel sets of 60 containers (six levels of ten sectors) and my first assignment is to make up three Q's for each with four possible answers. The right answer takes you to the place you seek and the wrong answers take you to places to gain complimentary info to be able to get the right answer when you return to the location. 60x2x4x3 cells that serve as basic linking devices. It deals with getting people to be helped automaticcally if they have some garbage in their belief system. We also are building a section called "oil change". A one digit sort (0-9) number of common trading strategies (brands) will have their sku's listed so they will be able to cross over to the related component in our system (the hershey universe brand). A sku is a conceptual component of a given system. People like to refine what they have and just adapt a piece or two to what is working for them. Lets say you have ten secret components. You can go to the names of each of these and click and then see how we use your secret component in our applications (or even see how to dump it and adapt a new better thing in it's place. It also gives us a chance to come up with a cross over glossary based on ours and nine other systems. We promulgate 8 refinement pathways each of which doubles the equity curve of the trader. They all are build into the 60 containers for each trading system. The mechanical software version of each will be transparent so people can get the coding directly for piecing it into their systems. When you do your tests of significance on the groups of interest that the 120 posts fall into, you will see that I am probably just writing responses to queries on topics here that will be archived on the web sites we are building. So you see I am having a ball and I post whereever I chose to generate what my advisers and bosses call "needed content". The Tucson group has a terrific range of participants and they are really enjoying the camtasia approach that allows them to replay meetings to their hearts content and also have a transcribed illustrated version of the camtasia. Meeting every two weeks keeps our support staff busy too. Most participants are mechanizing their routines for convenience after having had the manual intial experience. It is similar to what has happened here in this thread. You see the various aspects of making money using now automated parts of SCT like the relationship of the YM and ES. And the relationship of the DOM to the stretch/squeese. Here we made camtasia of each of the elements of SCT with programmers to start. Then for a day I followed up with a comprehensive review of the rest of the logic required to move up to an expert automated mechanical level. You read the posts elsewhere on sentiment and pace. What they were looking at here were flow charts on the ways inputs to logic functions are set up to supply the logic that yields six levels of sentiment and 5 levels of pace continually under real market conditions. This stuff was a precursor for genrating the trading variable values at precise times in market flow. The way it works out is that here in this thread, the team getting everything ready for pubic use will probably blend what they want into the conversations here. Others who are participating through our local connections will use those connections. It is often said by guys like you that you do not understand much. That will continue. You will have a much richer and broader an deeper basis for not understanding in the future. More and more people are coming to the understanding that working in the vinyards is a pretty good way to get the have some fine wine. What you make instead is fine whine that winds up in the chit chat bins. I liked working through learning that market sentiment and its change during the day is a causal factor for market price change. I wound up defining six critical levels that were derived from five other functions each also definable by multiple levels of significance. It is extremely enjoyable to lay out this kind of stuff (2 pages of 33 in this case) before a programmer. A person seeing a level defined to three significant figures to achieve a band pass (volatility in this case (see Conners-Hayward)) has a response like "with this anything is possible". The other 31 pages got a similar response. Its like in M & A where 20 +5 is 70 in 18 months. Doing the logic down to the tick level is just an exercise to get to know how thoings work and why they work; just collateral. We ran about what turned out to be 20 bars ahead the prior day while recording camtasias on the major elements so there was a comfortable feeling in the air as we reviewed what my orientation means in terms of software coding. I have the logic down to a "nano" level; coding it is like having an assignment you only get once in a life time. It is exactly parallel to my IBM experiences; I did logic to solve problems that I found that were not apparent to others. Same thing at Western Electric; same with organic chemistry; my viewpoint apparently is "different". We were slaloming along and using market trades that sacrificed only the spreads (1 tick) on the turns (ES). Biggest slug was 14 points. Check out how MAK's tick chart works with DOM (2 pairs) as another example. So for you, you get the have "the experience". It will play out for you over the next few months, maybe, if you "have it"; then "poof". A side effect of all of this will be that people get to find out why backtesting doesn't work. The proofs are hilarious in the opinion of those working working and meeting here last week. This post will also let you reset your counter for this thread.
For exits, I look for a slow down in momentum(pair timeframes) which is equivelant to the FTT. Then tack into the first leg of a possible reversal and really pay close attention to sct rules and volume characteristics. I have not traded ES in a while. just my 2 cents
For the moment, I am shifting gears to facilitate the Tucson shunt. My spare time during the day has been entirely consumed by my corporate vein unfortunately/fortunately depending on one's perspective. I attempted to get the A/D stuff up last weekend. I've got all the participants labeled and descriptions filled in. However, posting is the easy part. Idiot proofing is the difficult part and I always feel obligated to fill in gaps. Oddly enough, this is where the material gets reinforced connection-wise. Moving into the Tucson effort should really accelerate the filling in of gaps as far as bases are concerned. It should be a very thrilling endeavor. I know there are some hardcore worker bees and I definitely intend to pull as much weight as I can muster. While on the topic of sequences and indicators, what I often find to be the most calming is the sizing of the bars and smoothing of the indicators by scaling the chart across all fractals as seen in the early pages of this thread. Be assured that a solid week or two of doing/annotating channels without fail is a religious experience. As an idiot proofing, I personally found that the annotating of channels as a drill works exceedingly well when you are properly scaled chart-wise. Once the chart is scaled, annotating channels will come easier and look natural whilst the indicators and volume will be very smooth (ie. not jagged/jumpy looking). As time passes, you will notice that regardless of the fractal, the channels will have a characteristic volatility. This is the killer that allows you to zone the place where your point 2 and 3 will occur as soon as you have your point 1. There are a myriad of things that you simply become aware of and establish as truths. What I also found of great value was AMT4SWA take on indicators. He uses them as gauges which you have to gain trust in. Once you trust their readings, you gain confidence in accepting their sequences and then developing a reliability in holding through the hold sequences and acting during the take action sequences (ie. XOs). If your a strict P/V/Channel person your triggers are your gaussians. For me, these took the longest to understand and get calibrated too. From this perspective, the intrabar stuff is just a medium tune in when you find yourself at the XO of the indicators. Kind Regards, MAK PS. For the PM'ers, bare with me on the A/D stuff. I am going through yet another rendering. The tool which was used in the earlier screen capture is very CPU intensive whereas the snapshot is not but will look very noisy to someone who is not calibrated.
I know none of the A team can see me, so this is for the B team: I trust that you are pleased that I got Jack back. What a monumental post! And undertaking! So many people working together ("Heigh ho! Heigh ho! It's off to work we go!"). I eagerly await the release of a cookbook approach to SCT. Hard rules. No ambiguities. Binary logic. More liquidity.
I see you hypo. Too bad you cant kick that quant background and try something simple. Curious if anybody is trading these rockets. Two today. One wash and that last one was pretty nice. There were three yesterday. Two the day before. I keep waiting for someone start nailing them but the silence is deafening.
------------------------------------------------------------------------ Curious if anybody is trading these rockets. Two today. One wash and that last one was pretty nice. There were three yesterday. Two the day before. I keep waiting for someone start nailing them but the silence is deafening. _________________________________________________ Easy, I've been studying rockets recently. I came across AMT4SWA's thread on MACD, using his settings I have set up a template. His charts have been removed, I wish I had been around when he was posting. I also dug up anything written by Jack on "rockets and Icebergs." Now I'm in the process of drawing channels and more channels. Today's down move towards the end was cool.