Thank you very much! I´ve read your reply a couple of times and it seems very interesting. I´m gonna check out the gigantic 500-post-thread about this subject as soon as possible so I don´t have to ask a hundred stupid questions. Just short about two things - synch? never heard the term, vad does it mean? The four different channels, have you written something somewere that explains how to draw them? I´m not sure what is refered to when saying traverse, intermediate trend etc. What seems to be most difficult is to draw the channel in the shortest time perspective. How can you draw a channel predicting where price is moving? Seems difficult to me to draw it in advance... thanks again, Stalker
I can help a little. Synch is the ten or fifteen minutes after the market opens that it takes for the cash and futures market to come into alignment. Traverses are the diagonals inside the channels. Re: channels you might check out the Do Trendlines Work thread. Lots of great info there.
Thanks easy, I´m following the thread right now. I´m amazed though how much time people here on ET can spend writing posts to turn outher people down or saying that their strategies doesn´t work. Page after page after page... Most people here defenitely know more about trading than I do, but having been in theraphy and being used to look myself in the mirror and be honest to myself I can see that a lot of people really struggle with personal issues. Why do you try to turn someone down because he believes in a different strategy than u, a person u don´t even know? Somehow they remind me of a dog I take care of from time to time. When he´s in a angry mood he takes his bone, jumps up in my lap, drops the bone and gets pissed of cause he thinks I´m trying to steal it.... /Stalker
Super post for raising the essential and salient factors related to making money. We have us and we have the market. To lessen the space between the market and us there are things we can do. I brought up the extent to which it is wise to go to eliminate most all of the unknowns. As dull as it sounds, after that there is nothing left to do but make money. Two topics. Eliminating unknowns. Making money. Not knowing synch is common. Most people get faked out at the beginning of the day and have a first loss because of it. You watch the spread on DJ cash and YM to see it come to the neutral value of the stretch and squeese of the prior day. It is part of setting up your logging and records as the day begins. before open you do a preflight check to get all boundaries and the "season" of the market straight. These few next weeks everything changes to handle the last half of the money making for the year. Labor Day in the US is the line in the sand for the halves. Bar three usually ends synch and the BO of bar four is a good arbitray entry for makng first hold leading to first profits. You carry over the lines of the prior day before open and they are all sitting there in the blank space on the right of your screen. All losing traders do not have a blank space on the right of their screen. To find out if you are a loser look on the right side of your screen. If there are bars rubbing on the right side, you are a loser by definition. This will cause a few people to get off their tails and move the active bar to the near middle of their screen. Now we see the axis of symmetry of the past and future. It is the NOW bar. The now bar changes 81 times a day as the future moves to the left past it to become the past. You say: Seems difficult to me to draw it in advance... There is a space there. there is now room to draw it. Now is when you draw it and not in advance of NOW; that is difficult. NOW or even at the first opportunity is when you draw it and E X t e n d IIIIIIT!!! ....... to the right side of the screen. Notice you may have to adjust the vertical scale or move the price pattern up or down to get to the right side of the screen. We are working through some major changes here. Seeing the future coming into view is a first for a lot of ET people who are doing more than just reading this. It is worth stating that most people are in fear of the market. Someone recently said he sometimes lets his guard down and then he learns how dangerous the market is. It is his adversary from what he says. Can you imagine all those traders fighting the market and their bar charts are all jambed up against the right side of the screen and they think the future is outside and to the right of their CRT. Its out side the box and cannot be seen. Jeeees.....just move the chart to the left and the future is right there to see and annotate NOWWWWWWW!!!!! Why not just let the future come to you after you hve been looking at your annotations that go into the future. Look ahead........... at what you annotated!!!!! Mostly everone here knows I program people. You can see how I am programming you. I need you to become concioius of what you need in an orderly way. Some do some don't. You can become concious others are too shot down to resume gaining conciousness.. I program and it does work or it doesn't. That is continuing.... So now we have made a place to work and it is a killer money maker. What seems to be most difficult is to draw the channel in the shortest time perspective. Ahhhhhhh. Well then, lets do it in the shortest time possible. You will find that you are an amazing person...... You absolutely in one word state what is required to make money. PERSPECTIVE.... First we made a place for it and now we are filling it up to be able to putt like crazy.... Sometimes by invitation I got to play the Rider Cup courses a head of the rider cup tournaments. There are no excuses for missing a putt on a prepared course. My son began to play St Andrews in the 5th form. Print this and paste it on a three by five card. When the card wears out you will have it down: The shortest time frame channels are drawn using consecutive bars. Three points determine a channel. The first and last form the trendline (right side) and the other point is where you draw the line parallel to the trend line. This is the essence of making money. A point needs to be made. There is one religious expereince required for this to work. You have to believe for a while that a parallel line as opposed to all other choices is the right choice. It is the right choice because in one fell swoop( a bird dynamic move of excellence) it merges market volatility with short trem human behavior. Using the 3x5 card statement it is almost impostible to not extend lines past the end of the second bar. Go out about ten bars and see if the stress level you feel can be accomodated. Do it in a room alone if you find the stress overpowering. finally try to get the line to go to the right side of your display or stop at the first other line that it would have tried to cross. Because I am working from the last thing you asked (as usual) to the first, you may not see other lines that you feel are easier to draw that the difficult shortest lines are. No matter, we can erase in time for Monday. more.....
The four different channels, have you written something somewere that explains how to draw them? I´m not sure what is refered to when saying traverse, intermediate trend etc. What seems to be most difficult is to draw the channel in the ...... Okay. Time is an exponential sort of but it is easy to deal with nonlinerally by turning to using a constant multiple. This makes a for a good reconcilliation with financial divisions of time as well. All of this is where fractals come from and they, when properly chosen, work as fractals are intended to work. The showflake is a fractal built sloid water formation. They work best on the black velevet on the front porch in winter, except in Arizona where precipitation and cold are not found during the year. We measure rain to the nearest 0.01 inches and now we are ahead by 1.92 inches at the cardinal measuring place. Almost all traders chose their own operating points and never get a chance to make any money. There is another parting of the crowd into two parts also. Somework with boundaries of the price and others work with the middle line of the price. What a major brain fart this turns out to be. you have chosen to make money within the possible boundaries instead of watching price move from one side to the other of the shortest path for price to travel. Tt is ridiculous to entertain alternatives but how could anyone chose to not trade how prices ricochettes to extremes compared to how price flows in an open sewer. I use seven fractals that are separated by a common mulitple. To trade, I pick the one that makes the most money velocity within my capability to be totally aware of all that is going on in the market. So all of the channels of the pertinent channels are drawn as soon as possible and forwarded into the future by extending the parallel lines to the right. Line segments were only what was invented at first. Now there are rays available. Using rays for you will help relieve your present stress in going into the future. Quarterly is the slow fractal to beging with and work inside of that channel to find other channels. You will find a lot of history showing. A full quarter is all you can see on indexes, however. they roll over it turns out. So use the present quarter as shown with weekly bars and draw in with rays the current intermediate term trend of the quarter. Next drawn in the traverses of that channel by drawing in the historical traverses so far this quarter. As you make the bar duration go to daily (a five multiple) you get to see another layer of traverses in what you already drew in and extended. So for trading we use the 5 min and then see that a 30 min chart is a multiple(about 5) of the 5 min chart. You can use the 15 min instead and do the hourly with it. By the time you change the chart bar length in all of these ways you have about four levels of channels annotated and showing into the future. I do different colors and line widths. These channel envelopes need one continuing adjustment for volatility considerations. Once you set the trendline with points 1 and 3, it is set. Period. Fini. Cast in stone. As volume picks up in the beginning of any of these channels, the left channel line is segmented in such a way to widen the channel away and parallel to the trend line. You never draw another segmentt to narrow the achieved channel width. Now you can see into thefuture and have the possible price range bounded by all the contraints of the various fractals that represent the overlain economic considerations of the cultural economic and financial mileu that prevails in the sphere of influence of the market. this is a geometry scoping and bounding where the distant past is superceded and over written automatically. You have a constant view of the golf green associted with the hole you are playing and you simply "hold" (apply the volume energy on the green) until the ball goes in the hole (reverse and pick it up for the next hole). you will find that the pin is always set on the green at the boundary (line) that the ball comes to first. This should make viewing the future on your screen one hell of a lot easier. Obviously you have figured out by now, most other traders are playing in the fog or with the blindfolds they create by having the NOW bar jambed up against the right side of the screen for some dumb reasons. There is a alot of chit chat on trendlines and channels. The commentary on how they do not work is made largely by people too dumb, I mean very dumb wh do not draw the lines just as they begin, nor do they have anyspace whatsoever on their screens to project them into the space of the future. For years and years these people could not think about anything on their screens. They are soo out of it that they are absolutely convinced that every commenting on trends, trendlines and channels can only draw them in after the fact as they stupidly sit watching their dumb improperly set up screens. Think about it. Look how dumb the software people are. Look how dumb the platform people are. Have you ever turned on ascreen or chart and not had the chart jambed against the right side of the screen. Here is my perspective. Anyone who posted a screen shot in ET where the last price bar is right up against the right side and there are no channel or trendlines projected into the future is full of shit regarding trading to make money. Look in a few books that have gone through the financial editors at MH or Oxford of anywhere. You can see what an eye opener it is to always have the screen showing the future and your personal annotations on it. Here is the punch line of all punch lines. ALL CHANNEL LINES THAT ARE DRAWN IN ASAP TO FORM A TRADING TREND WILL HAVE THOSE LIMITING LINES HIT BY PRICE SEVERAL TIMES IN ANY TREND BEFORE THAT TREND IS COMPLETED. There was a guy here who chatted about supply and demand. He drew in trendlines late in trends and would never draw a line opposite the right side where the trendline is. He would never draw a line to define the channel at hand. Un f**king believable!!!! All trading profits are taken on the left channel line. All trend over lap and points 1, 2, and 3 of the new channel are INSIDE the prior channel. What you are doing here is, as a human being, cogently summoning up the sequence of questions that have to be answered to step by step go through the process of learning how to take out of the market every drop of profits it offers. The 500 pager was a slow difficult B people dominated thread. The greatest part of it was observing the mutual frustration that it engendered. You can see I never could get to a place where it was possible to make strides. Now I am less focused on fast tracking to expertise. things like monitoring poorly are killers. The time people spend doing dumb stuuf and reinforcing it is a very very significant difficulty to over come. Preventing oneslf from dwelling in the myth of the week is very damaging forever. If you want to see a sterling screw up in reasoning look at the cycles thread. Person after person posts that they can't think and are being dumb. Today, the lesson for everyone is: Move the trading bar into the middle of your screen so you can SEE and annotate the future.
I just thought about another aspect of the future. That we are not going to do. Here is how to set up a screeen if you are a predictor: Lets pretend we are predictors.. Move the trading bar to the left side of the screen so it is the only bar showing. Waht is showing also are annotations into the future, maybe. Most predictor screens are.....um ...blank. Draw in a value line for a prediction you are making. Draw in the vertical time bracket for when it will happen soonest or latest. Now place the trade and move the trading bar to the right only as far as you have to to see what you based your prediction on. Watch until the goose is cooked. Plan B The way out of uneceessary prediting: 1. On the trading fractal, show only one bar. 2. Bracket it with two orders one above and one below. 3. Begin to annotate when two bars are showing. 4. See the entry when the market takes you in. 5. Continue to annotate as long as the price and volatility improve. (left channel line segments widen the channel) 6. Reverse when the price leaves the left channel line. 7. Repeat 3 go then to 5. Begin to annotate the new channel ASAP. Note: This is a way to begin to learn about price movement. Next we can bring volume into the picutre and we can add leading indicators of all of this too. Easy points out that some pragmatic aspects of leading indicators (the squeese stretch stuff) can be fast tracked for learning with examples. Pro rata volume on the 5 minute is another heart felt thing to do.
I will try this. i think i´m with you most of the time now but when it comes to the practical drawing of the channels i don´t really follow you, maybe it´s my limtited understanding of english, i dont know... just very contrete - when a new trend is coming up, how many bars do you have to wait to draw the line at the right? 3? did i understand you correctly that you attach the right line to the bottom of bar one and three and the top one to bar 2? If you got some pictures of this to post it would be helpfull. Anyway, I think I need at least a week just to try out the basics of this in realtime. I´m gonna start writing on the 15-minute and 5-minute chart. Thanks, and I get back to you when i feel i understand the basics... /Stalker
Of course, i understand it´s it´s not an exact science, just wondering about the basic principal...
Just one last question for today - in a market that is not trending very much, would you suggest to shift timeframe and use channels on a 2-minute chart instead of the 5-minute? Seems like you get in too late on the 5-minute if its a chopping-day when the price is moving in a tight range like it´s been doing lately...
I hope you post your charts and Grob109 comments. It seems to me that Grob109 posts market truths more than anything else. He knows the market truths from experience but I think he does not state or it is not possible to state the step by step process to which one comes to the conclusion of the market truths. This may be because their are a myriad of factors that each have an effect on the NOW. Each of which has an influence. Volume, channels, cycles, multiple time frames, all influence the NOW. All have to be monitored and all fit together. Best of luck with gaining experience and your journey. If you continue to gain expereince and learn from losses, i think anyone can get to a decent level of making money. Godspeed.