Nobody watches ES front month option chain? The market maker's bid and ask spread is quite accurate in predicting big movement.
All of the market's groups tend to turn at the same time (though not the same magnitude). Therefore, I think one needs to track several of the major indices... Dow, SP, Tech, SOX, Naz, NDX, etc. Whichever index reaches support/resistance first... that's where the money usually reverses. Sometimes, however, all seem to breaking a S/R, and the LAST one to test its equivalent is where the market turns. I have for years referred to this phenomenon as the rule of "First and Last"... but it's usually the First that turns 'em.
Heres page 2. i have never seen such a messy day for having to make market corrections to stay on the right side of the merket. I am unable to watch more than the ES at any given time except for looking a a quote sheet of major indexes and cash .
Fast, I use 2 trade the NQ and the ES thru a system on a daily basis ........ I wud avg about 3 trades a day per product...both very nice both trade big volume. This due 2 the fact that they 5/1 mini 2 full size and there is huge arb done all day in these...Nice products but u have 2 b prepared 2 let ur winners run b/c u may get chopped up on a few trades and need that 1 thta runs all day 2 make up for and put some coin in ur pocket.
[/b] Hi J Daniel, First thing I want to tell you that I'm just expressing my ideas and points of view therefore they can be useful or worthless , the benefit is up to you. I can not say that indicators or oscillators are useless , because a lot of people are using them to help their business with positive results . What I can tell you - and this is my personal opinion - is that oscillators and indicators are very subjective. I reach that conclusion when I realized that they're "after the fact prints" and you can adjust their parameters to see what do you want to see. We're fooled for the chart prints. We truly believe that we can play those price swings if we follow some secret, intrinsic oscillator combination or indicator value. There are dozens and dozens of indicators out there and everyday somebody is creating a new one with the same intention : trying to predict price action or trend direction. Well that will work perfectly in a mechanical market, but financial markets aren't mechanical. I've learned that price charts are printings of human feelings .They are pictures of the past although they're useful if you interpret them as paterns of human behavior. There's not a precise way to predict human feelings in a market. I've to tell you that I've spent many nights, day in day out , trying to understand the magic behind all those technical indicators and oscillators and their powers of prediction of the market movements .While I was doing so there was - always - a little voice inside my head telling me " This is not the way " . So I started to asking myself : If all the indicators and/or oscillators are price or volume derivates in some way , why shouldn't I start from the root studying and observing Price and Volume action ? So I did , leaving oscillators and indicators behind and allowing myself all the time I spare to focus my attention just in to the price and volume action. [/QUOTE] How long did it take you to get to this place in your trading and more importantly, do you have any advise for speeding up that process since you now have the ability to look in the rearview mirror of your own experience? Should I view indicators like training wheels that I will grow out of, or am I learning the wrong way by using them now at all? [/QUOTE] I've been around the trading business for almost 4 years, even I should disclose that I'm a rookie in the futures arena. I can not tell anyone how long it would take to reach such or such level because that's a very individual characteristic. Neither I can tell you that if you read a book or a forum in the internet you gonna be ready to fly an aircraft . What I can tell you is that all is a matter of wiliness ,observation, study and dedication. In two words , hard work. I'm still in the process and I'll for a long time to come. You know , I've been flying airplanes for 19 years now , and everyday I learn something. So we can never stop or lack our dedication or wiliness to learn more everyday and be a little better in what we're doing . I use 5 min time frame as my main frame and 1min chart for entries and exits. I focus in a big manner into the tape , watching volume very closely with the price changes. Ask and Bid sizes are important if you're able to interpret them correctly, otherwise they're useless. The pros play games and they know how to play them well.Its their business right ? No discussions. So watching closely you'll see some of their tricks helping yourself to be in the right side. (i.e. they can increase the size of the offer with limit orders to make you think bearish, so when the price ticks down they pull the contracts from the ask and buy at the market ) Regarding exhaustion bars is a matter of observation as well. If you know the instrument you're trading you'll have some price level structure in your mind, the swings, the lines of pressure ( support and resistance ) the average ranges,etc. So watching the volume action closely you'll find how the action bull or bear is running out of fuel reaching some levels. The idea is try to catch a good entry around those spots. That can take some time ( and money).Trial an error is a choice to improve your entries. I'm keeping myself trying and studying. Allow me to tell you, that the understanding of these ideas don't necesary gonna turn you in a sucessful trader.They can help you to improve or they can confuse you. As I said before is a matter of individual characteristics . Remember that there's not such a thing as certainty , you won't step in a railroad and stand there just because you think the train will stop there .You must have some logical meanings behind your decision, otherwise too much iron won't be healthy for your bones ( LOL) . Good Luck
Thanks Hawker. Your input is welcomed this Sunday morning in rainy Seattle. More to think about, more to study. jd
In the case of an up move, do you mean that you enter by putting a sell stop under the bar that seems to be the exhauseion bar?