If you can find an scalable edge and execute it flawlessly, then everything is possible. The truth is that most "edges" that most traders think they have aren't really edges (they are fictions when evaluated rigorously), or they cease to be after a while, or aren't scalable enough. Stuff that works, in certain conditions, with 1-10 contracts, may or may not work with 100-200 contracts, and fail miserably at 1,000 contracts.
emg, you're answered my question perfectly. If you are part of the 10% you can offer honest guidance to those entering into this complicated world of self trading. That guidance is to very very very careful. Learn to have patience and to not blindly trust anyone. Those that tell you that you can earn millions quickly can no more be trusted than those telling you everyone fails. Those are part of the 90% that are usually the ones that have lost confidence, lost patience and lost a ton of money following every "next best thing" that came down the road. Start with the basics and test test test and more testing. Do not believe anything you can't test and verify on your own. This is a very long and drawn out process but it it the only thing that will work in the long run and that is if you have the patience to see the process through to a successful end. Never start trading real money until you have the confidence to know you "WILL" win. I took me 5 years to find my niche and another 3 years after that to prove to myself it worked under any given situation. I am going on ten years past that point now. Now I could care less whether anyone believes I can trade or not. I believe it, my banker believes it, my wife and kids believe it, my bill collectors believe it and that is all that matters. When people ask me to prove it I tell them to "pound sand". I don't offer trading advice. I had to search blindly for a solution to successful trading and the only way you will find it is to do the same. Today I am 5 winners/3 losers and up $.90 a contract in big Crude Oil. It's a good day and I'm done. I have good days, I have bad days but my months are always positive. Good luck, have patience, listen to yourself and have fun Robert.
Develop a system that is radically different than what you learn in read books and accept the fact that the markets are largely random (not 100%). There are tools that you can use to analyze randomness.
best advice to make profit. Encourage more people to trade and hope they fall into the 90% fail group
One of my favorite quotes from emg: "They just lose!!!" Emg may sound negative and like a killjoy, but you would be wise to listen to him. From my experience, he speaks the truth. There`s a big difference between trading for a living and trading as a hobby. Trading for a living on your own account as a retail trader is infinitely more challenging than anyone just entering this likes to believe, including myself when I just started. It`s been said that learning to trade is no different from learning any other profession, like a lawyer, doctor, etc, in terms of effort and hours needed. I believe it is true. What if you put down 5 years of effort, lose a lot of money and time and find that you still are not earning money? Do you have a back-up plan? There are no guarantees in trading. My advice to anyone starting out would be to get yourself a solid education or maintain a dayjob that you like. Study the markets as a hobby, make a plan, start trading it part-time. If you start earning money, then you could consider starting on your own. To answer your questions: 1. Yes, it is possible. 2. This has been debated over and over. Some say you should be happy with 20%, others have more outrageous claims. My opinion is that if you`re consistent and compound your profits and add contracts as your account increases, you should be able to achieve VERY handsome returns. 3. I`m sure there are people who`ve earned more than that, but don`t get too excited Best regards, LF
manually, I doubt it. look at the range today and monday; it's dead boring for a human to trade es. But you can run profitable emini automated trades as part of a bigger career.
It is definately possible to trade eminis intraday, but as several people have said it is very difficult. You need a winning edge and the discipline to execute it. You also need to put in alot of hard work and be willing to go through some emotional pain on the road to success. That's just the way it is.
It started as a hobby and developed into so much more. It took me an insane amount of time to learn to day trade cause I was stubborn and lazy. The smarter you think you are, the longer it will take, markets don't care if you are smart or dumber than a bag of rocks, if you don't backtest over several years of data and forward test over several months of data, it will be tough to have confidence within you to succeed. So for starters, you have to learn how to code, you have to buy data, and you have to start testing ideas. Each Index has a different personality, ES is mainly congestive and by far the toughest to learn, it is mainly biggest hedging instrument, might have 2 good trends in a day. But it is an incredible market to trade if you are highly experienced, great volume, reoccurring patterns for counter-trend. Dow and Russell tend to trend easier, but expect slippage, volume much lower. And Nasdaq is a more forgiving market, you can generally cover a mistake if quick enough. But day trading is not simple to learn, those who generally can't trade-teach, why would anyone wish to teach you for a crummy $5,000 when experienced traders profit that much and more most days. Occasionally good traders will mentor for free, but find one willing to spend at least a year with you, and you can expect you will hear from time to time your mentor pissed off, teaching others real time, explaining concept to young traders, I have often missed out on great trades. But there will be other trades. Too many think reading a couple books, do a couple weeks of backtesting manually will be ok, open and account, and 50% is lost in a week. Except for Price, everything else is an indicator, Price Action, moving averages, oscillators, volume, trendlines. Some will say you need an "edge," not much better than a well backtested method over several years of data that fits your personality. Only need 1-2 entry methods, then concentrate on at least 30 money management rules. And you can expect to "tweak" your method as time goes by, you gain experience or changes in volatility or lack of. But one of the biggest problems of programming ideas, is becoming a lost art of understanding the market and why price does what it does. Those who never "penciled" into chartbooks can't see the charts as one who first learned how to trade manually. Before home PC's came out, I had graph paper, and learned charting by doing. I think far more traders would do better if they could explain why price is doing what it is doing. Not talking about Price is going up cause one moving average crossed another or cause price broke above some trendline cause this is what is found in books, everyone reads them and 99% lose. There are so so so many nuances to learn about day trading, if I was a newbie, I would wish someone would talk me out of it. Much Better reward to risk is achieved using weekly bars. Going back to your question: 1) Yes, expect years at learning first. 2) Don't try to put so much pressure on you in terms of percentages. It is easier to go from $5k to 50k, than 100k to 1M, gets much tougher to trade size, and in some markets, slippage can be brutal when doing size. 3) Absolutely, but don't expect it for several years. End of April will be 25 years of day trading for me and I am retiring from it. Just plain tired of it, want to concentrate much more on where the sustained profits are and much less time is needed, long term and spreads. Wish you all the best.