Question about my system....

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by dafishman, Nov 12, 2005.

  1. I have developed a system and have been paper trading it and doing a little real money trading...95% of it has been paper...I have kept track of the records and all calls since 10-3-05 until 11/11/05...

    The results are below in the attachment and I have not factored in commissions and slippage. There are 3 methods I use, 1 is most volatile, more calls, more riskier, more rewarding...#2 a little less, #3 even less...#3 is my choice simply because of the very little drawdown. I think with the big drawdowns I get on the method #1, I would get scared to follow it and not make every call and could lose even more...#3, suits me fine...I THINK! #2 is not bad!...ANyways tell me what you think and why.

    By the way, the stock is BTU as you can see the file name....
    • btu.xls
      File size:
      16 KB
  2. Splat


    Your results look fantastic. However IMO the method you want to trade depends on your risk tolerance. In this business if u have an edge, the risk you take is proportional to your reward. The question is - do you have the balls to take the large drawdown? If you dont and want to trade using the large drawdown method, I would advise that you trade small and then increase in size as you gain confidence.
  3. doublea


    If I have to choose I would definitely choose #3.

    Here is the total Profits and # of calls for each method.

    Total ------Total
    Profits-----Calls ------- Profit Per Trade
    25.49----- 155------- 0.164451613--------- #1
    17.99----- 103------- 0.174660194--------- #2
    13--------- 44-------- 0.295454545--------- #3

    Clearly #3 is better if you look at the net reward per trade. Once you add commissions and slippage #1 and #2 could very well be not profitable at all.
  4. Thanks fellas....I dont think I have the balls to risk that big of a drawdown even though the results are still good...I have been very close to getting out of this business and I have even messaged some respected people on this board asking for help...

    I have dedicated alot to this in a very short time...about 4 months...I have studied just about everything and spent in upwards of 80 hours or more a week on developing things, indicators, software packages, etc, etc...I surely hope that I can continue these same numbers and on Monday I will go into realtime, 100% money. I will take it small to start, 200-400 shares and see how things go and I will update this thread with the numbers accordingly...I will use the method #3, I dont get calls every day but when I do, there damn good...Thanks again and any other input is appreciated...BTW this system works on any stock and I can backtest your stock with my method, if your curious of a stock using my methods, post it and I will test it out for you...Thanks again
  5. also, when I backtest some other stocks, it seems that more volatility performs better yet too much volatility as in GOOG or CME does not do well....I like to stick to stocks I always look at and watch and try and learn them...My "4" are, BTU, BR, SWN, and SUN...some others I like are TXU and VLO....on the other hand, stocks liks PD and TS perform very very well, but there a little expensive for me as I like to stay under 100....ebay does well also for me...