Is this just me, or does it seem in a Bull market especially..The majority of traders painstakingly search for reasons why this market must go lower!..In spite of the obvious reality...The obvious reality being a 3 year rally. Which of course has given retracements, but only to go higher, and this has gone on for three years and counting.... Meanwhile, The majority wants to predict a "Top" or find the reasons why now! Is the time to "SELL".."The market is Topping" ....."Were going Lower" ..Is this just because of the liquidation process and the fact that most gains are unrealized until finanicals are "SOLD" and profits are realized.....Or, is there a psychology dynamic at play which sabotages the majority of traders from the reality..?
its human nature.its called climbing a wall of worry. in 2000 the emotions were reversed. many were looking for reasons for it to go up. only when most were convinced it wouldnt go up did it bottom. when most are convinced that this market will not go down again you need to be cautious.
=========================== DR; You made some helpful points & some of it also is; many of mainstream media call bottoms/buying in bear markets pretty consistently wrong, and skeptical to the point of stupidity on uptrending bull markets. Plus some ''reviewers'' on William O Neil latest book on Selling Stocks Short, was ''reviewed'' very negatively,[on AMZN, last i looked] ,too many charts was the ignorance they expressed. And William O Neil hit the bullseye again ; many investors/traders want to much money in relation to the little work they do.
The 'trend' mindf**k is a common condition. Markets are perceived as must be going somewhere, uptrending or downtrending, being of course only two dimensional. Speculating all the time on a 'top' in a bull 'trend' is part of an uncertain and unsatisfactory prognosis. Markets (eg YM), being neutral, just go on offering gyrations wherein lies the money, markets offer to players.
It may be a bull market but it's a very weak one comparing to 2003. 2004 was going nowhere until the last month and 2005 had slightly more conviction. The fundamentals are lacking, thats the real problem. I think short squeezes are the biggest forces behind the uptrend.