Quest for the Next Big Tradable Trend

... so it takes other people to through ideas around to make you think?

 

At some point vols will spike. It's just a matter of time. I'm looking to find the best way to get long vol. Buying wings probably is not the best way. I'm looking into VIX futures (VBI) -- anyone here have experience with it?

near-term contract (Jan05) is currently quoted 133.10 at 134.40 (last trade 134.00)

(it's 10 times the VIX)


http://www.cboe.com/products/indexopts/vixfutures_spec.aspx

 

Are you able to short CHN?

 

Yes, you can short CHN. It is shortable, no problems in that front.
FXI is not shortable though and it is trading almost at its NAV(%0.67 premium).
So CHN with a hefty premium-call it irrational exuberance (as of today it may be 42%) may be very rewarding on the short side.

 

I looked at this but .... I hate paying that premium to spot. In this type of scenario I prefer to initiate the position by shorting puts. Alas no options available on the futures contract.

I might reconsider buying a position if we get a sharp spike under 10 on the VIX and the forward premiums come in a bit. Otherwise there are simply too many other opportunities out there.

 

Anybody did the CHN short trade that was mentioned..
It worked out great...

 

Higher demand for wheat and whole grains as consumers no longer want "white flour" cloging thier colons. :eek:

 

I asked 3 brokers, unavailable for short.

 

Yeah the forward premium for the feb05 fut is about 10 points to the index just as the front month is going off the board (I think jan05 goes off next tuesday jan 18th) ..

I get the feeling that a vol spike is just around the corner...Is there another way to get long volatility (w/o buying individual index options)? I'm not big enough to call a bank for a vol swap.

 

Irrational exuberance in CHN almost coming to an end stock went down more than 4pts. Now below 30...29.61..
Short posn worked great still at a high prem....