As the year 2004 is coming to an end (time sure moves fast when you are having fun!), I thought to start a discussion on finding emerging trends in the various markets. I think this is no easy task but thought a collective discussion might benefit us all. I remember, for example, at the end of 1998, crude oil was below $10 (that was the bottom after a bear market in oil) ... Also look at the USD/Euro exchange rate .... wish I was in on that trend from the start... What about the US 30-yr Bonds.. Which country stock markets are just starting to rise (or fall)? I'd like to leave the discussion open to all asset classes, but at the same time would like to discuss how and what financial instruments/vehicles to use. After all, this is a trading site! I'd like to thank all participants in advance.
The USD dollar up, gold will down...mid 2005 to 2006 Higher USA interest rates from inflation worries This news letter covers all major markets very well http://www.adenforecast.com/
On a theoretical basis, this would cause further dollar declines. The most basic currency theory states the change in the exchange rate should be based directly on the ratio of price level changes in two countries. Higher inflation in the US versus EU would result in a stronger euro, not a strong dollar. I think this will be the case. I think the dollar will remain very weak in the comming two years. At the same time, interest rates should rise dramatically. Since the dollar has declined a great deal in the last three months or so, higher inflation may be priced in to some degree; I won't be looking for any long term play there. However, I think we'll see a dramatic long-term bond decline. We currently have negative real interest rates; this will not last for much longer.
Thanks Digs, I'm not a Gold expert but wouldn't Gold normally go up if there are inflation worries? Also just looked at a report from the above site (dated Sept) that Gold will make new highs... I also have read another research report in Gold which says the recent rally is a bear mkt rally and it will go down to new lows before making a bottom...don't know what to think of it.
Potential plays for 2005 Dollar bottoming Yen strengthening vs Euro Oil treading water for a while, then resuming its uptrend towards $100 Bonds selling off, rates rising Real estate topping and going into reverse Soft commodities rallying
thanks for your input. The USD Index ($DXY) has made major bottoms around the 80 level 3 times in the 90's ... seems it will be a major support again...you think it'll break that?...I think even if it breaks, it won't be there for too long before a huge rally in the dollar .. .
Hi Cutten, I remember you from the silver discussions...hope you are doing well. Any view on the preciuos (gold ,silver) ?