I don't remember where I read this, but this sums it up for me perfectly: "In the short run, we will learn something. I the intermediate term, we will learn quite a bit. In the long run, we will learn nothing" - ? The problem is that trading is mostly ruled by 20somethings, and by the time the generation that went through this is too old to impose the lessons on their peers, the knowledge may as well be stored in the Library of Alexandria. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Library_of_Alexandria
Every pricing model in existence makes specific market assumptions, therefore every pricing model in existence is by definition also a predictive model.
Isnt investing basically a physcological bet on what some other idiot thinks an asset is going to be worth a few years down the road?
Nothwithstanding some of the hot air that gets passed around in these here parts, I suspect that the underlying physics and chemistry of gases may not be quite as directly applicable to the markets as some would like to believe. Unlike you, I'm not a man of science, so I can't speak with any authority on the matter. However, I suspect that human behavior is a tad more indeterminate and perhaps better analyzed with far more blunt instruments. But if you have made your fortune in the markets using your knowledge of physics, then who am I to question the emperor's clothing?
these people are really smart. no doom and gloom bo hoo hoo recession there. The surge in quants is more proof nothign hanged economically between June 2007 and now.