QQQQ "W" Bottom or set for a breakdown?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by BT247, Apr 26, 2009.

  1. BT247


    This looks like a bonafide "W" bottom, the only problem, the SPY and Dow haven't confirmed and remain locked in primary downtrends. Here's a look at some charts, you decide.

    Here's a daily scan I use of price to volume relationships. The most negative in any market is price up/volume down. It's not a huge margin on the Q's, but it is dominant. It's actually underperforming the other major averages.
    <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/23623637@N05/3478307234/" title="Picture 17 by BT24_7, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3614/3478307234_22394bce1d.jpg" width="500" height="400" alt="Picture 17" /></a>

    Here's the "W" Bottom. "A, B and D" are all negative divercences, "C" is a positive, but just like I'm seeing in all the other major averages, the recent rally highs have been used as an opportunity to sell into the rally. Draw your own concussions.
    <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/23623637@N05/3477499465/" title="Picture 15 by BT24_7, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3309/3477499465_648526debb.jpg" width="500" height="313" alt="Picture 15" /></a>

    Finally my 3C indicator on a 1-min chart, not really that important in the big picture unless it is being used to time an exact divergent reversal and pont "A" is a negative divergence. Rememer, the pros trade the close. I've een expecting the typical false breakout, here above $34.25. If that hapen and we see good volume and then a reversal back under what will become support, watch out below-typically waterfall type sell offs.

    All in all, this has been a decent trading rally, but not enough to overcome the primary trend, decent though. I feel the worm is about to turn, false breakout or not.
    <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/23623637@N05/3477499655/" title="Picture 16 by BT24_7, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3607/3477499655_b88a6a7511.jpg" width="500" height="313" alt="Picture 16" /></a>
  2. Its a bear;
    but real old, old bear.

    Unless/until oil starts spiking up;
    real old bear:cool:
  3. Interesting, a lot of people on the street are saying that depending on whether or not we can build up some decent momentum we're just going to skid along the side of the current resistance.

    My personal take is that we're headed higher. We'll see.

    BTW, your last chart...I couldn't see what was the indicator at the bottom, was that Money Flow?

  4. BT247


    The indicator at the bottom is BOP balance of power
  5. BT247


    This is what I've been looking for. Check out my analysis and charts updated at www.trade-guild.net

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