Blue, take heed to this comment. It is very true. Much of what you are writing is a very probable scenario. However, until the markets turn no need to painfully fade. Your very good economic foresight should have you cautious not shorting.
True...fading a rally is painful. I believe that the market is holding up because people are reluctant to pay taxes on their gains and they have hardly any losses to realize. If (and this is a big IF) the market makers can bring the market down, it might squeeze enough people to sell their holdings. Come Jan 1st, more selling will be met due to the pent up orders. It could be a fast down market.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=qqqq this thing is breaking down even on good news......sold straight through for an entire hour this morning BEFORE the oil inventories came out......that should tell you something. That is an interesting point about taxes and selling.....but what usually happens is.....they end up having losses for holding on to damn long......all it takes is one nucklehead in a world of nuckleheads to walk into a mall with grenades (and you know it is only a matter of time) and at these levels you will have a selling stampede. too many reasons to fade any futures bump, in fact, I would be fading every ym futures (pre-market) bump up.....when don`t they fill those gaps (i think there may be 1 or 2 still open, but that`s why you use stops for that straegy play!