QQQQ head and shoulders?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Balljet, Nov 17, 2007.

  1. Balljet


    Can anyone look at this and help me out? If you look at the 2 year daily of QQQQ it looks like it might be developing a head and shoulders pattern, or am I confused?

  2. I for one would like to hear takes from "so-called" T.A. experts.

    Is this market indeed setting up for a substantial breakdown - you know once the DJ Industrials and the S&P 500 (followed by the NASDAQ) undercut mid-August lows/support and perhaps Feb-Mar lows?

    After-all, markets trade on about 6-month expectations and the economy is slowing and continuous sub-prime write-down news will unfold - and no Fed cuts are in the pipe (according to their words), since this mess has to play out in the marketplace.

    More than the banking industry seems will be affected, so yeah - the (normal) market hates uncertainty and the frothy/schizoid market will soon start seeing things clearly.

    So yeah, institutions have finally taken down the last of the holdouts with heavy volume take-downs of RIMM, etc. (you've been following the recent malaise).

    Easily can happen - BUT DO CHARTS point to this mid-term scenario of a breakdown (15-20% correction perhaps recession/bear market or 20%+) - which is entirely ok to profit from and the US economy's resilience will be forthcoming - making for a MUCH more healthy market.

    BUT does this 3-9 month scenario play out in the T.A. crystal ball???

    Paysense (seems it should/would)

    I mean 50 and 200 days breaches are daily and adv/dec line is looking down.
  3. heres the spy chart,

    if market makers break the neckline/trendline, the cap used to break it can be covered by the liquidity surge on the long term sell signal that ensues.

    its one of the strats, I would think of, if colluding with other big funds.

    then the covering can take us up to test resistance again at 1500...before rolling over.
  4. Balljet


    I do not see that the pattern on the SPY is the same as on The Q's. The SPY looks more like a possible double top, if that but the Q's were so overextended the head seemed to clearly form. I don't know, but the chart is interesting.. Is the first chart you send me (SPECTRE) a model of probability?

    Thanks Ball
  5. ronblack


    Yes, but that says nothing, These formations could serve as either reversal or continuation patterns.

  6. weld1


    a sharp drop like in aug. won't be bad. if this market keeps a slow steady decline leading into the end of the year i think will be real trouble. then if it breaks real support around spx 1400 look out!!!!
  7. Indexes don't usually obey technicals such as head and shoulders, double tops, moving averages, and other crap . The QQQQ will only surge higher into the end of this year.
  8. Lucrum


    If I'm seeing what I think your seeing at best it's a pattern barley 1/2 complete. In the mean time almost any thing can happen. Me, I tend not to worry to much about a pattern until it's nearing completion.
  9. I think I'll do the same.

    I'm watching the support levels and volume on the major indexes. If these get breached I can add some more bearish plays.


    My Notes:

    Get your OTM (Dec QQQ)puts.
    BTO ES/NQ (first time, go light) with stops.
    Watch to see if new lows are made.
    Add (STO) ES/NQ with momentous drop.
    SPX is indexing at the 1445 level.
    Nasdaq 2600.
    QQQ 48.75.
    DJIA 12,975.

    Holiday week should be range-bound, but as OP says - -since when is the stock market predictable?

    #10     Nov 18, 2007