So, being a novice chartist, I'm curious. Just which chart should I believe when looking to find if the Q has really bottomed? Does theShadow REALLY know or was it a lucky guess? A 5day/hourly MACD says we started an uptrend today. A 10day/hourly MACD says we started an uptrend today. A 1month/daily MACD says not yet. A 2month/daily says almost but not quite yet. A 3month/daily says forget about it for now. A 6month/daily is just plain confusing. I took back a little from the Q today but I want to ride this puppy for all it's worth when I know it has turned upward. The bear in me made me wait for it to turn about noon today and short it for a small afternoon gain.
IMO. the only reason for calling a bottom would be that the market closed almost unchanged (a Doji in Candlestick terminology). Other factors supporting the bottom: 1) QQQ is at the lower end of its Bollinger Band 2) VXN (Nasdaq Volatility index is at a high) 3) Sentiment in general is very bearish. 4) Weekly/Daily charts are oversold There is no sure thing in the markets though ..... Just play the odds.
How do you interpert the VXN? Do you use Bollinger Bands, Some fixed number and/or previous levels? What are you using as a sentiment indicator? (Bearish) How are you determinig that the weekly/daily charts are oversold? Thanks, Mike
If you think the market has any interest in you, your orders, your trading style, your profits, your losses, your hangups, etc., then think again. All the conflict in this and previous posts is internally generated. Asking for advice on a public forum regarding a losing position is evidence that you don't have a method. Taking that advice is proof. Before attempting to "go on at this" I would suggest that you develop or otherwise obtain and implement a proven method, and get to work developing the discipline needed to follow it.
Just what I needed, MORE advise. I believe the advise to exit the loosing Q position was right. I was wrong to have entered without taking the time to view the charting. I was at work, noticed the price and decided to 'take a chance' on a inter day bounce. Won't happen again. I was wrong not to have exited as the loss developed. I exceeded my pain threshold. Won't happen again. And then there was the matter of that margin call!
Today was my worst day in term of realized dollar loss this year. Attached is the P&L for today. I was up nicely then the worst nightmare happened. My router broke down. It took me about 10 minutes to yank the damn connection from the router and straight into the backup computer. Start it all up get RealTick back up etc. My profits were gone. I was trading 70K lots of QQQ. Anyhow, I went into a state of denial and anger and I lost another 22K while on my balcony watching the view as QQQ tanked 35 cents. (huge mistake, I should have gotten out and then regroup). At least I got the heck out and am not holding this position overnight. Since I have posted big winners in the past, I though it is only fair to share with you this day that is going to be completely "forgotten" by dinner tonight. I am not one to hide my losers, so here it is for the world to see. Trade Smart everyone! Tony