QE2 has bubble written all over it!!!!

Discussion in 'Economics' started by S2007S, Nov 3, 2010.

  1. S2007S


    Good article on what could go wrong after QE2 comes into play, as usual its inflation, lower interest rates and just more asset bubbles. Anyone cheering this QE2 is a fool, this will bring great problems to the economy in the next 2 years or so. To feed an economy more trillions and having the banks borrow at literally nothing to buy up assets and create a so called growth effect is not the way this crisis is fixed. All they are trying to do is encourage that spending leads to growth, it may lead to growth, an but in the end all were do is inflating prices to make it look like there is growth in our economy which there isn't. All they are doing is creating an illusion.

    The Fed's Big Gamble: Here's What Could Go Wrong
    Published: Wednesday, 3 Nov 2010 | 7:29 AM ET
    Text Size
    By: AP

    The Federal Reserve is about to take a huge risk in hopes of getting the economy steaming along again. Nobody is sure it will work, and it may actually do damage.

    Federal Reserve
    The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, DC.
    The Fed is expected to announced today that it will buy $500 billion to $1 trillion in government debt, and drive already low long-term interest rates even lower.

    The central bank would buy the debt in chunks of $100 billion a month, probably starting immediately.

    Economists call it "quantitative easing." It gets the name "QE2"—like the ship—because this would be the second round. The Fed spent about $1.7 trillion from 2008 to earlier this year to take bonds off the hands of banks and stabilize them.

    Here's how it's supposed to work this time: The Fed buys Treasury bonds from banks, providing them cash to lend to customers.

    Buying so many bonds also lowers interest rates because demand for Treasurys leads to higher prices and lower yields. Interest rates are linked to yields. Lower rates encourage people to borrow money for a mortgage or another loan.

    At the same time, lower interest rates make relatively safe investments like bonds and cash less appealing, so companies and investors take the cash and buy equipment or other investments, like stocks.

    The S&P 500 takes off and Americans celebrate with a shopping spree. Businesses see a rise in sales and begin hiring again, and a virtuous cycle of more spending and more hiring ensues.

    But many analysts and even supporters of the plan see dangers. It could make the weak dollar even weaker and lead to trade disputes with other countries. It could lead bond traders to believe that higher inflation is on the way, and they could derail the Fed's efforts by pushing rates higher.

    Many investors argue that it may create bubbles as hedge funds and other speculators borrow cheaply and make even bigger bets on stocks, commodities and markets in developing countries like Brazil.

    "It's a desperate act," says Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of the investment firm GMO. Grantham says it's a clear message from the Fed to the rest of the world: "The U.S. doesn't care if the dollar weakens."

    Here is a look at the ways the Fed's strategy could backfire:

    * DOLLAR DROP As word trickled out over recent months that the Fed was planning a new round of bond purchases, the dollar sank. It hit a 15-year low to the Japanese yen Nov. 1. Why? In the simplest terms, a country that cuts interest rates makes its currency less attractive to the worlds' investors. The interest rate is also the investors' yield, the payout they receive. When that yield falls, the world's banks move their money into countries with higher rates. They may exchange U.S. dollars for Australian dollars then invest the money in higher-paying Australian bonds.

    "The Fed aims to push up the prices of stocks, bonds, real estate, and you name it," says Bill O'Donnell, head of U.S. government bond strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland. "Everything is going to go up but the dollar."

    A drop in the dollar can help companies like Ford [F 14.43 --- UNCH (0) ] that sell their products abroad. When the dollar weakens against the euro, for example, one euro buys more dollars than before. Foreign customers notice the price of the Explorer they've been eyeing is lower in their currency, yet Ford still pockets the same number of dollars for every sale.

    The downside is that a weakened dollar pinches people in the U.S. because anything produced in other countries becomes more expensive, like oranges from Spain or toys from China.

    "Look around you," says Thomas Atteberry, a fund manager at First Pacific Advisors. "How many things can you find that were made in the U.S.A?"

    * BLOWING BUBBLES Buying bundles of Treasurys knocks down interest rates, making borrowing cheap. But it also motivates investors to move out of safe investments into riskier ones in search of better returns. The stock market, for instance, rises in value and everyone with some of their savings in stocks feels wealthier. Ideally, it produces what what economists call a "wealth effect": People who feel better off spend more.

    The problem, according to some critics, is that cheap borrowing costs and buoyant markets make a fertile environment for bubbles, which eventually pop. "The effort to help the economy sets up another more dangerous bubble," says Grantham, who warned of Japan's surging real estate and stock markets in the 1980s, soaring Internet stocks in the 1990s and the housing market in the 2000s.

    Stocks in developing countries are a likely candidate for the next bubble. Cash from Europe and the U.S. has plowed into emerging markets, such as Brazil and Chile, since the financial crisis, largely because these countries have less debt and faster economic growth than in the developed world.

    Another concern: Hedge funds borrowing cheap money can magnify their bets, taking a loan at 2 percent to buy a security that's rising 10 percent. They sell the security, pay off the bank and pocket the rest. That's true whenever interest rates remain low. Falling rates allow speculators to borrow larger amounts. In the extreme, losses from hedge funds and other borrowers can put their banks at risk and leave governments to clean up the mess.

    The game only works as long as the investment keeps climbing. When the bubble breaks, the fallout can devastate an economy. "I think bubbles are the main villain in this piece," Grantham says.

    Cheap debt provided the fuel for the housing bubble, allowing home buyers to take out larger loans on the belief that somebody else would buy the house at a higher price. Fed chief Ben Bernanke's answer, Grantham said, is to start the cycle over again by blowing a new bubble. "All they can do is replace one bubble with another one," he said.

    * FALLING FLAT For others in the bond market, the greatest worry isn't that the Fed will flood the economy with dollars and lets inflation run wild. It's that the Fed will prove too timid.

    "Whether QE2 works or not will be decided by the bond market," says Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at Bank of Tokyo. "Without a big number that gets the market's attention, the program they announce could be dead on arrival."

    News reports that the Fed may spend less than the $500 billion bond traders have been betting on has helped push long-term rates higher in the last three weeks. David Ader, head of government bond strategy at CRT Capital, sketches one scenario if the Fed shoots too small. Say the Fed announces a $250 billion plan. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which is used to set lending rates for mortgages and corporate loans, could jump from 2.6 percent to maybe 3.2 percent.

    "If the Fed's efforts fail we suddenly look like Japan," Ader says. "Japan started off wimpishly, then did it again, and again and then they wound up losing a decade."
  2. No one is cheering it but there's nothing you can do.
  3. Shagi


    007 - I was thinking of exactly the same and posted this in a the wrong forum

    Why is there a celebration of this illusion of creating wealth via QE. Somebody is gonna pay someday and usually its Joe the Plumber.

    There is no historical record or statistical evidence of sucess where such similar schemes of printing money and adding zeros to non-productive account. Its all failures where its been tried in both 1st world and 3rd world economies.

    e.g Japan failed, super- inflation in Weimar Germany & recently super hyperinflation in Zimbabwe.

    Surely the US is heading the same way, am I missing something here - as a trading decesion I go with the flow even if its it does not make economic sense though. sheez.
  4. LEAPup


  5. Bob111


    why the FED HAVE to do this anyway? just leave it alone..economy sucks? well..they should look in the mirror first..
  6. Gold and silver tanking...

    The FED is gonna dissapoint.
  7. Not sure, but my opinion....

    1. Fed mandate for "price stability"... that translates into "no DOWNWARD price corrections.... but inflation is OK".

    2. The country is fed up with Odumba's running huge deficits... sooooo, now the Fed is trying to goose the economy with print-money.


    So, why is it STUPIDLY being tried again? Because (1) it delays the inevitable pain... though makes it worse, and (2) it's easy to do.

    :mad: :mad:
  8. QE2? Fiscal resonsibility? Worried about deflation? The Fed is trying to inflate asset prices!?!? What a joke.
    The assets they need to inflate to help economy is housing not the wealth's brokerage accounts.
    Let markets work the way they are suppose to, w/o rediculous gov't intervention. Or get ready for $20 slices of pizza!
  9. Markets will tanks and everyone on CNBC and Bloomberg will say they should have printed more...:D
  10. olias


    Who is celebrating? Even those who support Quantitative Easing admit, at best, it is a necessary evil. Maybe it won't work, but is there any alternative? 'do nothing', perhaps?

    I like the article too. He makes a good case against QE, but what's the alternative?
    #10     Nov 3, 2010