Q4 2013: A Market Inflection Point

blakpacman · Oct 10, 2013

Quote from cmdtytrdr:

'OL MASSA,

'OL MASSA O'DUMBAR,

PLEASE, PLEASE GIVE THAT 'OL BOY DROWNPRUF HEEES D'YIP

HE NEED DAT DIP

HE GON', I SAY HE GON' BUY DAT DIP IF YOU GIV'T TO 'EM. PLEASE MASSA?

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Always remember there's a fine line between being funny and being an asshole.

drownpruf · Oct 10, 2013

Quote from cmdtytrdr:

ok fellas I can't top that. that's my curtain call. bye ET
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You're leaving because you now realize your financial shorts & long puts are going to get raped tomorrow. +7.50 ES marked and +15 tomorrow.

drownpruf · Oct 10, 2013

+21 ES
XLF +1.5%

How are those puts doing?

drownpruf · Oct 10, 2013

Quote from cmdtytrdr:

Hmmph.

When I first posted Sunday I sounded like a madman. Everything I said came true. Only events are happening even much faster than I thought.

I hope some of you used today as an AMAZING opportunity to get short and buy volatility and didn't "buy the dip".

Next steps, as I see them: this move is happening with great force and rapidity. I now predict in the coming days and weeks a massive withdrawl of liquidity from the system. 2008 all over again.

Money is starting to freeze up a little: Fidelity sold all its short term paper today, IB, CME, and TBTF banks are starting to raise margin requirements and are removing their risk and capital from the market.

This will have a reaction. Ironically, just like 2008 I now think the next area of vulnerability will be the financials and to a lesser extent exchanges and insurance companies.

I used today to get short some financial names and bought puts on them. Full disclosure. You might be interested and might profit by pursuing a similar tack as well. Or, maybe I'm a total idiot.

LATER
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You're operating at a loss on the "Sunday" trade and summarily shorted the low yesterday. omfg is all I can add.

drownpruf · Oct 10, 2013

XLF +2.4% on the day. Encore!

Maverick74 · Oct 29, 2013

Quote from cmdtytrdr:

Fellow ET'ers,

I believe we're about to get an early Christmas gift from the market gods and the 1%

Many, indeed most, traders and hedge funds have underperformed the S&P and hovered in the +/- single digit range for returns this year and for many going on several years. Wholly unacceptable. Bernanke and Co have virtually closed the casino and forced us to play $5 table blackjack. Enough.

I believe there is ample evidence that the general populace has reached a historical inflection point recently and this has not been lost on Obama, Bernanke, TBTF Banks, and their bretheren in the 1%.

They are going to give hedge funds, traders, and a small minority of middle class investors with some cash an opportunity to buy stocks at a discount and what better time than now as we approach the holiday season.

Evidence:

Technical: Pull up a 5 year chart on virtually any major index - you will see more than just dandruff about to fall from the H&S.

Fundamental:
1. S&P multiple quite overextended on historical basis.
2. Earnings are going to come in shallow.
3. Consumer confidence is coming off a very high number and has much room to go down which it now will with shutdown, political instability, etc

Political:
1. Obama: "Wall street should be very concerned"
2. Buffett (regarding stocks): âTheyâre probably more or less fairly priced now,â and âWeâre having a hard time finding things to buy.â

Anecdotal:
1. More than 50% of Americans in a recent poll said they hoped the Government would NOT raise the debt ceiling and ALLOW default
2. Twitter will mark the final nail in the coffin of 'tech & social media boom'. That's Wall Street's last big card to play with public and they played their hand too early.
3. The very idea of shorting and not buying the dip sounds ludicrous. This trade 'feels' terrible.

Primary Targets: Short Nasdaq, Short S&P, Short Nikkei, Short Oil, Short Retailers/Consumer Discretionary

Secondary Targets: Buy volatility through puts on your favored shorts - give yourselves at least to the Dec strike. Be careful outright shorting stocks with small % public floats. Use 5 year charts first as your basis and then dig deeper.

Fake danger zone: There will be a rally when Yellen is announced as next Fed chair. Short it.

Game changer: Market consensus is now that there is about a .001% chance of default. I think it's closer to 25%.

Capitulation point/Stop: S&P 1747 or thereabouts. If the S&P doesn't drop to at least 1600 by mid/late December will cover.

Thanks for the laughs this year. It's been fun to both tease you and to be teased; however, the hour's getting late.

I feel free to share this info as all bears are dead and a couple piggybackers won't matter. Hope it helps.

Peace out
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So let's review this wonderful trade. You got short at 1680, you got stopped out at 1747 and you were wrong on just about all fronts. And you said you were looking for backing at a prop firm? The market has gone up just about every single day since your call.

tradingjournals · Oct 29, 2013

I doubt the existence of backers just to back traders even if a trader were to make money.

cmdtytrdr · Oct 29, 2013

Quote from Maverick74:

So let's review this wonderful trade. You got short at 1680, you got stopped out at 1747 and you were wrong on just about all fronts. And you said you were looking for backing at a prop firm? The market has gone up just about every single day since your call.
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I lost a lot of money. Seriously. Not on paper, not internet keyboard BS. Real money. I lost a lot of it. I have a few positions left that will be worthless in a couple months, they pretty much already are. I was totally wrong. I'm going to pay the price for it, and also have not been able to get a job.

Happy?

eurusdzn · Oct 29, 2013

I am happy. Viewing a car wreck makes us all safer drivers .
I dont think for a second that you are a trader or there was real money at stake.
That is not possible because no trader would publicly display as much hubris and ego as you do.
I opine on things i dont realy understand as you also do on ET so you are not alone. But,
I am not a trader.
Someone elsewhere is fading a "no taper" trend in the dollar a day or two pre fed.
Yah sure, on demo maybe.
Seriously, what do you want. Internet pity?

cmdtytrdr · Oct 29, 2013

Quote from eurusdzn:

I am happy. Viewing a car wreck makes us all safer drivers .
I dont think for a second that you are a trader or there was real money at stake.
That is not possible because no trader would publicly display as much hubris and ego as you do.
I opine on things i dont realy understand as you also do on ET so you are not alone. But,
I am not a trader.
Someone elsewhere is fading a "no taper" trend in the dollar a day or two pre fed.
Yah sure, on demo maybe.
Seriously, what do you want. Internet pity?
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shutup fairy. who's talking to you? was my comment addressed at you?