PVH analysis, Trend/Candle/P&F

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by codetroll, Nov 9, 2008.

  1. My background: Still kind of new to tech. trading, I've been doing it off and on for about a year, retail only, and within the past 4-6 months or so I've been hitting the tech. books a lot.

    I'm just going to post up a couple of charts I've been looking at for PVH. Any comments would be appreciated, from a learning standpoint.

    Just a side note: I trade options exclusively right now as my account is small, by design.

    Thesis: Short PVH.
    Short Price: ??? $21ish, maybe $23-24 if we get a pop in the market.
    Exit Price (PROFIT: $18.00ish
    Exit Price (LOSS): $26.00ish
    Profit/Loss: 45-55% +/ 40-50% - (put option) December PUT, strike 22.5

    Trend Chart:

    Trend Chart 2:

    P&F Chart: (Box size 1, reversal 3)

    Candle Chart:


    1.) Price Weakness. I've been seeing a lot of price weakness in the stock, more so than other retails that I've been looking at and it has recently been testing it's short term support in the low 20's, with some breakthroughs recently...my experience is that I've seen weakness like this and it usually goes down to $15ish or lower toward $10-12 almost as a general rule of thumb.

    2.) Downward trend, yet to be violated. Long-term support not really in place unless you count the $18.00ish level on the chart.

    3.) I'm trying to learn more about P&F, seems pretty good to me. Looks like there are lower lowers and lower highs with support levels being broken. Seems like it could head down further with a small term pop possible for an entry.

    4.) Retail industry, which everyone seems to hate right now, so I have protection from a ton of upward momentum.

    1.) Short-term the MACD looks like it recently crossed and turned up and looks to be headed up (possibly).

    2.) The candle stick chart on the last day (Friday's close) looks like a Doji so it should be interesting to see what happens. China bailout and all this positive news might move the market up, which could present a good time to enter a short (or put option) in hopes that it shows continued weakness.

    3.) The money flow looks like it started to dry up on the selling pressure side. If it was stronger still I'd feel better about it, something to watch (still negative, but not as much).

    Sorry if it's a long thing...just ranting about what I see/thinking. Any constructive comments welcome, should I be taking into consideration something else? Calculating something else, different periods for macd or something? Just trying to learn.

  2. Noticed additional intraday price weakness when it broke 19.50. Looks like it might go through down to low $19's today and are on target for $18 something target price.