Putting My System to the Ultimate Test

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Jul 19, 2022.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    HERE IS WHERE IT BEGINS...

    It turns out that what the office landlord meant by 24/7 access was that if someone left their reading glasses sitting on their desk, they would be able to go back and retrieve them after regular business hours. She did not actually envision someone working from…say…midnight to nine o'clock in the morning.

    She said she would think about whether to allow me to do so and get back to me after she talked it over with her husband. But, I've decided to go a different route. It will require me to spend another week setting everything up before I even know it it will actually work or not, but in the meantime, I'm going to go ahead and try trading just during the middle portion of the New York session.

    This will not be as desirable as trading the entirety of the London AND New York sessions. Nonetheless, I think that having recently delineated each of the various trade setups that are at my disposal is going to empower me with the ability to pinpoint super promising trade opportunities even within this limited scope, so that I will still enjoy a decent return most days (but not always).

    Moreover, because I have painted such vivid pictures of what I expect to see, if and when it doesn't happen, I will know almost immediately to abandon the corresponding trade expeditiously, so that most losses should be a fraction of the average gain. But gain, not always.

    For example, the potential trade opportunity I identified last night (see the quote box below) took a total of twelve hours to unfold, with more than half that time needed to "let profits run" (for about 40 pip’s worth of gains) once the position was actually entered:
    But, all of this morning's trades were executed within a window of Internet access opportunity of only about two hours, and given little more than two or three hours additional time to continue developing as they were monitored sporadically, thus seriously limiting the potential size of the winning trades to that of the losing trade...

    ScreenHunter_12179 Jul. 25 10.31.jpg

    I trust this will change next week if the base of operations I have in mind is in place by then. However, I wanted to go ahead and get started today anyway so as not to make any excuses for failing to follow through on my stated intention to see whether there might be any validity to the principles on which I base my approach. Accordingly, if every day this week is profitable (regardless of how small) I will be happy.

    Until I know for a fact what kind of success rate I will indeed be looking at using this "Bias Overlap" version of Numerical Price Prediction, I intend to stick to a trade size of 0.01 lots. If the system does eventually prove to be as profitable as I suspect it can be, I will increase this size incrementally—little-by-little—until I'm typically trading one whole lot per each position I open.

    upload_2022-7-25_11-46-30.png
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2022
    #11     Jul 25, 2022
  2. expiated

    expiated

    Tuesday | July 26, 2022 | 8:10 AM PST

    ScreenHunter_12190 Jul. 26 08.04.jpg
     
    #12     Jul 26, 2022
  3. expiated

    expiated

    Wednesday | July 27, 2022 | 2:42 AM PST

    Because I no longer have 24/7 access to the Internet, a situation I hope to resolve by Friday of this week, I purchased EURGBP prematurely, base solely on structure given that I am unable to monitor the market uninterrupted for the exact moment my buy signal triggers; and as a result, I am now looking at a Floating P/L of -2.05.

    Hopefully the rate will reverse course before my stop is hit. But, if not, I will simply have to reenter a long position sometime after the signal actually does trigger, since it is almost inevitable that this pair will turn north eventually.

    ScreenHunter_12195 Jul. 27 02.25.jpg

    I would like to maintain a success rate above 90%. But, if this trade does not work out, I guess that will just have to wait.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2022
    #13     Jul 27, 2022
  4. expiated

    expiated

    The return from nas100 "should" have been three or four times what it was, but its spasm-like hesitancy to continue climbing and erratic movements scared me into drastically lowering my target just to get out of the position without a loss. On the other hand, by the time I bought spx500, the market had gone from chaotic to virtually dead. Yet once again, the suspicious way the indices move as opposed to the currency pairs led me to lower my original target, which would have eventually been hit, as with the nas100 trade, had I elected NOT to lower it just to get out of the situation without a loss. Nonetheless, I'd do the same thing again, because I have been bitten by the indexes when they are behaving stupidly, and I'd rather be satisfied with a small gain then end up regretting a sizable loss.

    ScreenHunter_12200 Jul. 27 07.15.jpg

    After 24 hours, EURGBP simply refuses to cooperate with me by climbing to a more typical level with respect/in comparison to the forty-day baseline...

    ScreenHunter_12201 Jul. 27 07.51.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2022
    #14     Jul 27, 2022
  5. expiated

    expiated

    The only reason the AUDJPY trade was a loss was because I woke up and plugged in my laptop AFTER the pair had crested in profit territory. It SHOULD have been in my win column, gosh darn it!

    upload_2022-7-28_5-41-46.png

    The equipment I ordered that will enable me to keep my laptop connected virtually 24/7 arrived last night, so I will pick it up today and try it out over the weekend to test whether it really does work as I understand it should. If it does, incidents like this -$2.75 loss should come to an end, because I will be monitoring my positions continuously rather than using the forced down time as nap time; and there should be no more losses of the -$3.16 nature due to the fact I will be able to wait until all parameters confirm the ideal configuration for position entries rather than be forced to execute trades based solely on market structure due to the limited windows of opportunity offered during intermittent Internet connection.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2022
    #15     Jul 28, 2022
  6. Overnight

    Overnight

    It's not an ultimate test if you do not scale up.

    We're tired of your 30 journals where you will promise you will scale up and compound, but seriously? This is getting really, really old man. I mean, this has been going on for YEARS!

    I understand your desire to perfect everything you are doing, but you will NOT REACH PERFECTION! Just DO IT! DO IT DO IT DO IT! NOW!

    It is the only way you are going to escape the black hole of your experiments.

    DO IT DO IT DO IT!

     
    #16     Jul 28, 2022
    studentofthemarkets and maxinger like this.
  7. maxinger

    maxinger


    I doubt he will scale up trade quantity.

    But he will scale up from 30 Journals to 100 Journals to 1000 Journals and beyond.
    He looks more like a professional writer.
     
    #17     Jul 28, 2022
  8. expiated

    expiated

    By the time I got on line at 6:45 AM PST, all the most obvious moves had already taken place, and seeing as how I have a number of errands to run today an am therefore not going to sit around waiting for other potential opportunities to unfold (or not), this ends the week for me...

    ScreenHunter_12215 Jul. 29 08.39.jpg

    Given that I'm currently trading under less than ideal conditions, I can be satisfied with the 85% success rate, but that's the absolute minimum of what I find acceptable (at least for me personally). To transition from being merely satisfied to being happy with the performance record, I will have to see that figure eventually climb north of 90%, if I can manage to accomplish this. I think the key will be in how I apply my "temporal" measures.

    My average loss is greater than my average gain, but I don't know if that's ever going to change. (So long as the gains continue to outnumber the losses by a factor of three-to-one or better however, it's not likely to trouble me all that much.)
     
    #18     Jul 29, 2022
    studentofthemarkets likes this.
  9. expiated

    expiated

    Monday | August 1, 2022 | 8:45 AM PST

    All of the GREAT setups unfolded during the hours I chose to sleep last night, so I was forced to settle for scraps this morning.

    Over the weekend, I reviewed the "lessons" I presented in the book I wrote on my system (which I've decided I am NOT going to publish) and fused them with the "Bias Overlap" version of Numerical Price Prediction for application starting this morning.

    Unfortunately, I implemented it incorrectly with respect to USDCAD, leading to a -$1.76 loss. As for AUDJPY, I made the mistake of setting a stop loss that was too tight. Had I given myself a little bit more room, that trade would have been profitable, seeing as how the pair ultimately rose to my take-profit target at 92.92.
    ScreenHunter_12227 Aug. 01 08.15.jpg

    I actually lost money this morning, which I expect to NEVER do. But, God willing, I anticipate there will be many days in the future where 100% of my trades are profitable, so at this point, I'm not going to fret over this. And besides, I still have two positions open. If they both return gains, today might turn out to be profitable after all. USDCAD is stubbornly in the red so far, but EURUSD is slightly in the black, so...

    Update: No, wait a minute! EURUSD is now solidly in the black, so let me see if I can adjust my levels and get a win out of this pair...

    ...Yeah, super! This puts me over the top with respect to closed positions. So, if I can at least exit USDCAD at break even, I will have abided by my mandate to never have a losing day, if at all possible...

    upload_2022-8-1_8-42-57.png
     
    #19     Aug 1, 2022
  10. expiated

    expiated

    When USDCHF rose to commit a "thirty-four minute boundary violation" in the presence of very bearish eight-, 16- and 32-hour baselines, it offered me a potential opportunity to extend my gains in terms of closed positions.

    It then climbed even higher to become an "eight-hour-baseline errant son." But unfortunately, though the technology I purchased last week does allow me to "check in" on my positions 24/7, (something I had been unable to do since March of this year), it is not so convenient as to make constant and continuous monitoring possible. Consequently, I am still entering positions based primarily on structure rather than my instantaneous moving averages, making it impossible for me to maximize gains by executing trades the exact moment the corresponding signals trigger, as was true in this case, where one could argue (justifiably) that I entered the position prematurely.

    Nonetheless, a win is a win, and I'm happy to acknowledge it...

    ScreenHunter_12232 Aug. 01 15.14.jpg

    On the other hand, USDCAD has not been so kind. The rate continued to climb to such an extent that the two-hour price flow is now bearish instead of bullish. Yikes! My only reasons for optimism are that the eight-hour baseline remains essentially neutral, and the 16- and 32-hour baselines are still slightly bearish. This would suggest that, theoretically at least, price will eventually return to the eight-hour baseline, at which point, my levels are set to exit the trade at break even. I can only hope the pair does so before stopping me out.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2022
    #20     Aug 1, 2022