No problem. And yes, I understand. Then it might not be a bad idea to forward test in sim for a couple months, and even if you don't take all the trades at least keep a detailed spreadsheet on entries, exits, MFE and MAE to at least have some data to fall back on. The other thing I might suggest is looking at a shorter time frame for your trendlines if this is for daytrading. I look at TL's on the hourly charts as the maximum time frame for daytrades. And they do seem to work quite often, at least on the indices. But bottom line, whatever your strategy is don't neglect the hard data. I can't tell you many times I've perused a bunch of charts and noticed what seemed like an incredibly consistent pattern ("many times the market respects my lines") which actually ended up being a coin toss (or failed miserably) in any kind of test. You can still make things like that work with position sizing and management, but it does help to be armed with some data. Again, good luck.
let me help u out darktrader: Facts: 1) u loss a lot of money since 2008 2) u don't have a profitable trading system 3) u don't have a job 4) your saving will dry up in 2 years Solution: u need help. u are suffering gambling addiction. If i were u, i stop trading and seek a license psychologist. It is the leverage and the volatility that is attracting u. u cant run away from it. u are addicted. The odds of u losing in the next 2 years is 99.9%. Think about this, the house is winning and will always win. The reason why the house is winning because they have a strict employment policy meaning if anybody overtrading and losing money will result employment termination asap. More than 90% of small traders lose in a "Spectacular Fashion." They just lose!!!! If u disagree with me which i think u will, good luck.
You were in the best case scenario to put some of your funds in safer asstes for the last two years which probably would have doubled your available capital while you paper traded intraday to learn for a couple years .
Emg Respect your analysis. And your other posts as well. I believe very few of us are blessed with the a structured entry into the markets. Most of us first see the pot of gold and run towards it. Who keep at it, either get it some do or vanish. You and I both know, he will not take ur advice. As such, All the help he needs wouldbe the least we can do. As I hoped I had some one to help me and tell me what not to do at those DARK times. Ur alright EMG.
Be warned that programming trendlines is a tricky thing .... hard to get the kind of result you want. It seems like it will be almost impossible for you to come out ahead paying 600/month for an office. But anyway, good luck.
If you hold small losers until they become large losers and if you average down, it means you're trading against the trend and trying to pick tops and bottoms. Support is only support when buyers find value at that level and come back into the market there with enough power to overtake sellers; resistance is only resistance when sellers overwhelm the buyers at that level. If you sell resistance and buy support, your stop is a break of that level, meaning very small losses. If you hold through a breakout and then add to the position as it moves against you, you're fighting a trend that is not yet over, or you're fighting a new trend, unable to shift your mindset from the old one. The good news about being a trader who's lost a lot of money is you have an enormous edge. How many traders make $200,000 on a $400,000 account in a year? Not many. Yet you lost that much, therefore you had a massive edge, but were doing the opposite of what you should've been doing. If you do the opposite of what you were doing (most likely you were fighting a trend or trying to pick tops/bottoms), you'll make money. All the best to you!
Darktrader, Every trader knows what its like to struggle and I hope you don't give up. One thing I want to add as a practical matter is that you try to detach yourself from the value of money as much as possible by either trading on a sim or continue trading 1 contract and working a regular job. It will take you some time, but your experience will be worth more than any indicator, book, or guru you pay for. Good luck on your journey, this game can be won but it is reserved for the elite few that work harder and are more persistent than anyone else.
Thanks Instynct for your post, unfortunately I don't have a job and if I had a job I couldn't spend all the time I'm spending on trading. But of course if I had a job or more money, or no wife and no daughter I could trade with less stress, and avoid many errors, also I don't want to simulate because it would not be the same, maybe I could do both, trading live and simulate at the same time.
emg, I don't disagree, reading what I wrote it is normal to think that I suffer of gambling addiction and that I will dry up my money in two years or probably less than 2 years, (because of the very bad stocks I own: IRE-C-WFC-BAC-TOM2.AS-QCE.DE and other bad stuff like this). but I'm not taking trading this way, I mean with a gambling attitude, I'm trading with the minimum size, and as I said i put all those bad stocks in a different account that I can't trade, I'm just trading with a small account of $3500 now, when those $3500 will be gone, I will trade sim and i will stop trading if I wont have good results in the next year. at this point, after all that I've lost and all the effort I'm putting now on this, to give up would be stupid I think.
Hello it is about midnight here, so tired, I read all your post, and also private email I received, thanks to everybody for your support, I will replay to all of you tomorrow morning.