Anyone else buying puts today? I started adding July $65,$70 puts on EXPE and bought some JNPR $12.50 Oct puts Thoughts? EXPE just looks like the perfect short from this high $60's level -
i was going to point that out. take a looks at USAI' s chart. It has been under heavy heavy accumulation and recently broke out in the mid $30ish range. There were even several days where USAI would buck the trend of a down Nasdaq day. For some reason, the street loves USAI's 3 recent buyouts of EXPE, ROOM, TREE....ROOM especially is one that has ran up from the low $50ish range to the mid $80ish range...that will give you an idea of how far USAI has run and how much premium is priced into this deal. Who knows?? sometimes being a contrarion works really well. If you could find out in real time what kind of short interest is ongoing for these plays, that could possibly help knowing how much of this is a legitimate run or markup.
EXPE... is a horrible short... I dont know when you guys will learn never to short the strongest stocks in the market... Every rally the market gets the stock will go up even more.... by the time it starts coming down.. you are already stopped out. Never, Never, try to pick tops.... rallies will always go on longer than most people think... just look how many people got burned shorting EBAY --MIKE
IMO and from an objective point of view, USAI is in a "so far" valid broad pattern and currently near a low risk spot for a swing short. Here's the weekly.....
Im new to options so please fill me in if im missing something here- The June $15 puts are $2.20 and JNPR pps today is around the $13 level...so im buying these puts right now in the money. If the stock close around say the $13 level on EXP day I made 2 points per contact correct?
this is so very painfully true...i remember like yesterday...a so called guru's top pick of the 1st quarter was to short EXPE in the low $40's....keep in mind this was back in early winter/Februaryish 2002. If you look back in hindsight, this would have been acutally the best point of long entry. EXPE is an amazing machine. Its much like EBAY in that the shorts have basically checked into the roach motel...they never left...EXPE has almost pulled a double double now in a year or so...do not forget it split this year also......picking near term tops is indeed a tricky business.....
if JNPR closed @ $13 at expiration...yes the value of your contracts woudl be $2.00 but you would still lose .20 because you paid $2.20 for premium....your break even is $12.80...anything less is profit