I'm am looking into purchasing long dated puts on TLT. My thinking is that there will come a time when the Fed will need to raise rates. Suspending disbelief, and actually assuming that the talking heads are right and we will be recovering by 2010, won't Treasuries have to come down as the Fed scrambles to control rates? The only way I can not see this working out is if we end up like Japan and maintain extremely low rates for years and years. Does anybody have any opinion as to what the best date/strike would be for this trade? Maybe an different instrument entirely?