Putin playing chess - Obama playing marbles

The West is going to help the Ukraine about as much as we helped Hungary in '56

 

Or S. Vietnam in 75', even though we "promised".

 

So putin is done taking over countries? I have nothing but a spectators view but there are many articles, like this one and this one is from 2011.

Putins ambitions have been telegraphed by Putin himself.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...in-is-trying-to-take-Russia-back-in-time.html

If Vladimir Putin plays his cards right, by the time he has finished ruling Russia, he will have spent more time in power than Leonid Brezhnev, the great bear of the Soviet era. Poised to return as president next March, after a four-year stint as prime minister, Putin would be 71 in 2024 at the conclusion of two six-year terms in the Kremlin. Whether he lasts that long we shall see, but thanks to a recent encounter with a plastic surgeon’s scalpel, we can at least be sure that he will never look as old as his predecessor in the Kremlin. And as he has laid bare his intentions to retake the centre stage, Putin has been rolling back the years in other ways.
This week he has unveiled a grand vision to create a “Eurasian Union” linking old Soviet neighbours, foreseeing a “powerful, supranational union, capable of becoming one of the poles of the modern world”. Coming from a former KGB colonel who described the break-up of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century”, his words could easily prompt fears that he wanted to resurrect the USSR. He stressed that wasn’t the case. “It would be naive to try to restore or copy what was in the past. But time dictates that we should have closer integration based on values, politics and economics,” he wrote. The Eurasian Union could provide an “economically sound and balanced partnership” with the European Union.
So what does Putin want? His idea of a fully functioning revisionist fraternity seems a non-starter. Its success is likely to be as cosmetic as his recent operation. A customs union agreed with Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2009 is still very much a work in progress. Kazakh officials privately admit that they are not doing well out of the deal. It is hard to see who, from the 15 republics that were in the USSR, would welcome Moscow’s entreaties.
The three Baltic states – Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania – are happily independent and tired of Russia’s sneering and cyber-bullying. Ukraine, which would be crucial to any new alignment, wants to join Europe and has not appreciated Russia’s threats to its gas supply. The other “Stans” – Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan – have shown a desire to balance their foreign policy interests between Moscow, China and Washington.
“It is utterly pie in the sky,” says James Nixey, Russia analyst at the Chatham House think tank. “This is Putin living in the past, trying to recreate the supposed glories of his first stint as president. The fact is Russia has no mates, and if you don’t have any real friends this won’t work. The EU may have its problems with the eurozone, but it is still more attractive than something that harks to the past.”

and this one...

http://www.voanews.com/content/soviet-union-light-future-putin-russia/1521341.html


In Tbilisi, however, Prime Minister-apparent Ivanishvili, met with NATO’s top official for the South Caucasus and pledged his government will go forward with Georgia’s application to join the NATO alliance.

For Putin, NATO membership for Georgia would be crossing an unacceptable "red line."

Russia’s president envisages a federation of sovereign states, with everyone's foreign, defense and economic policies guided by the Kremlin. A common-currency project had been proposed, but that was shelved after the eurozone problems erupted.

Lilit Gevorgyan, analyst for Russia and the former Soviet Union at HIS Global, watches Putin’s progress from her office in London.

“Russia wants to become a global power broker," she said, "and it also wants to spread its ... political and economic influence, and it just makes logical sense for Putin to, first of all, reinstall [Moscow's] political and economic influence over the former Soviet countries.”


and the Financial Times...
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c7ed1c04-76f6-11e3-807e-00144feabdc0.html

January 7, 2014 4:54 pm
Putin’s attempt to recreate the Soviet empire is futile

 

A lot of wild stretches in the imagination in this article, but who knows? Who can say what Putin will or will not do with absolute certainty but the man himself? All I can tell you is that it is very unlikely he is looking to re-establish the former soviet union.

 

The first two parts of this article provide pretty good background:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...hows-trail-of-warning-signs-west-ignored.html

 

I left out one thing, I once studied the economy of the Soviet Union in college. Our professor was the guy who briefed Congress and edited the books Congressional committees received. Other than his prediction that its Military spending could not be sustained because it was 1 / 3 of its GDP and therefore its generals would lose power... (and that it was the U.S. job to make sure it did not blow up the world as it broke up) He very clearly explained the other problem for Moscow. The USSR had its people in one place, its food in another, its resources in another and that it was a massive infrastructure concern / problem for them.

I read that Russia still has to import all sorts of food and goods in exchange for its energy. I am sure this makes Putin concerned. Even on this thread there is talk of embargo and economic sanctions. What dictator would not want to be self reliant? The next step may depend on the backbone of the E.U. and the U.S.

 

Trust me, if you read an article on it, Putin has considered it and obviously believes he has the edge.

 

which is the title of the thread and the point the representative rogers was making when he said Putin is playing chess and Obama is playing marbles.

Putin is moves ahead of Obama's team. And our team just seems dangerous. Leaders who just keep getting outsmarted may eventually do something very stupid to save face.

 

That was an excellent article. Very telling was the mention that, despite the Ukraine incident, Putin's approval rate at home is 67.7% (which is a 7 point increase since the prior month!) People thinking Putin is bluffing, or will back down are smoking crack. The man has his people behind him, and he's got the advantage - both in geography and the jump to action.

The last thing you'll ever see is a Russian politician back down when he has the advantage AND the people behind him. It's hard for many in the west to grasp the mindset. Living over there for years, learning the language, marrying into the culture has taught me a lot about them.

 

Of course he is. Obama is way, way out of his league. He may have some advisers that know a good deal about Russia, but the guy calling the shots is a substitute teacher.