You now clarified my understanding that you must get intra-day prices of all strike for their options in order to carry out meaningful backtesting, don't? Otherwise the only way to do is realtime forward testing, as you mentioned above. That means, before any forward testing, the answer is simply Unsure for trading futures or any other markets/instruments, I would guess.
Yes, your correct. I have learned so much in the last 15 years and I am still learning things practically everyday. It never stops! If I could go back 15 years, I would record data like this: Opening Price: ??? Low Price before the High Price: ??? High Price: ??? Low Price after the High Price: ??? Closing Price: ??? The most intelligent statement about the markets I have ever heard is, "never believe those who say they have it all figured out, because its a continuous learning process that never stops." Jeff
Holy Grail! As you can attain 75% accurate/winning when trading long premium options that sometimes last for multiple days, considering the expensive cost of time value decay for multiple-day options, I would think your Purely mechanical system almost have it all figured out already. Congratulations!
I entered the following orders this morning: SPY DEC 137 Calls ( SPY at 135.18) Buy No. 1: 1.80 (filled) Sell Limit: 2.35 (30%) Buy No. 2: 1.35 (not filled yet) Sell Limit: 1.95 (44% + 8%) Stop: 1.15 (- 36% + -15%) Maximum Potential Profit: 44% + 8% = 52% Maximum Potential Loss: -36% + -15% = -51%
Update thru November 16, 2012: 11-01-12 SPY NOV 143 puts Buy Limit: 1.85 (filled) Sell Limit: 2.40 Stop: 1.30 This trade was closed at breakeven (1.85) on 11-02-12. ------------------------------------------------------------------ 11-02-12 SPY DEC 145 Calls Buy Limit: 1.85 (filled) Sell Limit: 2.40 Stop: 1.30 A new confirming call signal on 11-05 mandated a second buy on the 11-02-12 call trade and new trade parameters to accommodate Buy 2: SPY DEC 145 Calls Buy 1: 1.85 (filled) Buy 2: 1.35 (filled) Sell Limit: 1.95 (+44% + +5%) Stop: 1.20 This trade closed at 1.95 on 11-06-12: +49% ------------------------------------------------------------------- 11-08-12 SPY DEC 141 Calls Buy Limit: 1.85 (filled) Sell Limit: 2.59 (+40%) Stop: 1.20 (-35%) if tanks before hitting profit, Buy Limit No. 2: 1.26 (filled lower than 1.35 due to option gap down opening) New Sell Limit: 1.85 (44%) Stop: 1.20 (-35% + -11%) This position was sold on time limit today (11-13-12) at breakeven 1.56 (B1=1.85 + B2=1.26 = 3.11 divide by 2 = 1.56). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11-16-12 SPY DEC 137 Calls ( in at SPY at 135.18) Buy No. 1: 1.80 (filled) Sell Limit: 2.35 (30%) Buy No. 2: 1.35 (didn't fill) Sell Limit: 1.95 (44% + 8%) Stop: 1.15 (- 36% + -15%) Maximum Potential Profit: 44% + 8% = 52% Maximum Potential Loss: -36% + -15% = -51 This trade sold within a few hours at the 2.35 (30%) sell limit. (out at SPY at 136.55, roughly a 12-13 point SPX move) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- November 2012 to date: 11/1/2012 put trade: breakeven 11/2/2012 call trade: +49% 11/8/2012 call trade: breakeven 11/16/2012 call trade: +30% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Done for the week and heading out with the wife shopping, have a good weekend everyone. Jeff
Opened new trade: SPY Dec 141 Calls Buy No. 1: 1.70 (filled) Sell Limit: 2.25 (32%) Buy No. 2: 1.30 (not filled) Sell Limit: 1.82 (40% + 7%) Stop: 1.15 (-32% + - 12%) Maximum Potential Profit: 47% Maximum Potential Loss: -44%
I just closed this trade at 1.65 ( -3% ). I missed seeing a call warning indicator in the trading program this morning. "Oh well, caught it late without too much damage." Jeff
As you may occassionally have to hold an overnight position with both 1stBuy and 2ndBuy already fillled, however any overnight gap on the options prices and therefore the maximum risk/loss could be still beyond your control in reality. That means, I would guess, go-fishing during day time is OK, but go-fishing (or sleeping peacefully) overnight for the 2ndBuy-mode positions can be risky!!! Even all the 1stBuy-Only-mode (without any 2ndBuy) positions would also have the same issue. A profitability relying too much on stop-loss or 2ndBuy is a kind of (over-)optimisation, imo. Just 2 cents! Q ------------------------------------------------------------------- 11-08-12 SPY DEC 141 Calls Buy Limit: 1.85 (filled) Sell Limit: 2.59 (+40%) Stop: 1.20 (-35%) if tanks before hitting profit, Buy Limit No. 2: 1.26 (filled lower than 1.35 due to option gap down opening) New Sell Limit: 1.85 (44%) Stop: 1.20 (-35% + -11%) This position was sold on time limit today (11-13-12) at breakeven 1.56 (B1=1.85 + B2=1.26 = 3.11 divide by 2 = 1.56). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UQ
A couple of reasons, I am older, have never traded futures before and would hate to have to learn something new from scratch at my age. I really dislike trading anything on margin, I use a cash only account for options and have been happy doing it this way for many years. "Any lastly, just fear of the unknown." Jeff