Cool! Running out of money, this came straight from Dustin in something I listened to, I think the annual report clearly stated they do not have the money to survive the next year. Regardless of what funds they have on hand, they are not selling anything yet. This needs to be fixed. Until then, the short story is compelling and the go long argument is weak sauce. They say the CP2 issue is fixed, again, need to learn production numbers. Sure, Augusta has been started, but it is just dirt. I was there two days ago. There is no site prep, they can't move anything on site. I bet the equipment in Texas is just sitting around. Again, I recall they said they are waiting on proving Ironton in order to obtain financing for Augusta. Find me. proof this is anything other than at a standstill... Even if they have production, I'd love to know how long before the money rolls in. What is the rail transport system like? How long until the product moves to where it will be used? Will it move to one of the partner plants that blends it, then have to go further? Regardless, when does the money roll in? They might have purchase orders, but that is not the same as money in the bank. [SHOW ME THE MONEY] Short float- I really don't give a damn. Too many harping on that on socials. When Taser went ballistic, it was because they had a product to sell. PCT- where is the product to sell. Shorts might well have a long time to cover. New longs- from where will they come? This company is too small for Billions to roll in and they have no sales. Production will help. They might well be at an inflection point, but risk is not off yet. F the TAM, too many people selling that hopium
Wow. That's pretty cool. When I see a retail operation that is getting a lot of financial press, or a restaurant, I always make calls to any friends I might have in the various cities they are opening in and sic their wives on them. I even got @Baron to hit up a new Portillo's in Orlando. He wasn't too impressed. The stock has languished since then too. My new one that I have feelers out on is Sweetgreens. I think it has come too far too fast. I do like Celsius as a drink. I buy them all the time, but I have noticed they are using promotions quite a bit, as are all the energy drinks. To me, that's more of a commentary on the average consumer in the bigger picture of things. A $4 12-ounce can of go-go juice is certainly a discretionary item, and one that is probably one of the first to go when folks are feeling pinched financially. I learned a lot about plastic recycling yesterday digging into this one. Ashamed to say, we don't recycle, but now I'm picking up every container in the house looking at the number to see what type of plastic it is. Interesting stuff. I had no idea. It's funny, in NYC (I was reading various recycling policies) they want you to wash and dry your zip-lock bags before putting them in the recycling bin. Hell if I'm gonna do that, I'll just use them again. Duh. Lol... this: Yeah, rattle that cage and you'd probably end up finding out your on some no-fly list the next time you show up at the airport. That, and your PC/laptop would start acting real squirrley out of the blue.
Do you have any insight or knowledge of US or foreign legislation as it impacts PP5 recycling? How about with post consumer content of PP? I've heard Europe might be more aligned with this. Please don't take my thoughts as being an Ahole, I really want dialogue on this company, but have to give a voice to the bear argument.
That is one of the first things I noticed with that aerial pic you post of the Denver PA facility, I was like "where's the railroad tracks?" Ironton is a good location though. I think I read, (it might be old news), that they got a bond issue approved by some Ohio commission for $18mm. They are probably comfortable with PCT using all those solvents there along the Ohio River. If there's a leak, the worst that can happen is it might kill off some of the 3-headed/two-tailed, 100 lb Dupont catfish swimming along the bottom there.
1) The financing occured on September 11th closed that Friday, after the latest call. They have 100m+ on the balance sheet. https://ir.purecycle.com/news-event...e-announces-financing-transaction-and-ironton 2) CP2 - agree the production numbers will provide the proof the issue is fixed. If you look at the curve of progress from May, to July and to September you will see uptime and run rate both improving exponentially. I expect this trend to continue and we will see 100% by EOY. 3) In terms of building Augusta. Most of the money and time goes into the pre assembly on the ground - things like the extruders. Much of that equipment has been ordered but it takes months to produce, you will see some of the money in the most recent financing is going towards that for that reason. There will of course be a full raise post Ironton commissioning but the current blocker on timing (long lead items) has been addressed. Augusta build will be easy at that point, just level, finish off utilities and assemble the equipment. 4) Money will be paid to PCT upon delivery of product to end customer. There may be some money coming in Q4 but I expect revenue to start in earnest Q1. Right now everything being produced is going to core customers for final testing/approval, including figuring out which particular type of compounding they will want. 5) Positioning - 3m ADV with 44m interest. There is money on the sideline watching this name, I know some of them personally. To each their own on how to trade the name.
Not a problem. For context, the agreements in place exist in the current regulatory environment, I see incremental regulation as only an extra positive for the value prop of the business. EU already has a tax on virgin plastics, that market is incredibly green. In the US, each state has their own policies. The company actually put a slide together showing current status (slide 10): https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.ne...10744/pdf/PCT+1Q24+Corporate+Update+FINAL.pdf Additionally, legislation is introduced from time to time at a national level but in my view states are most likely to push this. https://www.packagingdive.com/news/reduce-act-tax-virgin-plastic-single-use-packaging/694598/
Since no one has said it, allow me. Welcome to ET. It's a fun forum. Colorful to say the least. But well written threads do get respect. I have a couple questions. 1st, when you say 100% of the tradable float is short, are you talking about the portion of the float that is not held institutionally? Because there is no way 100% of the entire float is short. It's less than 40 mm shares, granted that can pretty much be described as high as f.... but it's also pretty far away from the 164mm shares that are out there. (Don't gnat's ass me to those exact numbers, I read them yesterday and I don't feel like looking them up atm, but the float is not 100% short. UNLESS, as I just mentioned, you are excluding share held institutionally.) When you say that all of the product they produce this quarter is already sold, do you have any idea as to who is buying it? Is there a signed contract? And along those lines, what is the deal with the P&G (not the patents) arrangement that was mentioned in the 10Q? They're just a riverboat ride away for the final product, not sure if whatever #5's they use are made next to the river. They're smart, and there is zero doubt in my mind that Ironton location didn't just fall out of the sky. As I remarked in an earlier post... (imo) PG still has their hands all over this pie. If you draw a flow-chart of this thing, it seems to be like a 3 legged stool. The feedstock side is what concerns me the most. I think they have the nuts and bolts of costs figured out, and the cashflow part based on future sales with regards to that. Also, I agree that the TAM is quite large.... (and I also agree with @nursebee that TAM's with regards to speculative stocks for the most part is just corporate fluff that should be disregarded . But not all stocks, and I think it is fair to say this is not one of them, can the TAM be disregarded. I think it is reasonably fair to use that in your analysis. ) I like it. I wish 100% of the float was short, I'd bet @nursebee's farm. Edit: The first time the ceo so much as dumps one share... I don't care what the excuse is, he could be paying his wife's bail..... That will be a RED FLAG. I'll write that again... THAT WILL BE A RED FLAG.
*FYI It appears that all my posts need to be approved by mods so please bear with belated replies* 1) Short Interest: This is a tracker that I have to keep track of SI % of Float, slightly out of date but it works. You will see I: - remove passive as they are purely flow driven - remove the core holders, these guys have been around from the beginning and will not be selling - removed core pre-IPO/SPAC holders. These folks are mainly Ironton locals who invested during the pre public round. They represent around 30m shares, you will see in the despac docs that they are locked up through commissioning. Additionally, I have spoken with a number of them and they have no intention of selling their shares. - removed company insiders - removed a group of retail investors whom I have confirmed dont intend to sell. - removed some larger holders who have held the entire way. If you do some research on these funds you can find folks who work they and are clearly in for the long haul. People really do not appreciate the true tradeable float on this thing is prob 25-30 million. On Ironton sales agreements. When PCT came public they already had 20 years of production from Ironton pre-sold. All they need to do is deliver it. P&G is the main buyer. The license agreement gives P&G the priority to product, and a royalty that comes in the form of discounted product. On the other end, P&G has the obligation to defend the patents through end of life (2040). The relationship between PCT and P&G is solid. On the feedstock side. The main issue was the that purity of PP5 bales given the prior CP2 constraints - needed roughly 95% pure bales given the prior performance. However, the fixes (as evidenced by the 1m/week production) have solved for this block. Additionally, the company is using existing technology, optical flake sorters that will take the 65-70% PP5 pure bales they buy in the market to 97%+. Given the new CP2 fixes and the sorters the company has really 'overkilled' their solve. Once you are buying standard 65-70% pure PP5 bales, they are cheap and plentiful. Im glad you brought up the first time the CEO sells you bail. You will see that insiders are only buying this stock. The C-Suite, the board, the institutional backers (Sylebra and Samlyn), the only thing they do is buy more. Not a single sale.